Investors are waiting for speeches from at least nine Federal Reserve officials this week, including Fed Chairman Powell. Fed Governor Quarles did not comment on monetary policy, but warned that non-bank institutions such as hedge funds and money markets could amplify the pressure of financial tightening and economic slowdown.
Futures traders are betting that there is a 90% probability that the Fed will not raise interest rates in December, mainly due to the increase in non-farm payrolls in October, which has raised expectations of an economic slowdown in the United States and may support the Fed's decision to end the rate hike cycle. The next focus is the October CPI inflation data next week.
However, concerns about a recession in the eurozone have intensified, with the final value of the October PMI falling to the lowest level since November 2020, shrinking for five consecutive months. The service industry has further weakened, and commercial activities have accelerated their decline. The new order index, excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has reached its lowest level in eleven years.
The market expects that the benchmark interest rate of the Fed will only remain above 5% until June next year, and there may be four 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of next year. The market also expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by as much as 100 basis points next year, with an 80% possibility of starting interest rate cuts in April next year.
However, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council warned on Monday that it must be prepared to raise interest rates again if necessary. The chief economist of the Bank of England stated that inflation in the country is still too high and stubborn. The Reserve Bank of Australia may also resume interest rate hikes this Tuesday due to persistent high inflation.
<h2>US stocks rebounded in the late session, Nasdaq rose for the first time in January, OpenAI Developer Conference boosted large tech stocks</h2>
On Monday, November 6th, following the best weekly gains of the three major US stock indexes last week, the main indexes opened high collectively. However, they all fell during the midday session, with the Russell small-cap stocks performing the worst, down 1.6%. Despite the rebound in Treasury yields, the S&amp;P technology sector remained strong.
US stocks rebounded in the late session, but small-cap stocks remained down more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the sixth consecutive day, stabilizing above 34,000 points, reaching the highest level in over six weeks since September 21st. The S&amp;P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive day, reaching the highest level in three weeks since October 17th, and the Dow and S&amp;P both achieved the longest consecutive gains since June and July, respectively. The Nasdaq rose for the seventh consecutive day, the longest period since January and the highest level since October 17th. The Russell small-cap stocks ended their five-day winning streak and fell from a two-and-a-half-week high:
<blockquote>
The S&amp;P 500 index rose 7.64 points, or 0.18%, to 4,365.98 points, with the real estate sector leading the decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.54 points, or 0.10%, to 34,095.86 points. The Nasdaq rose 40.50 points, or 0.30%, to 13,518.78 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index fell 1.3%. The &#34;fear index&#34; VIX fell slightly and remained below the 15 level.
The Nasdaq has risen for seven consecutive days since January, while the Dow and S&amp;P have risen for six consecutive days. The Russell small-cap stocks are testing the 50-day moving average.
</blockquote>
Tech stocks have expanded their gains in the afternoon session. Meta, the &#34;metaverse&#34; company, rose 0.4%, Apple rose 1.5%, both reaching three-week highs. Amazon rose 0.8%, reaching a seven-week high after seven consecutive days of gains. Netflix rose 0.5% to an eight-week high, while Microsoft rose 1% to its highest level in nearly four months. Google A rose nearly 1%, recovering nearly half of its decline since October 24. Tesla initially rose nearly 3% but then fell 2%, ending the day with a 0.3% decline.
Chip stocks had mixed performance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 1% before closing with a 0.3% decline, still close to a two-and-a-half-week high after a four-day rally. Intel dipped slightly but remained near a seven-week high, while AMD narrowed its decline to 0.5% and moved away from a three-month high. Nvidia rose 1.7% to a three-week high.
AI concept stocks experienced a pullback. C3.ai fell nearly 6% from its two-month high, Palantir Technologies fell nearly 2% from its three-month high, and SoundHound.ai fell more than 3% from its two-and-a-half-week high. However, BigBear.ai rose more than 3% and reached a one-month high after a three-day rally.
In terms of news, Tesla plans to produce a mass-market electric vehicle priced at 25,000 euros in Europe, but no timetable has been provided. Its German factory's production capacity is expected to double to 1 million vehicles per year. OpenAI held its first developer conference and released its most powerful AI, GPT-4 Turbo, allowing users to build custom versions of ChatGPT. Bank of America is optimistic about Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, which is expected to exceed expectations and raise performance guidance.
Chinese concept stocks initially outperformed the broader US market, but their gains narrowed later. The KWEB ETF rose 2% before closing with a 0.4% gain, while CQQQ rose nearly 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) initially rose nearly 2% but ended with a slight decline, still hovering at a three-week high after a two-day rally.
Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com rose 0.6%, Baidu fell more than 1%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.7%. In other stocks, Alibaba erased most of its 1.7% gain, Tencent ADR rose more than 1%, Bilibili fell 1%, NIO fell more than 3%, XPeng rose 1.7%, and Li Auto rose more than 8%. Meituan, which rose more than 15% before the market opened, closed with a 2.7% gain, while DouYu fell 10% following the news of CEO Chen Shaojie's disappearance last month.
Bank stocks ended their five-day rally. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, fell 0.9% from a six-week high, having hit a three-year low since September 2020 two weeks ago. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) fell 1.2% from a seven-week high, having hit its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11.
But Citigroup, the third-largest bank in the United States by asset value, saw its decline cut in half after a 1% drop, breaking away from a six-week high. The media reported that the bank is considering layoffs of at least 10% in several major business divisions, with a higher proportion of executive layoffs.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1070f836-58ca-4bca-8f27-e83e8616697b.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1070f836-58ca-4bca-8f27-e83e8616697b.jpeg"/> Banking stocks halted their five-day rally, with regional banking stocks falling more than 1%.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
<blockquote>
Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares, owned by Warren Buffett, fell 1.4%, ending a five-day rally and breaking away from a five-week high. Despite a 40% increase in operating profit to $10.76 billion in the third quarter and a record high cash reserve of $157.2 billion, the stock declined.
Dish Network, the fourth-largest online live TV provider in the United States, fell more than 37%, marking its worst performance since going public. The stock price fell below $4, reaching its lowest level in 25 years since the end of 1998. The company reported an unexpected loss per share in the third quarter, and revenue fell short of expectations.
Disney announced before its earnings report on Wednesday that Hugh Johnston, who has worked at PepsiCo for 34 years and was promoted to CFO in recent years, will jump ship to Disney as CFO and Senior Executive Vice President. Disney fell more than 1%, temporarily moving away from a two-week high, while PepsiCo almost erased its 1% decline.
Media and entertainment giant Paramount Global fell nearly 8%, breaking away from a seven-week high. Bank of America downgraded its rating from &#34;buy&#34; to &#34;sell&#34; directly, stating that there are no significant opportunities to sell part of the business in the near future. Last week, the stock soared 27% on the positive third-quarter report.
Albemarle, a major supplier of lithium batteries for electric vehicles, fell nearly 7% to a three-year low. UBS downgraded its rating from &#34;buy&#34; to &#34;neutral&#34; and cut the target price by more than 40%, citing risks to future lithium sales growth.
</blockquote>
European stocks fell, with only the UK stock index closing flat. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.16%, ending a five-day rally but still hovering near a two-week high. The oil and gas sector rose nearly 1%, leading the gains. The UK mid-cap stock index fell more than 1.3%, while the MSCI ACWI global index rose for the sixth consecutive trading day.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb7cb89-6abc-473b-857e-28fce622d5ea.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb7cb89-6abc-473b-857e-28fce622d5ea.jpeg"/>
<h2>US bond yields hit intraday highs, with 2-year and 10-year yields rising by 11 basis points, European bond yields follow suit</h2>
After a sharp decline last Friday, US bond yields rose collectively on Monday. The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose 11 basis points to 4.94%, breaking away from a two-month low. It had fallen 9 basis points last Friday and a cumulative 18 basis points last week.
The yield on 10-year government bonds also rose by more than 11 basis points to 4.67%, moving away from a five-and-a-half-week low. Last Friday, it fell by 13 basis points to 4.48%, with a cumulative decline of about 29 basis points last week, marking the largest weekly decline in at least eight months since March.
The yield on US two-year and 10-year bonds also rose by 11 basis points.
European bond yields followed the performance of US bonds and rose in unison, with the 10-year Italian bond yield leading the way, rising by more than 13 basis points.
The yield on 10-year German bonds, the benchmark for the eurozone, rose by about 10 basis points, reaching a daily high of 2.74% at the close, ending a seven-day consecutive decline. After the release of US non-farm payroll data last Friday, it reached a seven-week low of 2.63% since September 15, as well as the largest weekly decline in five months.
The yield on two-year German bonds rose by nearly 7 basis points. The yields on 10-year French and Spanish government bonds both rose by more than 10 basis points. In addition, the yield on two-year UK bonds rose by more than 4 basis points, moving away from the nearly five-month low set last Friday, and the yield on 10-year UK bonds rose by more than 9 basis points, reaching a daily high of 4.38% at the close, after hitting a five-and-a-half-week low last Friday. The market is waiting for UK GDP data for the third quarter.
<h2>Oil prices rose by about 2% during the day and then narrowed, with US oil hovering at a two-month low and Brent oil approaching a one-month low, while European and American natural gas prices fell together</h2>
Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated their commitment to cut oil supplies until the end of the year, causing oil prices to rise, but the gains narrowed in the afternoon. WTI December futures closed up $0.31, or 0.38%, at $80.82 per barrel. Brent January futures closed up $0.29, or 0.34%, at $85.18 per barrel.
US WTI crude oil rose by a maximum of $1.72, or 2.1%, reaching a daily high of over $82, but still hovering at a two-month low since the end of August. Brent crude oil rose by a maximum of $1.57, or 1.8%, reaching a daily high of over $86, but still hovering at a one-month low since October 6.
Some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia's commitment to cut production by 1 million barrels per day and Russia's continued reduction of 300,000 barrels per day in oil and its products exports, combined with the imminent increase in US sanctions on Iranian oil, are all conducive to pushing up oil prices. However, the background of Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts is concerns about weak economic growth and demand, which may extend the production cuts until the first quarter of next year, still triggering concerns about oil prices. Oil prices fell by 6% last week.
At the close, the TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, fell by more than 6%, further away from the integer level of 50 euros per megawatt-hour, reaching a four-week low since October 9.
ICE UK natural gas also fell more than 6.5%, affected by abundant supply and warm weather. US natural gas futures fell more than 7% to a one-week low, also due to the unfavorable heating demand on the US East Coast caused by the warm weather.
The end of the bet on the Fed's interest rate hike has stabilized the US dollar, pulling away from its seven-week low and pushing the offshore renminbi up 200 points to 7.27 at one point.
The DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose slightly and remained above 105, touching its lowest level in nearly seven weeks since September 20. It rose above 107 for the first time on October 4 but fell 1.4% for the whole week, the largest decline since July.
The euro against the US dollar fell during the US stock market session but remained above 1.07, pulling away from its highest level in nearly eight weeks since September 13. The pound also fell slightly and lost the 1.24 level, which it reached earlier, a seven-week high. The yen against the US dollar fell back towards the 150 level, pulling away from its monthly high. Some analysts believe that the 155 level may trigger the Japanese government's intervention in the currency market. The offshore renminbi briefly approached 7.27, rising 200 points from the previous day's closing.
Some analysts believe that the increased confidence in the Fed's completion of interest rate hikes has led to a rapid decline in US bond yields in recent weeks, which has also caused the US dollar index to fall from its high.
Most mainstream cryptocurrencies have risen. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has risen above the $35,000 mark, hovering at its highest level in 18 months since May last year. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has also risen slightly and approached the $1,900 mark, reaching its highest level in nearly four months.
Spot gold fell to a daily low and lost the $1,980 mark in the late trading session, while London metals rose across the board, with zinc rising nearly 2% and aluminum, nickel, and tin all rising more than 1%.
The stability of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields have put pressure on gold prices. COMEX December gold futures fell $10.60, or 0.53%, to $1,988.60 per ounce, while December silver futures fell 0.22% to $23.234 per ounce.
Spot gold extended its decline to 0.7% after the US stock market noon session, hitting a new daily low and losing the $1,980 mark, with a $14 drop during the day, wiping out the gains of more than a week since October 26.
Some analysts believe that for gold to continue to stay above $2,000, the Fed may need to send a clearer signal that a rate cut is coming and investors need to return to ETF purchases. In October, driven by safe-haven demand amid conflicts in the Middle East, gold prices rose more than 7% and net long positions in futures increased.
Spot gold fell below $1980 at the end of the day, hitting a new daily low.
London industrial metals rose across the board. The &#34;Copper Doctor&#34; rose 0.8%, London aluminum rose 1.5%, London zinc rose 1.9%, all reaching five-week highs since early October. London lead rose 0.4% to a five-week high, London nickel rose 1.2%, London tin rose 1.3%, all reaching monthly highs.
Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1.3% in the night session, international copper and Shanghai copper rose 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai tin rose 0.9%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.3%. Copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 11% last Friday but remained at a one-year low, while LME inventories, which had been rising for several months, fell, both signaling positive demand.

The market is waiting for speeches from at least 9 Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, this week. Traders are betting that the probability of no rate hike in December is as high as 90%. US stocks rebounded in the late session, with the Nasdaq rising for the seventh consecutive day since January, and the Dow and S&P 500 rising for the sixth consecutive day. The Russell small-cap stocks fell more than 1%. OpenAI boosted large-cap tech stocks, with Microsoft rising for the seventh consecutive day to a four-month high, while AI concept stocks such as C3.ai experienced a pullback. The China concept index initially rose nearly 2% outperforming the broader market, but ultimately fell slightly, lingering at a three-week high. "Double 11" concept stocks such as PDD, JD-SWR, and Alibaba all rose, while NIO rose more than 8% and DouYu fell 10%. The US dollar and US bond yields hit daily highs in the late session, with both the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising by 11 basis points. The US dollar rebounded from its lowest level in nearly seven weeks, and the offshore renminbi briefly rose 200 points to 7.27 yuan. Oil prices rose, but US oil remained at a two-month low, while Brent crude approached a one-month low. Warm weather caused a more than 6% drop in natural gas prices in Europe and the US. Spot gold hit a daily low below $1980 in the late session, while London metals rose across the board.

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"Non-farm payrolls day" Nasdaq hits its longest consecutive rise in over nine months, the US dollar rebounds from a seven-week low, and oil prices rise 2% during trading.