Disappointing 'mini non-farm'! The number of employed people in the US increased by only 103,000 in November, with wage growth hitting a new low in over two years.

ADP employment data, known as "small non-agricultural", fell short of expectations for four consecutive months, adding new evidence to the cooling of the US labor market. On Wednesday, December 6, the U.S. ADP employment report showed that **U.S. ADP employment increased by 103000 in November, less than the expected 130000, and also less than the previous revised value of 106000. * *! * * While employment is slowing down, salary growth is also further cooling down. In November, the salary of those who stayed on the job rose 5.6 percent from the same period last year, and the growth rate fell for the 14th consecutive month to the weakest growth level since September 2021. * * The salary increase of job hoppers was 8.3 percent, also the smallest increase since 2021, but the growth rate of two real wages was still far higher than the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.! But in the face of high borrowing costs and lingering price pressures, employers are increasingly reducing the scale of recruitment. The number of employees in medium-sized enterprises with a size of 50-249 increased the most, reaching 71000, while the number of employees in small enterprises with 20-49 decreased the most, with a decrease of 16000.! By industry, employment in service-related industries increased, while manufacturing declined by 14000. Among them, education and health services, trade and transportation, and financial activities promoted employment growth, increasing 44000, 55000, and 11000 respectively; manufacturing and construction employment continued to decline, decreasing by 15000 and 4000 respectively. **The leisure and hospitality industry, which had led the post-epidemic employment recovery, lost 7000 employees last month for the first time in nearly three years. * *! Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said:> Restaurants and hotels are the biggest job creators in the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost has passed, and the return of leisure and hospitality trends suggests that the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024. In another sign of cooling in the labor market last night, the U.S. Labor Department reported that job openings fell to 8.73 million in October, the lowest since March 2021. Two days after the ADP report, the Labor Department will release the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls data, and the two reports are likely to differ significantly. The market generally expects that the number of new non-agricultural employment will rebound to 18.9 from the 150000 in October, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 3.9, and the average hourly wage will slow from 4.1 per cent to 4 per cent year-on-year, but accelerate from 0.2 per cent to 0.3 per cent month-on-month. [Goldman Sachs previously noted](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3702907?keyword=%E9% AB %98%E7%9B%9B) that the timing of the Fed's first rate cut is key to global assets, and the key to the rate cut is employment data. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the "Sam rule" will be triggered, so even if inflation has not yet reached the target, the Fed may cut interest rates. The current market is expected to cut interest rates, and the weakness of the labor market will undoubtedly contribute to this expectation. After the data was released, the three major stock index futures of US stocks rose in the short term, while the US dollar index fell in the short term to 104.