Waiting for CPI and the heavyweight meeting of the Federal Reserve, US stocks continue to rise thrillingly, US bonds rebound after heavy selling, and gold falls below $2000.

The market is waiting for the last monetary policy meetings of the year by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, and investors are cautious at the start of the week. The three major US stock indexes, which have been rising for six consecutive weeks, experienced intraday declines, but the Nasdaq managed to hold on to its gains. US Treasury yields continued to rise during the session, although the momentum eased compared to last Friday when unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data was released. The yield on the two-year US Treasury, which is sensitive to interest rates, continued to hit new highs since the end of November, while the results of the ten-year Treasury auction were overall mediocre but stronger than the earlier three-year Treasury auction on Monday. After the auction results were announced, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield hit a daily high and then retreated, while the two-year yield gave back its intraday gains and turned lower. The US dollar index hovered at a three-week high, partly due to the decline in the yen. According to reports, the Bank of Japan is not expected to end negative interest rates at its meeting this month, causing the yen to accelerate its decline during the session, erasing more than 1% of its gains and almost wiping out all the gains it made after the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance last Thursday, which sent it to a four-month high. The Federal Reserve began its meeting on Tuesday, and on the same day, it will release important inflation data for November, the US CPI. The next day, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision at the end of the meeting, along with updated economic projections and the dot plot, which reflects the rate expectations of Fed officials. Important economic data and heavyweight meetings of central banks such as the Federal Reserve will test the market's optimistic sentiment about interest rate cuts next year. Currently, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this week, although some institutions predict that the Fed will downplay the possibility of rate cuts next year in its comments. Some commentators have pointed out that the current issue is whether the Fed will try to ease market expectations of monetary easing after market prices have reflected investors' aggressive bets on a dovish turn and rate cuts next year. The recent rise in US stocks is mainly based on market expectations of a soft landing and rate cuts next year. While a soft landing is possible, it is not a certainty. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next year, but it may do so because the economy is slowing down and may contract rather than expand, which may be different from the current market expectations. Nick Timiraos, a well-known journalist known as the "New Fed News Agency," recently gave a "preventive needle" to the market, which has high expectations for rate cuts. In an article he wrote last weekend, he stated that Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to seriously discuss when to cut interest rates this week, unless the economic weakness exceeds expectations, they will not seriously discuss it in the coming months. He believes that the Federal Reserve is only likely to start cutting interest rates in two scenarios: either the economy continues to slow down and the unemployment rate rises more than expected, or the economy performs well but inflation cools more than expected. Commodity performance varied. Gold continued its decline after the release of the US non-farm payroll report, with both gold futures and spot prices falling below $2,000 during the session. Gold futures erased all gains since Thanksgiving and closed below this key level for the first time during this period. International crude oil erased more than a 1% decline during the session and turned higher, maintaining the rebound momentum from last Friday and continuing to move away from the five-month low set during the six consecutive days of decline. Comments suggest that after seven consecutive weeks of decline, crude oil futures are approaching oversold conditions. Investor sentiment has improved overall, and risk appetite funds have flowed into the oil market from other assets, supporting the rebound in oil prices. US natural gas plummeted nearly 6%, reaching a six-month low. Weather forecasts show that temperatures in most parts of the United States will be much higher than normal levels for this time of year, which has dampened the outlook for natural gas demand. The three major US stock indexes have had mixed performances at the opening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened slightly lower, turned higher in the early trading session but fell again after about half an hour. The S&P 500, which opened down more than 0.2%, also turned higher in the early trading session but experienced several short-term declines. It continued to rise during the afternoon session. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which opened lower, hit a daily low in the early trading session but rebounded during the afternoon session. The three indexes reached new daily highs at the end of the trading day, marking three consecutive days of collective gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 157.06 points, or 0.43%, at 36,404.93 points. After reaching a new high since January 12th of last year on Friday, it once again reached a high since January 5th of last year. The S&P 500 closed up 0.39% at 4,622.44 points. After closing above 4,600 points for the first time since March 30th of last year on Friday, it reached a new closing high since March 29th of last year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.2% at 14,432.49 points, surpassing the high set on Friday since April 4th of last year. The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, turned higher during the afternoon session and closed up 0.15%, reaching a high since September 1st. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, turned higher in the early trading session and closed up 0.85%, marking two consecutive days of reaching a two-year high. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed up 0.7%, reaching a record high since November 20th, all of which have seen three consecutive days of gains. In the S&P 500's major sectors, only the communication services sector, which includes Meta and Google, closed lower on Monday. Consumer staples led the gains, rising nearly 1%, followed by industrials, which rose 0.9%. Materials and financials rose by around 0.7%, while energy and non-essential consumer goods, including Tesla, had the smallest gains, rising more than 0.1%. Most leading technology stocks declined, with Tesla, which had risen for four consecutive days until November 29th, falling by nearly 1.7% on Friday. Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, fell 2.2% after rising for two consecutive days until November 28th. Apple, which had risen for two consecutive days until July 31st, fell 1.3%. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, fell 1.3% after two days of decline following a rebound on November 28th. Last Friday, Amazon fell 1% after two consecutive days of gains, reaching a high since November 27th. Microsoft, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell nearly 0.8%, approaching the low since November 13th, which was set on Wednesday last week. Netflix, on the other hand, rose nearly 1.4% and has been on a three-day winning streak since December 1st, reaching a high. Overall, chip stocks have risen for three consecutive days, outperforming the market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX both rose more than 3% at noon, closing up 3.4% and reaching a high since December 2021. Among individual stocks, Broadcom rose 9% after being reinstated with a buy rating by Citigroup, citing optimism about the AI boom. This marked its largest gain in six months. At the close, Applied Materials rose 5%, while Intel, AMD, ASML, and KLA all rose more than 4%. Micron Technology rose more than 3%, Qualcomm rose more than 2%, and Texas Instruments rose more than 1%. However, Arm fell more than 3%, and Nvidia, which plans to establish a semiconductor base in Vietnam, fell nearly 1.9%, according to media reports. Including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, the seven major tech stocks fell against the market on Monday, experiencing the largest decline since October 26th. AI concept stocks had mixed performances. At the close, C3.ai (AI) fell 0.4%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell nearly 3%, while BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose nearly 3%. Adobe (ADBE) rose more than 2%, and Palantir (PLTR) had a slight increase. Popular Chinese concept stocks followed the market's rise. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) initially fell more than 1% but turned positive at noon, closing up nearly 0.3% after a two-day decline since November 1st. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose nearly 0.6% and 1.9% respectively. The three new forces in the electric vehicle industry all rose, with XPeng Motors up 4.9%, NIO up more than 4% at the opening, and Li Auto up more than 1% after announcing that it had achieved its annual delivery target ahead of schedule in November. Among other individual stocks, Pinduoduo rose nearly 3%, Bilibili and iQiyi rose more than 2%, Tencent Music rose more than 1%, NetEase rose nearly 0.5%, and Baidu rose less than 0.1%. However, JD.com, which was removed from the Nasdaq 100 Index, fell more than 3%, and Alibaba fell more than 1%. In terms of volatile stocks, Macy's jumped nearly 15% after receiving a $5.8 billion acquisition offer from a group of investors, representing a premium of nearly 21% over Friday's closing price. The company closed up 19.4%. Cigna Group, a healthcare company that failed to reach an agreement on the acquisition price and abandoned the acquisition of its peer Humana, rose 16.7%, while Humana fell 1%. After announcing that the CEO will step down in January next year and begin the search for a new CEO, Shake Shack (SHAK), a restaurant chain, rose 9.6% in trading. Oracle (ORCL), which saw its second-quarter revenue fall below expectations, dropped more than 9% in after-hours trading. It was reported that Oracle plans to lay off approximately 1,100 employees, accounting for about 20% of its workforce. Hasbro (HAS), which initially fell 7% in after-hours trading, ended the day with a 0.4% gain. Banking stocks showed mixed performance. The KBW Bank Index (BKX), a comprehensive banking industry indicator, rose less than 0.1% and reached a new closing high since August 7th for the third consecutive day. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), which has been rising for three consecutive days and reached a new high since August 7th, fell nearly 0.2%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which has also been rising for three consecutive days and reached a new high since August 7th, dropped 0.2%. In Europe, the pan-European stock index has risen for two consecutive trading days. After reaching a new high since February 9th last Friday, the STOXX Europe 600 Index once again reached a new closing high since February 2nd last year. Most major European stock indexes rose on Monday, with the German stock index hitting a new all-time high for two consecutive trading days, and the French and Italian stock indexes rising for two consecutive days. However, the rebounding British and Spanish stock indexes fell. In terms of sectors, the basic resources sector, which led the market with a cumulative decline of more than 3% last week, continued to decline against the market, falling 1% due to the impact of falling metal prices. Among individual stocks, Solvay, a chemical company that divested Syensqo, plummeted 29.1%, leading the decline among STOXX 600 constituents. On the other hand, Syensqo rose 18.8% on its first day of listing, with a market value exceeding 10 billion euros. After reaching a one-week high, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds retraced its gains, while the yield on 2-year bonds reached a two-week high before declining. Most European government bond prices continued to fall, pushing yields higher. At the end of the bond market session, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 4.07%, up 4 basis points for the day. The yield on the 10-year German government bond closed at 2.27%, down 1 basis point for the day, still far from the low of 2.17% set on April 6th. The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.70%, up 1 basis point for the day, moving further away from the low since May. Some analysts believe that the current market pricing already reflects the market's expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) as early as March. Futures contracts suggest that interest rates will be cut by nearly 150 basis points throughout next year. However, this market expectation may be too premature, and the ECB is unlikely to act as quickly as the market currently expects, which poses a risk of disappointment for the market. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury benchmark fell below 4.23% in the Asian market, hitting a daily low before rebounding. After the announcement of the results of the sale of 10-year US Treasury bonds, the yield initially increased, reaching nearly 4.29%, the highest level since last Monday, December 4th. It rose by about 6 basis points during the day but later gave back most of the gains. The yield briefly fell below 4.23% in the late trading session, but by the end of the bond market, it was around 4.23%, with a slight increase during the day. After two consecutive days of gains, the upward momentum paused, but it still remained far from the high point of nearly 4.10% reached in early September. The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.73% in the early Asian session. It briefly rose above 4.77% in pre-market trading, reaching the highest level since November 28th. After the announcement of the sale of 10-year US Treasury bonds, the yield continued to give back its gains and fell to around 4.71% by the end of the bond market, a decrease of about 1 basis point during the day, following a rebound last Friday. The US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro, briefly fell below 104.00 in the early Asian session before rebounding. It maintained a rising trend after the rebound, with only a brief decline before the European stock market opened and in the early session. It briefly approached 104.20 when the yen fell sharply. The US stock market extended its gains in the early and mid-session, with the index rising above 104.20. It approached the high point since November 17th, created last Friday, and rose more than 0.2% during the day, but later gave back most of the gains. By the close of the US stock market on Monday, the US dollar index was below 104.10, with an increase of less than 0.1% during the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose by nearly 0.2%. Both the US dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have risen for two consecutive days after a three-day rally last Thursday. This is the fifth day of gains in the past six trading days. Among non-US currencies, the Japanese yen accelerated its decline after reports that the Bank of Japan will not rush to end negative interest rates this month. It gave back most of its gains since last Thursday. The USD/JPY rose above 146.00 before the European stock market opened and reached a high of 146.50 in pre-market trading. It rose by nearly 1.1% during the day, reaching a level not seen since the day when the central bank officials hinted at the end of negative interest rates last Thursday, far from the low point of 141.70 reached on August 7th. By the close of the US stock market, it was above 146.10, with an increase of over 0.8% during the day. The EUR/USD briefly approached 1.0740 during the US stock market session, close to the low point of 1.0730 reached on November 14th. The US stock market fell nearly 0.2% intraday, but rebounded during the midday session and closed above 1.0760, with a slight increase for the day. The British pound against the US dollar fell below 1.2540 in the early Asian session, hitting a new daily low. European stocks briefly rose above 1.2590, hitting a new daily high, but gradually gave up gains after the US stock market opened, and briefly fell during the midday session. The US stock market closed above 1.2550, with a gain of less than 0.1% for the day, failing to approach the low point since November 23rd, which was close to 1.2500. The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar rose above 7.18 in the early Asian session, hitting a new daily high of 7.1799. After a brief rebound in the early Asian session, it continued to decline. European stocks approached 7.20 to 7.1990 before the European session, hitting a new low since November 20th, which was created last Friday. The offshore renminbi against the US dollar was down 118 points for the day, and briefly recovered to 7.19 during the European session, but quickly fell below that level. At 5:59 am Beijing time on December 12th, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1943 yuan, down 71 points from the New York closing price last Friday, marking a two-day consecutive decline. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $40,200 in the early Asian session, down nearly $3,900 or nearly 9% from the intraday high above $44,000 at the beginning of the session. It quickly rebounded above $41,000, narrowing the decline. The decline in the US stock market widened again during the midday session, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $40,300. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $41,100, with a decline of over 6% in the past 24 hours, far from the intraday high of over $44,600 reached last Friday, which was the highest since April last year. Crude oil continued to rise from a five-month low, while US natural gas fell nearly 6% to a six-month low. International crude oil futures rebounded during Monday's session. In the early Asian session, US WTI crude oil rose above $71.80, up more than 0.8% for the day, while Brent crude oil rose to $76.5, up 0.9% for the day. After a brief decline in the pre-European session, European stocks hit a new daily low, and US oil fell below $70.40, down more than 1.2% for the day, while Brent oil approached $75, down nearly 1.1% for the day. Subsequently, there were several short-term rebounds, and the US stock market completely reversed its decline during the midday session. In the end, crude oil closed higher for two consecutive days after a six-day consecutive decline. January WTI crude oil futures rose 0.126% to $71.32 per barrel, while February Brent crude oil futures rose 0.25% to $76.03 per barrel. Both WTI and US oil continued to rise from the closing low since June 27th, which was set last Thursday. Gasoline and natural gas futures in the United States fell together. NYMEX January gasoline futures fell 0.33% to $2.0431 per gallon, falling back after rebounding over 2% last Friday, but still not approaching the two-year low set on Thursday; NYMEX January natural gas futures fell 5.81% to $2.4310 per million British thermal units, hitting a closing low since June 14th, falling for two consecutive days. Natural gas in the United States fell sharply on Monday, with a slight rebound after hitting a daily low at midday. London copper stops after two consecutive gains, falling from the high of the past week; gold futures fall below $2000 for the first time in two weeks on Thanksgiving London base metal futures mostly fell on Monday. London copper and London nickel, which had risen for two and three consecutive days respectively, fell more than 1%, falling from the high of the past week. London tin fell for two consecutive days to a low of the past week. London aluminum, which had a slight rebound last Friday, fell to a low since the end of September last year. London lead rebounded for two consecutive days to a high of the past week after falling for more than ten days. London zinc, which hit a new low for more than three months for three consecutive days, also rebounded. New York gold futures hit a daily high of $2023.7 in the Asian session, rising nearly 0.5% during the day. European stocks fell before the market opened and continued to fall, while US stocks fell below $2000 in early trading and hit a daily low of $1991.2 at midday, down nearly 1.2% during the day. In the end, COMEX February gold futures fell 1.03% to $1993.7 per ounce, hitting a closing low since November 22nd, and closing below the $2000 mark for the first time since Thanksgiving, falling for three consecutive days. Gold futures continued to decline after falling below $2000 in European stock pre-market trading, with US stocks falling below $1976 at midday, hitting an intraday low since November 20th, down nearly 1.4% during the day. Spot gold fell below $2000 on Monday, just like futures gold.