What is Cyclical Unemployment?

1035 reads · Last updated: December 5, 2024

Cyclical unemployment is the component of overall unemployment that results directly from cycles of economic upturn and downturn. Unemployment typically rises during recessions and declines during economic expansions. Moderating cyclical unemployment during recessions is a major motivation behind the study of economics and the goal of the various policy tools that governments employ to stimulate the economy.

Definition

Cyclical unemployment refers to the unemployment that results from economic downturns and upturns. During a recession, demand decreases, companies reduce production, leading to higher unemployment rates; conversely, during an economic expansion, demand increases, companies expand production, and unemployment rates decrease.

Origin

The concept of cyclical unemployment originated from the study of economic cycles, particularly when economists began systematically studying economic fluctuations in the early 20th century. Keynesian economics further developed this concept during the Great Depression of the 1930s, emphasizing government intervention to alleviate unemployment during economic downturns.

Categories and Features

Cyclical unemployment is primarily associated with the four phases of the economic cycle: expansion, peak, recession, and trough. During the expansion phase, unemployment is typically low due to increased economic activity; during the recession phase, unemployment rises due to decreased economic activity. It is characterized by its close relation to the overall level of economic activity and is usually short-term, though it can persist longer during severe recessions.

Case Studies

A typical case is the 2008 global financial crisis, during which the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.6% in 2007 to 9.5% in 2009. The unemployment during this period was primarily due to the recession-induced drop in demand. Another example is the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when unemployment rates surged in many countries worldwide due to the sudden halt in economic activities.

Common Issues

Investors often confuse cyclical unemployment with structural unemployment, the latter being long-term unemployment caused by changes in the economic structure. Cyclical unemployment is typically temporary and improves with economic recovery. Investors should monitor economic indicators such as GDP growth rates and unemployment rates to assess the phase of the economic cycle.

Suggested for You

Refresh

The Lisbon Treaty, also known as the Treaty of Lisbon, updated regulations for the European Union, establishing a more centralized leadership and foreign policy, a proper process for countries that wish to leave the Union, and a streamlined process for enacting new policies.The treaty was signed on December 13, 2007, in Lisbon, Portugal, and amended the two previous treaties that established the foundation for the European Union.

Lisbon Treaty

The Lisbon Treaty, also known as the Treaty of Lisbon, updated regulations for the European Union, establishing a more centralized leadership and foreign policy, a proper process for countries that wish to leave the Union, and a streamlined process for enacting new policies.The treaty was signed on December 13, 2007, in Lisbon, Portugal, and amended the two previous treaties that established the foundation for the European Union.

Labor Intensive

The term "labor-intensive" refers to a process or industry that requires a large amount of labor to produce its goods or services. The degree of labor intensity is typically measured in proportion to the amount of capital required to produce the goods or services: the higher the proportion of labor costs required, the more labor-intensive the business.

Labor Intensive

The term "labor-intensive" refers to a process or industry that requires a large amount of labor to produce its goods or services. The degree of labor intensity is typically measured in proportion to the amount of capital required to produce the goods or services: the higher the proportion of labor costs required, the more labor-intensive the business.

Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) are products that sell quickly at relatively low cost. FMCGs have a short shelf life because of high consumer demand (e.g., soft drinks and confections) or because they are perishable (e.g., meat, dairy products, and baked goods).They are bought often, consumed rapidly, priced low, and sold in large quantities. They also have a high turnover on store shelves. The largest FMCG companies by revenue are among the best known, such as Nestle SA. (NSRGY) ($99.32 billion in 2023 earnings) and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) ($91.47 billion). From the 1980s up to the early 2010s, the FMCG sector was a paradigm of stable and impressive growth; annual revenue was consistently around 9% in the first decade of this century, with returns on invested capital (ROIC) at 22%.

Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) are products that sell quickly at relatively low cost. FMCGs have a short shelf life because of high consumer demand (e.g., soft drinks and confections) or because they are perishable (e.g., meat, dairy products, and baked goods).They are bought often, consumed rapidly, priced low, and sold in large quantities. They also have a high turnover on store shelves. The largest FMCG companies by revenue are among the best known, such as Nestle SA. (NSRGY) ($99.32 billion in 2023 earnings) and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) ($91.47 billion). From the 1980s up to the early 2010s, the FMCG sector was a paradigm of stable and impressive growth; annual revenue was consistently around 9% in the first decade of this century, with returns on invested capital (ROIC) at 22%.

Negotiable Instruments

A negotiable instrument is a signed document that promises a payment to a specified person or assignee. In other words, it is a formalized type of IOU: A transferable, signed document that promises to pay the bearer a sum of money at a future date or on-demand.Common examples of negotiable instruments include personal checks, cashier's checks, money orders, certificates of deposit (CDs), promissory notes, and traveler's checks. The person receiving the payment, known as the payee, must be named or otherwise indicated on the instrument. Because they are transferable and assignable, some negotiable instruments may trade on a secondary market.

Negotiable Instruments

A negotiable instrument is a signed document that promises a payment to a specified person or assignee. In other words, it is a formalized type of IOU: A transferable, signed document that promises to pay the bearer a sum of money at a future date or on-demand.Common examples of negotiable instruments include personal checks, cashier's checks, money orders, certificates of deposit (CDs), promissory notes, and traveler's checks. The person receiving the payment, known as the payee, must be named or otherwise indicated on the instrument. Because they are transferable and assignable, some negotiable instruments may trade on a secondary market.

Renewable Resource

A renewable resource is a resource that can be replenished naturally over time. As a result, it is sustainable despite its consumption by humankind.Renewable resources for the production of energy are considered especially important for their potential to replace non-renewable, or finite, resources. Additionally, renewable resources can offer cleaner energy solutions than those provided by non-renewable resources such as coal and fossil fuels.Examples of renewable resources include the sun, wind, water, the earth's heat (geothermal), and biomass.

Renewable Resource

A renewable resource is a resource that can be replenished naturally over time. As a result, it is sustainable despite its consumption by humankind.Renewable resources for the production of energy are considered especially important for their potential to replace non-renewable, or finite, resources. Additionally, renewable resources can offer cleaner energy solutions than those provided by non-renewable resources such as coal and fossil fuels.Examples of renewable resources include the sun, wind, water, the earth's heat (geothermal), and biomass.

Feasibility Study

A feasibility study is a detailed analysis that considers all of the critical aspects of a proposed project in order to determine the likelihood of it succeeding.Success in business may be defined primarily by return on investment, meaning that the project will generate enough profit to justify the investment. However, many other important factors may be identified on the plus or minus side, such as community reaction and environmental impact.Although feasibility studies can help project managers determine the risk and return of pursuing a plan of action, several steps should be considered before moving forward.

Feasibility Study

A feasibility study is a detailed analysis that considers all of the critical aspects of a proposed project in order to determine the likelihood of it succeeding.Success in business may be defined primarily by return on investment, meaning that the project will generate enough profit to justify the investment. However, many other important factors may be identified on the plus or minus side, such as community reaction and environmental impact.Although feasibility studies can help project managers determine the risk and return of pursuing a plan of action, several steps should be considered before moving forward.