FOMC and ECB Hold Important Meetings and IMF Spring Conference

Summary

A calendar of upcoming economic events highlights meetings by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and the IMF Spring Meetings.Reuters Recent central bank meetings in March were dominated by the impact of rising oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East.FX678 At its March 17-18 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% after six previous cuts, while upwardly revising growth and inflation forecasts.CoinLive In contrast, the ECB also held rates steady but adopted a more hawkish tone, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% due to energy price risks.香港无线新闻+ 2 This has led to expectations of policy divergence, with analysts predicting ECB hikes while the Fed remains on hold.Investinglive

Impact Analysis

The big signal here is the clear policy divergence opening up between the ECB and the Fed. They’re facing different problems now. The ECB is getting boxed in by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict.FX678 They’re talking hawkishly, raising inflation forecasts to 2.6% 香港无线新闻, and Barclays is even calling for hikes starting next month.CoinLive+ 2 This is happening even as they acknowledge weak growth and rising stagflation risks.Investinglive

Meanwhile, the Fed is simply on pause after a series of cuts, with the US economy seen as more resilient to the energy shock.CoinLive This isn’t a coordinated global cycle anymore. The ECB is being forced to tighten into weakness while the Fed can afford to wait. The clearest way to play this is long EUR/USD. The ECB’s forced hawkishness against the Fed’s patience should drive the cross higher.