What is Profit Forecast?

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Profit forecast is the prediction and estimation of the expected profitability of a company within a certain period of time in the future. Through profit forecast, investors can evaluate the profitability and potential return of a company, and make investment decisions accordingly.

Definition

An earnings forecast is a prediction and estimation of a company's expected profitability over a future period. Through earnings forecasts, investors can assess a company's profitability and potential returns, thereby making informed investment decisions.

Origin

The concept of earnings forecasting originated in the early 20th century, evolving with the rise of modern corporate financial management and investment analysis. Initially, earnings forecasts were primarily used for internal financial planning, but they gradually became a crucial tool for investors and analysts to evaluate company value.

Categories and Features

Earnings forecasts can be divided into qualitative and quantitative forecasts. Qualitative forecasts rely on management experience and market trends, while quantitative forecasts are based on historical data and statistical models. Quantitative forecasts are generally more precise but depend heavily on the accuracy of data and the validity of models. Key features of earnings forecasts include the length of the forecast period, the choice of forecasting methods, and assumptions about the external environment.

Case Studies

A typical case is Apple Inc.'s earnings forecast in 2019. At that time, analysts made optimistic forecasts based on the release of new products and growing market demand, resulting in Apple's actual earnings exceeding expectations. Another case is Tesla, Inc.'s earnings forecast in 2020. Despite skepticism about its profitability, Tesla exceeded expectations by increasing production capacity and expanding market share.

Common Issues

Common issues investors face when using earnings forecasts include the accuracy of predictions and sensitivity to changes in the external environment. Earnings forecasts often rely on the stability of assumptions, so in times of significant market changes, the forecast results may deviate from reality. Additionally, over-reliance on historical data may lead to overlooking potential future changes.

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Liquidity risk refers to the potential difficulty an entity may face in meeting its short-term financial obligations due to an inability to convert assets into cash without incurring a substantial loss. This risk is inherent in both financial institutions and corporations, significantly impacting their operational and financial stability.Liquidity risk is often characterized by two main aspects: market liquidity risk and funding liquidity risk. Market liquidity risk is associated with an entity's inability to execute transactions at prevailing market prices due to insufficient market depth or disruptions. On the other hand, funding liquidity risk pertains to the inability to obtain sufficient funding to meet financial obligations.Liquidity risk is not confined to any particular sector, as it is an important consideration across banks, financial institutions, corporations, and even some individual investors. For banks and financial institutions, liquidity risk management is underscored by regulatory frameworks that mandate certain liquidity standards to ensure financial stability and protect depositor interests. Corporations, too, need to be vigilant in managing liquidity risk to ensure they have adequate cash or credit lines to meet their operational and financial commitments. The ability to manage liquidity risk is essential for ensuring it has enough cash on hand to meet its short term needs and obligations.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk refers to the potential difficulty an entity may face in meeting its short-term financial obligations due to an inability to convert assets into cash without incurring a substantial loss. This risk is inherent in both financial institutions and corporations, significantly impacting their operational and financial stability.Liquidity risk is often characterized by two main aspects: market liquidity risk and funding liquidity risk. Market liquidity risk is associated with an entity's inability to execute transactions at prevailing market prices due to insufficient market depth or disruptions. On the other hand, funding liquidity risk pertains to the inability to obtain sufficient funding to meet financial obligations.Liquidity risk is not confined to any particular sector, as it is an important consideration across banks, financial institutions, corporations, and even some individual investors. For banks and financial institutions, liquidity risk management is underscored by regulatory frameworks that mandate certain liquidity standards to ensure financial stability and protect depositor interests. Corporations, too, need to be vigilant in managing liquidity risk to ensure they have adequate cash or credit lines to meet their operational and financial commitments. The ability to manage liquidity risk is essential for ensuring it has enough cash on hand to meet its short term needs and obligations.

Zero-Proof Bookkeeping

Zero-proof bookkeeping is a manual bookkeeping procedure used in accounting in which posted entries are systematically subtracted from an ending balance to check for errors. In zero-proof bookkeeping, a balance of zero when all entries have been subtracted is proof that the accounting entries have been entered correctly. In this way, this practice is quite similar to keeping a balance sheet, which is a common financial statement issued by firms that balances assets with liabilities and shareholder's equity - such that subtracting the left side from the right side of the balance sheet results in a sum of zero.Zero-proof bookkeeping is employed as part of a double-entry bookkeeping system, where credits (liabilities) and debits (assets) are kept track of simultaneously.

Zero-Proof Bookkeeping

Zero-proof bookkeeping is a manual bookkeeping procedure used in accounting in which posted entries are systematically subtracted from an ending balance to check for errors. In zero-proof bookkeeping, a balance of zero when all entries have been subtracted is proof that the accounting entries have been entered correctly. In this way, this practice is quite similar to keeping a balance sheet, which is a common financial statement issued by firms that balances assets with liabilities and shareholder's equity - such that subtracting the left side from the right side of the balance sheet results in a sum of zero.Zero-proof bookkeeping is employed as part of a double-entry bookkeeping system, where credits (liabilities) and debits (assets) are kept track of simultaneously.

Zero-Gap Condition

A zero-gap condition exists when a financial institution's interest-rate-sensitive assets and liabilities are in perfect balance for a given maturity. The condition derives its name from the fact that the duration gap—or the difference in the sensitivity of an institution's assets and liabilities to changes in interest rates—is exactly zero. Under this condition, a change in interest rates will not create any surplus or shortfall for the company, since the firm is immunized to its interest rate risk for a given maturity.

Zero-Gap Condition

A zero-gap condition exists when a financial institution's interest-rate-sensitive assets and liabilities are in perfect balance for a given maturity. The condition derives its name from the fact that the duration gap—or the difference in the sensitivity of an institution's assets and liabilities to changes in interest rates—is exactly zero. Under this condition, a change in interest rates will not create any surplus or shortfall for the company, since the firm is immunized to its interest rate risk for a given maturity.

Like-Kind Exchange

A like-kind exchange is a tax-deferred transaction that allows for the disposal of an asset and the acquisition of another similar asset without generating a capital gains tax liability from the sale of the first asset.Until the passage of tax legislation in December 2017, that could have included the exchange of one business for another—or one piece of tangible property, such as artwork or heavy equipment, for another. After 2017, a like-kind exchange applies only to the exchange of a business or real estate investment property for another property.

Like-Kind Exchange

A like-kind exchange is a tax-deferred transaction that allows for the disposal of an asset and the acquisition of another similar asset without generating a capital gains tax liability from the sale of the first asset.Until the passage of tax legislation in December 2017, that could have included the exchange of one business for another—or one piece of tangible property, such as artwork or heavy equipment, for another. After 2017, a like-kind exchange applies only to the exchange of a business or real estate investment property for another property.

Identifiable Asset

An identifiable asset is an asset whose commercial or fair value can be measured at a given point in time, and which is expected to provide a future benefit to the company. These assets are an important consideration in the context of mergers and acquisitions.Because not all assets on a company's balance sheet are able to be quickly and accurately valued at a point in time, only those which are may be classified as identifiable. Examples include cash, short-term liquid investments, property, inventories, and equipment, among others.Identifiable assets may be contrasted with goodwill.

Identifiable Asset

An identifiable asset is an asset whose commercial or fair value can be measured at a given point in time, and which is expected to provide a future benefit to the company. These assets are an important consideration in the context of mergers and acquisitions.Because not all assets on a company's balance sheet are able to be quickly and accurately valued at a point in time, only those which are may be classified as identifiable. Examples include cash, short-term liquid investments, property, inventories, and equipment, among others.Identifiable assets may be contrasted with goodwill.

Equity Multiplier

The term equity multiplier refers to a risk indicator that measures the portion of a company’s assets that is financed by shareholders' equity rather than by debt. The equity multiplier is calculated by dividing a company's total asset value by the total equity held in the company's stock. A high equity multiplier indicates that a company is using a high amount of debt to finance its assets. A low equity multiplier means that the company has less reliance on debt. The equity multiplier is also known as the leverage ratio or financial leverage ratio and is one of three ratios used in the DuPont analysis.

Equity Multiplier

The term equity multiplier refers to a risk indicator that measures the portion of a company’s assets that is financed by shareholders' equity rather than by debt. The equity multiplier is calculated by dividing a company's total asset value by the total equity held in the company's stock. A high equity multiplier indicates that a company is using a high amount of debt to finance its assets. A low equity multiplier means that the company has less reliance on debt. The equity multiplier is also known as the leverage ratio or financial leverage ratio and is one of three ratios used in the DuPont analysis.