Tonight $CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH) released its Q1 2026 results. With the annual report just out, the thesis is largely unchanged, so Dolphin Research will keep it brief.

1) Revenue growth underwhelmed. Total revenue was approx. RMB 16.9bn (+~1% YoY), with a slight QoQ deceleration.

In the first CNY peak season after Hainan's customs closure, CTG Duty Free's sales growth was lackluster. By contrast, the offshore duty-free sector overall delivered much stronger sales...

On the evening of Mar 30, $CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE(601888.SH) released its FY2025 annual report. Since a preliminary earnings flash was already published, there is no expectation gap (Bloomberg consensus was simply not updated in time). Dolphin Research therefore reads the results from two angles: ① the latest trend signals emerging from quarterly performance; ② granular data points disclosed only in semi-annual/annual reports. Details below: 1) On the top line, CTG Duty Free delivered total revenue slightly above RMB 13.8bn, up 3% YoY — the first positive growth since 2024. Policy stimulus and progress toward Hainan's customs seal-off are clearly driving an improving trajectory...

A few days ago, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) released its Q3 2025 financial report. Due to previous conflicts with other financial report release times, Dolphin Research is providing a brief commentary today: 1. After a year and a half of continuous decline, revenue growth has finally stabilized: In Q3 2025, the company's total revenue was approximately 11.7 billion yuan, roughly flat year-on-year (partly due to the increasingly lower year-on-year base). This finally marks a stabilization. Consistent with Dolphin Research's previous view, after six consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, the worst period is likely over. The overall performance of the offshore duty-free market is similar to that of the company, with the total offshore duty-free sales in this quarter declining by 2.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow...

On the evening of April 29, $CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH) $CTG DUTY-FREE(01880.HK) officially released its Q1 2025 financial report. Since Dolphin Research had just provided a detailed analysis of the annual performance not long ago, and the information disclosed in the A-share quarterly report is quite limited, this time we will only provide a brief quick review: 1. Has the worst time passed? The decline in revenue is narrowing: In Q1 2025, the company's total revenue was 16.75 billion yuan, with the year-on-year decline narrowing significantly to 11%. Although the downward trend in revenue has not yet been completely reversed, compared to the previous three quarters with revenue declines of around 20%...

On the evening of March 28, $CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH) announced its 2024 annual report: achieving revenue of 56.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion, a year-on-year decline of 36%. The financial guidance continues to show a shrinking trend. Since the basic performance situation was already disclosed in the previous performance announcement, Dolphin Research interprets it from two angles: ① The latest changes reflected in the quarterly performance; ② The signals revealed by the detailed data disclosed only in the semi-annual/annual report, with detailed information as follows: 1. Revenue level...

Profits are decreasing, valuations are falling but becoming more expensive

Valuation retracement can never catch up with profit reduction

The prospect of tax exemption is becoming increasingly hopeless

The valuation seems reasonable now; let's wait for the cycle to turn around.

After such a long price decline, the valuation is still not cheap.