US Supreme Court to Announce Trump Tariff Policy Ruling on January 20

Summary

The U.S. Supreme Court has indicated it may release rulings on January 20, with a major pending case concerning the legality of President Trump’s global tariffs.Reuters+ 2 The court does not specify in advance which cases will be decided.Reuters If a ruling on the tariff case is not issued, it could be delayed for at least another month.Wallstreetcn Betting markets previously suggested a ~70% probability of the policy being ruled invalid. Trump has personally emphasized the importance of winning the case.HongKong Economic Journal

Impact Analysis

So the market is leaning heavily one way on this SCOTUS tariff decision. Betting odds have put it at a 70% chance of being ruled invalid [], which sets up an asymmetric risk profile for Tuesday. If the court strikes them down, it’s the expected outcome—a positive for importer margins but a strategic whiplash for companies that spent heavily to move supply chains. The real surprise would be if the court upholds the tariffs.

That outcome would be a shock against expectations, cementing the protectionist status quo and validating the ‘decoupling’ thesis. It would punish anyone positioned for a reversal and benefit domestic producers who have been shielded by the tariffs. The trade here is to position for that surprise: long domestic materials (steel/aluminum) and short a basket of retailers or industrial importers. The biggest risk isn’t a ‘wrong’ outcome, but a delay, which just lets the uncertainty fester for another month [Wallstreetcn].