CME Releases Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability for January Next Year

Summary

CME data indicates a 22.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January, with a 77.9% chance of rates remaining unchanged.AnueSec+ 2

Impact Analysis

So, the CME’s latest data shows only a 22.1% chance of a Fed rate cut in January, which is pretty low. This suggests that the market is largely expecting the Fed to hold steady on rates, at least for the short term. The timing here is interesting—right before the holiday season, when liquidity can be thin and market moves can be exaggerated. The low probability of a rate cut might keep bond yields stable, but it also signals that the Fed isn’t seeing enough economic weakness to justify easing. For equities, this could mean less immediate support from monetary policy, so watch for sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, like real estate and utilities. Bottom line—don’t expect a big shift in Fed policy just yet, but keep an eye on any changes in economic data that could alter these probabilities.AnueSec+ 2