TechInsights: The global smartphone replacement rate may drop to 23.5% in 2023.

In 2023, the global smartphone replacement rate is expected to drop to a record low of 23.5%, with a replacement cycle of 51 months. Due to factors such as geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the global economic outlook, TechInsights has lowered its forecast for global smartphone sales in 2023 and 2024, leading to a further decline in the replacement rate. From 2024 onwards, as the economy recovers and 5G migration takes place, the replacement rate will slowly rebound. The replacement rates in the Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and North America will reach historic lows. The replacement rate in the Asia-Pacific region will show an upward trend from 2024 to 2028, but the progress of mature 5G markets will not be as strong as that of emerging markets. The replacement rates in Central Latin America and the Middle East and Africa will continue to decline, but improvements in infrastructure such as 5G network construction will drive an increase in the replacement rate. The Central and Eastern European markets will experience fluctuations, and the replacement rate at the end of the forecast period will not exceed that of 2019.