JPMorgan Expects EPS of $4.95 in Q4 Earnings Before Report

Summary

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is set to report its Q4 2025 earnings on January 13, with analysts’ consensus EPS estimates ranging from $4.85 to $5.01 and revenue around $46.2 billionbenzinga_article+ 4. The stock has gained approximately 33-35% over the past year and is trading near its 52-week high, though it has recently pulled back from a record set on January 5benzinga_article+ 3. Investor focus is on the 2026 guidance, net interest income, and management’s commentary on the credit card business, which faces political scrutiny over potential rate capsTMT Post+ 2. The bank itself has flagged an expected $2.2 billion provision for credit lossesReuters. Notably, the options market is pricing in a 5.5% post-earnings stock move, almost double the historical average of 2.7%, alongside a rise in put option activity, indicating heightened expectations for volatilitySchaeffers.

Impact Analysis

This JPM print has a tough setup. The stock’s run-up near all-time highs means expectations are sky-high, and a simple beat is already priced inbenzinga_article+ 2. The real tell is the options market, which is pricing in a 5.5% move—double the historical average—and seeing a spike in put activitySchaeffers. That’s the market screaming that the risk is skewed for a volatile reaction.

They want us focused on the strong Q4 EPS beat, but the real story will be forward-looking. Watch the commentary on credit provisions, which the bank already flagged at $2.2B, and any hint of caution in the 2026 NII guideReuters. The political noise around credit card rate caps adds another layer of headline riskSchaeffers. Even with a solid number, the bar is so high that we could easily see a “sell the news” reaction. For positioning, this is a moment for caution. I wouldn’t be adding exposure here; if anything, trimming or buying protection looks like the prudent move.