"Analysis Report" on Meituan Investment Rating and Target Price (Table)

Meituan-W (03690.HK) will announce its third-quarter performance next Tuesday (28th). Although the volume of takeaway orders may be affected by macroeconomic factors and subsidy measures, the seasonal travel during the summer vacation, improvement in rider costs (abundant supply of riders leading to cost optimization), growth in in-store business, and the market forecast of a gross profit margin of 30% to 35% support the company's performance. According to the comprehensive analysis of 8 securities firms, Meituan-WR's adjusted non-IFRS net profit is expected to be between 4.823 billion and 5.695 billion yuan, an increase of 36.7% to 61.5% compared to the second quarter of 2022 (3.527 billion yuan). The median is 4.929 billion yuan, an increase of 40% year-on-year. According to the comprehensive analysis of 3 securities firms, Meituan-WR's net profit for the third quarter of 2023 is expected to be between 2.4 billion and 3.502 billion yuan, an increase of 97.2% to 187.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 (1.217 billion yuan). Investors are paying attention to the latest business guidance from Meituan-WR's management, including the competition in the in-store business (gross profit margin of in-store business), growth in takeaway order volume and unit economic efficiency, and progress in reducing losses in preferred businesses. The table below lists the ratings and target prices of 27 securities firms: Securities Firm | Investment Rating | Target Price Lyon | Buy | 235 yuan GF Securities | Buy | 230.3 yuan DBS | Buy | 224 yuan CICC | Buy | 220 yuan Citi | Buy | 214 yuan CEB International | Outperform | 210.6 yuan Goldman Sachs | Buy | 205 yuan Haitong International | Outperform | 205 yuan Guotai Junan | Buy | 202 yuan First Shanghai | Buy | 201 yuan HSBC Global Research | Buy | 200 yuan BOC International | Buy | 200 yuan Orient Securities | Buy | 198.16 yuan Huatai Securities | Buy | 195.5 yuan J.P. Morgan | Overweight | 195 yuan CITIC Securities | Buy | 193 yuan BOCOM International | Buy | 190 yuan Haitong Securities | Outperform | 187 yuan CITIC CLSA | Buy | 185.97 yuan CICC | Outperform | 184 yuan Nomura | Buy | 184 yuan Guotai Junan | Hold | 181.3 yuan Morgan Stanley | Hold | 180 yuan Daiwa | Buy | 175 yuan CICC | Strong Buy | 173.7 yuan Yuanta Securities | Buy | 160 yuan UBS | Buy | 144 yuan (fc/w)