Dolphin Research

DIS 3Q26 First Take: Q3 held up better than cautious pre-print expectations. Management reaffirmed FY26–FY27 guidance and added $1bn to buybacks, easing near-term capital concerns.

1) Guidance reaffirmed, buybacks raised. Despite macro volatility, the company kept FY26–FY27 growth targets and lifted FY26 repurchases to $9bn from $8bn.

2) Experience (Parks + Cruise + CP): solid. Revenue beat, and OPM topped 30%, up nearly 300bps YoY.

Industry headwinds persist — oil-driven FX and travel volatility weighed on intl visitation to domestic parks, some domestic guests felt inflation pressure, and Asia parks faced softer local demand and China–Japan air-capacity limits. Disney offset the drag with new lands and a resilient cruise business.

Experience had been the market’s key concern amid higher oil and, at end-Jun, Comcast flagged post-Jun demand softness and ongoing pressure at its Orlando park on its call. That compounded worries into this print.

Actuals were better than feared. Domestic park attendance rose 3% YoY, and per-cap spending increased 4%.

3) Entertainment (Streaming + Film + Linear): mixed. Revenue growth slowed to 6%, with a 15% margin, up 500bps YoY, aided by some deferred content spend.

Streaming grew a steady 11% (incl. ~4% incremental from Fubo TV). Subscription revenue rose 15% on both price and volume, driven by the One Disney+ strategy. Third-party data show Japan/Korea downloads rising on stronger anime/K-drama, underscoring greater focus on intl streaming.

With profitability proven, investor focus has shifted back to growth. However, the company stopped disclosing subs this year, a negative for expectations.

Conversely, films underdelivered despite a favorable product cycle and high theatrical hopes. While part of the box office from 'Toy Story 5' was recognized, 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu' and 'Moana' trailed expectations. 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' was decent overall, but for FY26, recognized upside ahead mainly rests on revenue sharing from the recently released 'Spider-Man' (post-exhibitor split plus IP merchandising).

4) Sports (ESPN Linear + ESPN Streaming): growth ticked up on a low base, helped by the NBA Playoffs and the NFL. As guided last quarter, NBA rights are costly and this year’s Finals were tightly scheduled, limiting monetization expansion and pressuring margins; Q3 OPM fell 500bps YoY.$Disney(DIS.US)

Shopify 2Q26 First Take. Shares jumped nearly 30% pre-mkt right after the print. Growth, profitability and next-quarter guide all beat, setting the stage for details below.

1) Core operating metric: GMV grew 31.6% YoY, well ahead of sell-side consensus at 27.5%; buy-side was looking for 29–30%, so this is a clean beat. Ex-FX, underlying growth was 30%, roughly flat vs. recent quarters.

The real surprise is that the market expected an 'inevitable' material GMV decel. Instead, growth held at a high level.

2) Another key metric, MRR, reached $221 mn this quarter, with YoY growth accelerating to 19.5%. As the drag from free trials faded, growth recovered, modestly topping the 18.4% sell-side view. Taken together, both subscription and payments, the two core engines, grew better than expected.

3) With operating metrics beating, total revenue also topped by nearly 4% vs. sell-side. Merchant Solutions (payments-led) was the main driver, up ~37% YoY and ~4.5% ahead of estimates. Beyond GPV strength, the merchant solutions blended take rate rose ~10bps YoY (a 3-quarter high), another notable tailwind.

4) On profitability, GP rose 31% YoY, well above the ~26% sell-side and 27.5% buy-side expectations. GPM was in line, so the GP beat came entirely from the revenue beat.

OpEx also tracked roughly in line. Hence, the crux of the beat is GMV outperformance (plus a higher merchant solutions take rate), with the upside in revenue, GP and OP flowing from that. From this angle, the beat alone may not justify a near-30% spike.

5) More importantly, the guide for next quarter also meaningfully beat: revenue growth is guided to the low-30% range vs. sub-27% consensus, roughly in line with this quarter. FCF margin is guided to 16%–20%+ (i.e., likely above 20%) vs. 18% this quarter. In short, growth is set to hold while margins expand — a double positive.

Overall, we are also unsure whether a beat of this magnitude warrants a 30% rally. But Shopify has long traded as a sentiment stock; after the AI narrative rotated from consumer to enterprise, the shares and sentiment had already pulled back. By disproving the expected growth slowdown, the print unleashed concentrated bullish sentiment. $Shopify (SHOP.US)

AMD has added several marquee AI customers — OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic — and this time also Microsoft.

That said, the company did not raise its full-year AI GPU guidance, keeping it at $14–15bn.

So the orders are real, but for now they are largely paper commitments.

SpaceX 2Q26 First Take: This was SpaceX's first earnings release, and results were solid. Revenue continued to beat expectations, while losses narrowed faster, putting breakeven within sight. By segment:

1) Launch services: third-party launch volumes increased, with ASP and margins rising against the tide. Starship IFT-13 performed well overall.

Launch revenue was $960 mn, above the $870 mn consensus and up 29% YoY, driven by higher launch services revenue. External Falcon 9 commercial launches reached 10 in the quarter, vs. 7 in Q1 and 9 a year ago, as large customers added missions.

Per-launch pricing also rose, with implied ASP up from ~$54 mn last year to ~$65 mn. The increase primarily reflects a more favorable customer mix, with a higher share from large accounts.

On profitability, GPM improved by ~1,100 bps QoQ to ~66%. Despite expensing Starship test-flight costs (incl. hardware loss) through the launch P&L, margins still rose, supported by higher ASPs. This underscores SpaceX's ability to extract premium pricing given its dominant position and the lack of mature, low-cost alternatives.

On Starship progress, IFT-13 in Jul deployed the first batch of V3 satellites, validated Raptor in-space relight, and captured critical thermal protection system data. The booster was lost in a hard landing after partial engine relight failure, but as the second landing attempt for a V3 booster, the outcome was within a controllable iteration range.

2) Starlink: revenue topped expectations on stronger B2B/Gov., while user growth was broadly in line.

Starlink revenue was $4.29 bn, slightly above the $3.88 bn consensus, on B2B/Gov. strength. SpaceX has signed and activated in-flight Wi-Fi agreements with multiple airlines, and its Starshield unit secured a multi-year U.S. Gov. contract worth over $6 bn.

On B2C, Starlink users reached 12 mn, roughly doubling YoY. Net adds were ~1.7 mn QoQ, broadly in line with expectations.

Pricing remained stable (ARPU $66/month). In mobile, SpaceX secured rights to 65 MHz of spectrum in the U.S. (the former EchoStar 2 GHz band) and several global MSS licenses. While early-stage, SpaceX has effectively declared war on incumbent telcos, planning to launch V2 mobile satellites next year on the EchoStar 65 MHz band and build a terrestrial network to take share from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

3) AI: revenue beat, with a sharp margin improvement.

AI revenue was $2.56 bn, above the $2.08 bn consensus, mainly as the compute lease with Anthropic (monthly fee $1.25 bn) began contributing. Margins improved meaningfully (GPM ~57%; OPM ~-49% vs. -115% expected), driven by premium pricing amid severe compute shortages. We estimate lease rates at ~$30–50 bn per GW, far above peers at ~$10–15 bn per GW.

Note that AI leasing contracts include a 90-day termination clause exercisable by either party. This creates inherent uncertainty in revenue visibility despite current strength.

Big picture, SpaceX's equity story resembles Tesla's: near-term performance is highly event-driven rather than earnings-driven, while a major lockup expiry in Aug 2026 could pressure the stock. The path forward hinges on key milestones: full Starship reusability, first mass launch of V3 satellites, whether Grok 5 exceeds expectations, and sustained signing of AI compute lease orders. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $GS 2x Long SpaceX Dl ETF(SPAL.US) $SPCX 2X Short ETF(SNK.US)

AMD 2Q26 First Take: results broadly in line with the Street. Revenue growth re-accelerated, led by a doubling in the Data Center biz.

Data Center remains the key focus. Dolphin Research estimates AI GPUs (Instinct) delivered approx. $2.7bn this quarter vs. $1.1bn a year ago, with China export controls impacting roughly $0.7–0.8bn in the prior-year base.

For next quarter, the company guides revenue to $12.7–13.3bn, +10–15% QoQ (vs. the Street at $12.6bn). It expects non-GAAP GPM around 56% (in line with consensus).

With other segments relatively stable, we estimate next quarter’s incremental growth will mainly come from Data Center at roughly $1.2–1.8bn (vs. about $1.0bn QoQ this quarter). With MI455X starting to ship, that step-up is not particularly strong.

Investors care more about MI455X progress and the runway from here. Starting with MI455X, the company is shifting from selling chips to delivering rack-scale clusters, which lifts expectations for the AI GPU biz, yet the sequential guide still looks relatively soft.

AMD has announced collaborations with OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, and Microsoft. The market reads this as growing customer acceptance of MI455X and is willing to ascribe a higher multiple on the prospect of faster growth.

Beyond signing wins, investors also want tangible execution, such as a more upbeat outlook, to meet elevated expectations. For more, follow Dolphin Research’s follow-up takes and Trans. $AMD(AMD.US)

SPOT 2Q26 First Take: Q2 was mixed, with headline results broadly in line.

(1) Price hikes are kicking in: Early-year increases in core US/EU markets started to flow through, with ARPPU up 6% YoY.

From Q3 guidance, the benign pricing lift should continue to support revenue.

(2) Ads are stabilizing: Q2 ad revenue was 450 mn, up 1% YoY.

On one hand, the FX headwind has rolled off, removing a passive drag.

In addition, starting this year, ad revenue excludes portions not directly tied to advertising, such as podcast subscription bundles, which have been reclassified into subscriptions.

(3) GPM is not keeping pace with pricing: Q2 GPM ticked up QoQ, with margin improvement in both subscriptions and ads.

However, management guides Q3 GPM down 30 bps QoQ.

(4) Operating investment is steady: Q2 cost control remained focused on R&D, likely via headcount efficiency.

Overall, near-term catalysts are limited.

Palantir 2Q26 First Take: Q2 results offset the Q1 slowdown in US commercial growth and kept the acceleration intact.

1) Guidance raised again: Q2 revenue rose 93% with further acceleration.

While the full-year guide implies a slower 2H growth pace, this is not the first time.

2) US commercial flexes again: Dependence on the US market climbed to 81% in Q2, driven by both expanding Gov. demand (reflecting broad Maven penetration across US agencies) and still-robust enterprise demand.

Management did not raise the 120%+ full-year guide for US commercial, implying 2H growth would slow to 68%.

3) Leading indicators remain healthy: Across TCV, RPO, RDV and customer count, momentum held up and both adoption breadth and depth improved.

(1) TCV represents total contract value of new bookings in the period.

(2) The key difference between RPO and RDV is cancelability, with RDV being broader and including cancellable orders.

(3) Customer adds were also net positive in Q2, led by enterprise clients.

4) GPM improved steadily with tighter cost control: Q2 GPM expanded 400bps YoY and was stable QoQ.

Beyond that, growth in the three opex lines was notably below revenue expansion, while SBC also contracted.

Luckin Coffee 2Q26 First Take: Overall, Q2 was solid despite last year's delivery-subsidy high base. SSSG turned negative to -5.3%, but store openings and user growth drove scale, with revenue up 28.5% YoY and Non-GAAP OP up 26.5%. Notably, delivery expense declined YoY for the first time since the delivery price war, beating expectations.

On a high base, revenue growth slowed QoQ. Q2 revenue was RMB 15.89bn (+28.5% YoY), beating the RMB 15.43bn consensus.

SSSG turned negative to -5.3% as expected. Monthly transacting customers reached 113mn (+23% YoY), a record above the Q3 2025 subsidy peak, suggesting users lost as subsidies faded were replaced by new-store additions and organic growth.

Store expansion accelerated rather than slowed. Luckin added 2,714 net stores in Q2, ending with 36,310 locations (+8.1% QoQ).

Self-operated units continued to outpace franchised stores, indicating ongoing densification in higher-tier cities. Overseas stores reached 223 with 46 net adds, with Malaysia the main contributor.

The marketing ratio edged up. Q2 GPM was 61.5%, down 130bps YoY, likely due to a higher mix of lower-margin raw-material wholesale.

Notably, delivery expense was RMB 1.62bn, down 3.1% YoY—the first YoY decline in absolute terms since the delivery price war began. As a % of revenue, it fell from 13.5% to 10.2%.

Store-level margin was 21.3%, just 20bps below last year. Despite SSSG at -5.3% and store count up 38.6% YoY, unit economics were largely intact, indicating continued efficiency gains at the store level.

In addition, the bottled RTD business formally launched in Q2. The company stepped up related spending, lifting the sales expense ratio by 100bps YoY to 5.8%, while G&A stayed flat.

Non-GAAP OP was RMB 2.396bn (+26.5% YoY). For more details, please follow Dolphin Research's detailed take and call transcript.$Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US)