The survey conducted by the New York Fed showed that Americans' one-year inflation expectations in October decreased slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%, while three-year expectations remained stable at 3% and five-year expectations decreased slightly from 2.8% to 2.7%. The US budget deficit in October was $66.6 billion, a 24% decrease compared to the same period last year.
Moody's, one of the world's three major rating agencies, downgraded the outlook for the US credit rating from stable to negative after the market closed last Friday. The reason is concerns about the &#34;very large&#34; fiscal deficit and political deadlock, but the AAA top rating is maintained.
The market is waiting for the US government's decision on funding in Congress on Saturday, as well as the release of data this week that will impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, such as October CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production. It is expected that changes in healthcare costs will slightly increase the CPI.
Last Friday, ECB President Lagarde, as well as Vice President de Guindos on Monday, both predicted that inflation in the eurozone may temporarily rebound in the coming months and will need to be maintained at high levels for at least several quarters.
Last week, Fed Chairman Powell also expressed doubts about whether the current monetary policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target. Futures traders are betting that the probability of no rate hike in December is as high as 86%.
<h2>Dow Jones rises for two consecutive days to the highest level in nearly eight weeks, S&amp;P and Nasdaq turn down, Nvidia rises for nine consecutive days, Tesla achieves its largest increase since the beginning of the month</h2>
On Monday, November 13th, investors digested Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating outlook and concerns about a possible government shutdown, causing US stocks to open slightly lower. However, during the midday session, they collectively turned higher, with only the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks maintaining their gains.
At the close, the Dow Jones rose for two consecutive days to the highest level since September 20th, the S&amp;P 500 index fell slightly but remained near the high since September 19th, and the Nasdaq temporarily moved away from the high of nearly two months since September 14th. The Russell small-cap stocks rose for two consecutive days and stabilized above 1700 points:
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The S&amp;P 500 index fell 3.69 points, or 0.08%, to 4411.55. The Dow Jones rose 54.77 points, or 0.16%, to 34337.87. The Nasdaq fell 30.36 points, or 0.22%, to 13767.74. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 0.01%. The &#34;fear index&#34; VIX rose more than 4% to 14.76, with the utilities sector performing the worst.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fc2b6d90-4e1c-41ea-97a7-a6b7f8cb5351.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Image" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fc2b6d90-4e1c-41ea-97a7-a6b7f8cb5351.jpeg"/> US stocks collectively turned higher after midday, with the Nasdaq breaking the &#34;Monday must rise&#34; trend of nearly 20 weeks
UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts will far exceed market expectations, with a possible 275 basis points cut starting from March next year. This is four times the market's expectation of a 75 basis points cut starting in July, as the US may enter a recession in the second quarter of next year. Goldman Sachs stated that inflation and interest rates in the United States seem to have peaked, but factors such as low equity risk premium and moderate profit growth in 2024 will limit the upside of the stock market.
Most star tech stocks fell. Apple fell nearly 1% and lost its nine-week high. Amazon fell 0.7%, Netflix fell 0.6%, still hovering at a two-month high. Microsoft fell 0.8% and temporarily moved away from its all-time high. Google A fell 0.4% and fell from a two-week high. However, &#34;metaverse&#34; Meta rose 0.1% and rose for seven consecutive days to a 22-month high. Tesla rose 5% and closed up more than 4%, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2.
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Chip stocks fell together. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by about 1%, breaking its nine-week high since September 6. Intel fell 1.6% and fell from a two-month high. AMD fell 1.5% and fell from a nearly five-month high. However, Nvidia rose the highest by 1.5%, rising for nine consecutive days to a two-and-a-half-month high, tying the longest record in March, which was the longest consecutive rise since 2016. This time, it rose for nine consecutive days and rose more than 19% in total.
AI concept stocks rebounded for two days. C3.ai rose more than 3%, Palantir Technologies stopped falling and rose 0.2% to a three-and-a-half-month high. SoundHound.ai rose more than 11% to a one-month high. BigBear.ai rose more than 14% to a three-month high.
On the news front, it is reported that India is considering reducing import tariffs on electric vehicles to attract Tesla to build factories. It is said that the electric pickup truck Cybertruck has changed its order terms without the company's permission, and buyers will not be allowed to sell the model within the first year of purchase.
Nvidia has launched the latest high-end GPU chip H200 for training and deploying AI models, consolidating its dominant position in the AI computing market and benchmarking AMD's MI300X GPU. OpenAI is reportedly seeking new funding support from Microsoft to fully develop general artificial intelligence AGI. Wedbush Securities pointed out that the &#34;tidal wave&#34; of AI spending will bring a bull market in the technology sector.
Popular Chinese concept stocks have been leading since the beginning of the trading day. ETF KWEB rose 1.2%, CQQQ rose 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.8% and closed up 0.8%, breaking through 6300 points, rebounding for two consecutive days from a new low of more than a week.
Among the Nasdaq 100 component stocks, JD.com rose 1% and then fell slightly, Baidu rose more than 1%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.2%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba rose 0.7% and then fell 0.6%, Tencent ADR rose more than 2%, and Bilibili rose more than 1%. NIO rose 2.6% and then fell 0.3%, Xiaopeng Motors rose 4% and closed up 2.6%, Ideal Motors rose 6.8%, and Mist Computing rose 22% and closed up more than 14%.
On the news front, Xiaopeng Motors and Didi completed the first delivery of the latter's intelligent car development business assets after the acquisition, and will deepen cooperation in multiple fields. Mist Computing's adjusted net profit in the third quarter was RMB 200 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40% but an increase of 129% QoQ.
Banking stocks have been on a downward trend for several days, but they are still hovering around the low levels of the month. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, fell 1% before closing down 0.2%, hitting a three-year low since September 2020 at the end of October. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) fell more than 1% before rebounding 0.3%, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
<blockquote>
Boeing rose more than 5% before closing up 4%, boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has risen for four consecutive days to a two-month high. Reports suggest that Emirates Airlines will purchase 95 Boeing wide-body aircraft worth $52 billion, with the possibility of other Asian companies following suit.
Its competitor Airbus saw its European and American stocks rise by about 1% to a two-month high. Turkish Airlines is negotiating the purchase of more than 350 Airbus aircraft, and Saudi Arabia is also negotiating the purchase of up to 150 Airbus A320 aircraft.
Oil and gas giant ExxonMobil rose 1% after rebounding from a four-month low for three consecutive days. It has launched a lithium project in the United States and is expected to start producing battery-grade lithium as early as 2027, with the goal of meeting the manufacturing needs of over 1 million electric vehicles annually by 2030.
The pharmaceutical sector opened low and then rebounded in a V-shape. Novo Nordisk nearly erased its initial 3% decline. The weight-loss drug Wegovy can effectively reduce the risk of serious cardiovascular complications in obese and heart disease patients, which may expand insurance coverage and maintain a competitive advantage over Eli Lilly.
Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals fell more than 4% before rebounding 2.5%, approaching the all-time high set last Wednesday. Research results show that a single dose of the new experimental drug Lepodisiran can significantly reduce the risk of heart disease.
Investors are paying attention to the third-quarter reports of major US retailers such as Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and Macy's from Tuesday to Thursday, which may provide clues about consumer spending and the health of the economy. Beyond Meat hit a new all-time low after being downgraded by brokerage firms.
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European stocks rose across the board, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.75%, reaching an eight-week high. The travel and leisure sector led the gains, rising 1.7%, while the media sector fell against the trend, down 0.2%. The Italian stock index rose nearly 1.5%, leading major national indices, and the country's banking index rose 2.8%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6e23e8b0-3e93-4a23-8991-562bd551a398.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6e23e8b0-3e93-4a23-8991-562bd551a398.jpeg"/>
<h2>Both European and US bond yields erase intraday gains, and US long-term bond yields show relative strength after Moody's downgrade</h2>
US short-term bond yields fell during the day, and long-term bond yields only gave up their gains at the end of the day, reflecting a higher &#34;duration premium&#34;. Some analysts believe that although the &#34;default risk of US government bonds is zero&#34;, a downgrade in credit rating outlook will still affect the attractiveness of its debt to foreign investors.
The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, briefly rose 2 basis points to 5.08% before falling back from its daily high to 5.03%, a decrease of over 4 basis points from the monthly high. The 10-year benchmark bond yield also rose 7 basis points to approach 4.70%, reaching a one-and-a-half-week high.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain at 4.5% or higher until the end of 2027, citing sticky inflation and strong employment. The benchmark sovereign bond yields of most G10 countries, except for Japan, are expected to be close to or slightly lower than current levels by the end of next year.
The European and American bond yields have erased their intraday gains.
European bond yields fell in the late session. The 10-year benchmark yield in the eurozone fell by less than 1 basis point, after previously rising by 3 basis points to 2.75%. The two-year yield increased by half to 1.6 basis points, while the 30-year long bond yield fell by over 2 basis points. The benchmark bond yields of countries such as France and Italy all declined by more than 1 basis point. British bond yields also generally declined, with the 50-year long bond yield falling by over 5 basis points.
<h2>OPEC optimistic about demand prospects for the next two years, oil prices rise over 1% to a one-week high, US natural gas rises over 6% during the session</h2>
The latest OPEC monthly report attempts to dispel demand concerns and blames speculators for selling off and dragging down oil prices. WTI December crude oil futures rose by $1.09, or 1.41%, to $78.26 per barrel. Brent January futures rose by $1.09, or 1.34%, to $82.52 per barrel.
WTI crude oil reached a high of $1.36 or 1.8%, breaking through $78, while Brent crude oil reached a high of $1.37 or 1.7%, breaking through $82. Both rebounded from their lowest levels in three and a half months. Oil prices fell by about 4% last week, marking the first three-week decline since May.
OPEC slightly raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 2.46 million barrels per day and maintained its forecast of a high demand growth rate of 2.25 million barrels per day for next year. It stated that &#34;excessive negative sentiment&#34; is overshadowing the global oil market, but the fundamental outlook is positive.
The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose by over 2% in the late session, while ICE UK futures also saw a slight increase. US natural gas futures jumped by over 6% as investors worried that the Texas LNG liquefied natural gas plant would shut down again.
USD approaches 106 before turning down, JPY falls below 152 to hit a one-year low before rebounding, offshore RMB rises above 7.29 yuan
Ahead of the release of heavyweight inflation data, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures against six major currencies, fell during the US stock market session, erasing most of its gains since last Thursday, but briefly approached the 106 level earlier on Monday.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2f91d418-66b5-43ce-b76e-6ba9ef9d6de0.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2f91d418-66b5-43ce-b76e-6ba9ef9d6de0.jpeg"/> USD approaches 106 before turning down
The euro rose 0.2% against the US dollar and broke through 1.07, essentially recovering from last Thursday's decline. Ahead of the release of UK inflation data, the pound rose 0.5% and held above 1.22. The offshore RMB briefly rose above 7.29 yuan, a gain of more than 140 points from the previous day's close.
There is speculation that Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market. The JPY rose more than 60 points against the USD before the US stock market session, reaching 151.40 and briefly rebounding during the day. Earlier, it had fallen below the 152 level to a one-year low.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies show mixed performance. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell nearly 1% to approach $36,800, having surpassed the $37,000 level for the first time since May last year on Friday. However, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose more than 2% and approached $2,100, nearing a seven-month high.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d0daebda-d2ee-4d79-ab02-077e40c9e793.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d0daebda-d2ee-4d79-ab02-077e40c9e793.jpeg"/> Ethereum rises more than 2% and approaches $2,100, close to a seven-month high
Spot gold turns up and approaches $1,950, silver falls more than 1% and falls below $22, LME copper rises 1.6% and breaks away from a two-week low
COMEX December gold futures closed up $12 or 0.7% at $1,950.2 per ounce. Silver futures rose 0.3% to $22.36 per ounce, falling 1.6% intraday and briefly falling below the $22 whole number level.
Spot gold briefly approached the $1,930 whole number level during the early US stock market session, then turned up after noon, rising as much as 0.6% or $11 and approaching the $1,950 level, breaking away from the lowest level in over three weeks. Spot silver also briefly fell below $22 to a one-month low.
Some analysts believe that if the US October CPI inflation on Tuesday is higher than expected, it will increase the possibility of another interest rate hike, and gold prices may pull back. However, if the data meets expectations, it could push gold prices above $1,950. Last week, a relief in safe-haven demand caused gold prices to fall nearly 3% over the week.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cc967908-fc53-45f2-a3e8-981e3b0e5826.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cc967908-fc53-45f2-a3e8-981e3b0e5826.jpeg"/> Spot gold turns up and approaches $1,950, testing the 200-day moving average
London industrial base metals mostly closed higher. The economic barometer &#34;Dr. Copper&#34; rose 1.6%, breaking through $8,100 and moving away from a two-week low. Last week, it rose above $8,200 to a one-month high. Analysts said that short covering boosted prices, but growth uncertainties and high interest rates limited gains.
London aluminum rose slightly, moving away from a two-week low, while London zinc and London lead both fell slightly to a one-week low. London nickel rose 0.8%, still hovering near a two-and-a-half-year low since May 2021, and London tin rose 1.3%, returning to a monthly high.
&#34;Commodity flagship&#34; Goldman Sachs recommends going long on commodities in 2024, stating that the return rate in the next 12 months will increase. Loose monetary policies and concerns about economic recession will lead to an increase in spot prices, and this asset class will also strengthen due to the risk of hedging geopolitical supply.
The report stated that the hedging risk characteristics of gold should be seen as a buying opportunity. Starting from the second half of next year, the sharp tightening of copper and aluminum inventories will support prices, and the &#34;sustained elasticity&#34; of demand will drive oil price recovery.

NVDA

The market is digesting Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating outlook to negative, waiting for the October CPI and PPI inflation data and the funding decision on whether the US government will shut down on Saturday. The S&P Nasdaq Composite Index failed to maintain its intraday gains, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the second consecutive day to its highest level in nearly eight weeks. Nvidia matched its longest winning streak since 2016, while Tesla rose more than 4% to achieve its largest increase since the beginning of the month. Eli Lilly approached its all-time high. The China concept index rose 1.8% and closed up 0.8%, with Baidu and Bilibili both rising more than 1%, and Tencent and Xiaopeng Motors both rising more than 2%. After Moody's downgrade of the outlook, US long-term bond yields performed relatively strongly, reflecting a "duration premium". The US dollar initially rose above 106 and then fell, while the Japanese yen initially fell to a one-year low of 152 and then rebounded, and the offshore renminbi rose above 7.29 yuan. Spot gold rose and approached $1950, while London copper rose 1.6% and moved away from its two-week low. OPEC is optimistic about demand in the next two years, and oil prices rose more than 1% to a one-week high.

Wallstreetcn

NVIDIA

S&P and Nasdaq turned down, while Nvidia continued to rise for the ninth day in a row. Chinese concept stocks performed strongly, leading the way. The increase in US bond yields was erased during the trading session.