US Tariff Policy Leads to Significant Job Losses

Summary

Analysis from the Kansas City Fed and other economic data indicate that US tariff policies are causing a significant slowdown in job growth.Zhitong The manufacturing sector has lost over 200,000 jobs since 2023, with employment at a post-pandemic low.JIN10 Projections for 2025 show monthly job gains falling to 75,000, down from 170,000 in 2024, a trend that may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later in the year.Zhitong The January private payroll report confirmed this cooling, with only 22,000 jobs added.AnueSec This slowdown is a sharp reversal from the 2 million jobs added in 2024 to just 584,000 in 2025, hitting sectors like manufacturing, transport, and agriculture directly.

Impact Analysis

So the narrative that tariffs would protect jobs is officially dead. The data is now screaming the opposite. The Kansas City Fed’s analysis is the key signal here—they’re basically giving the market a heads-up that job growth is falling off a cliff, projecting a drop to a miserable 75k per month.Zhitong The latest ADP print of just 22k jobs adds a real-time exclamation point.AnueSec This isn’t a gentle cooling; it’s a policy-induced shock to the labor market.

This completely changes the game for the Fed. Remember Powell’s talk about a solid economy? Huxiu That’s yesterday’s news. The conversation is no longer about inflation but about how quickly they’ll need to cut to stave off a hard landing. The market is being handed a clear reason for multiple rate cuts in late 2025.Zhitong Bottom line: the ‘bad news is good news’ trade is firmly back on. This is a green light to be long duration. I’d be buying Treasuries here, as the Fed will be forced to react to this weakness.