Economic research institute says less than 15% of TSMC's advanced chip capacity will be in the U.S. during Trump's term

Summary

An economic research institute forecasts that during a potential Trump presidency, TSMC’s advanced process capacity located in the United States will remain below 15%. This is despite US pressure and incentives for reshoring, including building multiple fabs in Arizona.Tip Ranks TSMC’s second US fab is set to begin production in the second half of 2027. Meanwhile, the company faces a severe capacity crunch for advanced AI chips, with demand reportedly triple its supply, forcing it to turn away major customers like Nvidia and Broadcom.Wallstreetcn+ 3 To manage this, TSMC is increasing its capital expenditure and focusing on advanced nodes while shifting some mature process production.money.udn.com+ 3

Impact Analysis

So they’re basically confirming what we suspected: the US reshoring narrative is more political theater than operational reality. This <15% number isn’t a sign of failure, it’s a signal of TSMC’s strategic discipline. They’re building just enough in Arizona to appease Washington, but the crown jewels—the core R&D and leading-edge volume production—are staying in Taiwan. The real story isn’t the cost of US fabs, it’s the insane demand picture. They’re telling top customers like Nvidia they can’t meet demand because the AI capacity crunch is that severe.科技新报 This gives them absolute pricing power. Any higher costs from the US are just a rounding error they can easily pass on. The market is too focused on the geopolitical discount and missing the monopoly pricing power in a supercycle. This reinforces the long thesis; the moat is secure. I’d stay long TSM and the semi-cap names like ASML that ride their massive capex wave.Reuters