CME Releases Fed Rate Cut Probability for March and Warns of Crypto Investment Risks

Summary

According to the CME “FedWatch Tool” on February 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 21.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 78.4%.AnueSec This represents an increase in rate cut expectations from a week prior, on February 4, when the probability was just 9%.AnueSec The news source that published this data also included a general warning about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies, advising investors to conduct thorough research.AnueSec

Impact Analysis

The market’s repricing of a March rate cut is the main event here—jumping from 9% to over 21% in a week shows traders are getting nervous ahead of the jobs and CPI data.AnueSec+ 2 But don’t get distracted by the headline’s mention of a “crypto risk warning.” That’s just a boilerplate disclaimer from the news publisher, not CME.AnueSec The real signal from CME is their actions: they just launched new altcoin futures and are building a tokenized cash product.Amb Crypto+ 2 They are leaning into crypto, not warning people away.

This tells me two things: First, the macro environment for risk assets remains choppy and highly sensitive to Fed-speak and data prints.Sina Finance Second, the institutional plumbing for crypto is getting deeper regardless. CME is playing the long game, building the tools for institutional adoption. The trade isn’t on the short-term Fed guess; it’s recognizing that CME is becoming a core infrastructure play for the financialization of digital assets.