100 Q&A with Duan Yongping last year: Involving Tencent, Apple, Moutai, life...

This article is a compilation from Investment and Health. (Question: Do you only invest in companies that have a guaranteed success?) Why not? "The biggest characteristic of my 'fully invested' philosophy is that I don't pay much attention to 'timing', but I do care a lot about 'business models + corporate culture'." "In the past decade, I have truly understood two companies, Apple and Moutai. On average, it takes me six years to understand one company. But most people think they are already very capable, so they are neither willing to 'enlighten' nor 'perceive'." "Pretending to swim is dangerous, just like pretending to invest. However, many people don't quite understand where the danger of pretending to invest lies until they understand the danger." "Do things that stand the test of time. After five, ten, or twenty years, you will understand the difference." "The term 'gambling' usually refers to a bet with a 48% chance of winning. A bet with a winning chance of over 90% is what I usually call an investment." "Correcting mistakes should be done as soon as possible, and the cost is always the smallest." "Reading and enlightenment are two different things. After I started investing, I found that the proportion of people willing to think is much smaller than I imagined." "Do the right things, and you will save yourself a lot of trouble." ... As usual, we have compiled a summary of Duan Yongping's Q&A on Xueqiu over the past year. Here are some excerpts. Duan Yongping is likely the Chinese investor who is closest to Warren Buffett. He has a dual identity as an investor and an entrepreneur, with rich experience and perspectives. The excerpts are all from Duan's answers. Some annotations have been added in parentheses to provide context. The content mainly focuses on investment but is not limited to it. General framework: business models, corporate culture, personal approach, beyond investment, Apple and Moutai, comments on other industries and companies. Due to the lack of contextual information, those who are interested can follow Duan Yongping's social media accounts. About Business Models If you don't prioritize business models, then you probably don't understand the business well. Investing can be quite agonizing. In this world, there may be dozens, hundreds, or even more industries and industry leaders, but good business models are rare. If you use the method of finding industry leaders, it will be easy to invest in those "industry leaders" with poor business models, and those leaders may just be a fleeting brilliance. If you have (good corporate culture or business models) in mind, the probability of finding them will be much higher, although the probability is still small. But if you don't have them in mind, the probability of finding them may be close to zero. I'm not surprised that Buffett sold TSMC. Although TSMC is remarkable, its business model is a bit burdensome, too heavy. TSMC has always been very focused on what they do, and the results are indeed remarkable. But investment is a comprehensive comparison, and I would prefer companies with better business models. 5. Qualitative analysis is important compared to quantitative analysis, and the most important aspect is the business model. The business model filters out the majority of companies, which significantly reduces the importance of quantitative analysis. So the most important thing I've realized over the years is the business model. Once you understand this, investing becomes really interesting. Up until now, I haven't actually looked at any earnings reports, maybe because I find them a bit difficult to understand (actually, it's just because I'm lazy), or maybe I really don't think it's necessary. I've seen too many people who are good at financial analysis but are completely confused when it comes to investing. Apple has a PE ratio of 30.91, Microsoft is at 35+, and Amazon is at 75! After taking a look around, companies with slightly better business models have very high PE ratios, even with such high government bond interest rates. Is this a bubble? (Question: Do you only invest in companies that have a laid-back approach?) Why not? It's difficult to find companies with both a good business model and corporate culture. Good companies are worth holding onto. Apple is no longer cheap, but I still haven't found a company that I want to exchange my Apple shares for. The definition of differentiation is something that meets the needs of users that others have not been able to satisfy. "Differentiation" is not simply being different... The underlying premise is that it should at least meet the needs of users that competitors have already satisfied. With a good product, the importance of distribution channels becomes less significant. The best distribution channel is a model like Apple stores, where the channel aligns perfectly with the company culture. Otherwise, it's best to strive in that direction. I suddenly remembered something that Old Ba once said: If you're in a hole, at least stop digging. Companies that have no differentiation in their products will inevitably encounter problems in the future. Airlines are a very good example, and I won't go into detail about other similar examples. I bought a little bit of IMax about 10 years ago, but quickly realized that its business model was not good and sold it off. Evaluating companies based on their business models is very helpful for investment, especially when you look at it from a 10-year perspective. About Corporate Culture Companies with a poor corporate culture will inevitably have a harder time in the long run. Even good companies occasionally have tough times. If I lose trust in a company's culture and management, I will decide to leave. For me, understanding every detail of a company's operations to decide whether to vote for or against something is a time-consuming task, even more difficult than understanding the business model or corporate culture. Do you think environmental protection is not important? Is the pursuit beyond profit really that unimportant? In the eyes of some people, the means are the end, a higher level of means. Right? The so-called pursuit beyond profit is just a higher level means of pursuing profit. In the eyes of means, everything is just means. The pursuit beyond profit is not a means, it is the end! When I bought GE, it seemed that I didn't prioritize the business model. At that time, I thought GE had a good corporate culture. The phrase "The world is changing, everything is changing, but integrity remains unchanged" really impressed me. Later on, I noticed that integrity was no longer mentioned on GE's official website, which seemed very strange. Combined with the increased emphasis on the business model, one day I suddenly decided to sell all my shares. (Q: A company where employees are always fearful of their leaders will eventually run into problems. Because most employees in such a company will become irresponsible.) As long as enough time passes, everything that should happen will happen. (Q: How can corporate culture be changed?) The general method is to talk about it every year, every month, and every day. And just talking about it is definitely not enough, but not talking about it will definitely not bring about change. (Tencent's vision) It used to be "to be a respected internet company", now it is "Value for Users, Tech for Good". I really like the new vision! It's amazing! It has everything in just eight words! I didn't really like the old one, I said that a long time ago. Diversification usually happens when the core business is not strong enough and the company tries to find a way out through diversification, but ends up taking a wrong path. About "understanding" and "insight" This is also why Da Dao has always considered himself an ordinary person. In the past ten years, Da Dao has actually understood only two companies, Apple and Moutai. On average, it takes six years to understand one company. But most people think they are already very capable, so they are unwilling to "comprehend" or "perceive". Before seeing Buffett, I didn't really touch the stock market because I thought it was a speculative thing and didn't want to get involved. It wasn't until I saw Buffett that I suddenly realized that I should be better at understanding companies than most people. (Q: How does Da Dao feel about Microsoft and Nvidia surpassing Apple?) Da Dao only cares about what he can understand. Only those who don't understand will ask everywhere: What do you think? (Q: Da Dao has also bought stocks of Vanke before and believed in Wang Shi, but sold them after holding them for a while... I don't know how you made the judgment to sell when the real estate giants were at their peak?) It's not some superpower, it's just that I didn't understand. I couldn't figure out what would happen in 10 years. Including Vanke, I couldn't understand it, so I haven't touched it again. (Q: Ordinary people may never understand Moutai... How many employees of Moutai, from executives to ordinary staff, truly understand it and buy their own stocks?) We shouldn't expect Moutai's employees to understand it, just like Apple's employees don't understand Apple. Our company's employees won't be any better. If internal employees could understand their own company, then we wouldn't have any problems. (Q: Are you now in a state of contentment and no longer seeking higher returns than Moutai?) You're impressive, how much have you earned?! I don't have time to understand things that I don't understand. I know how difficult it is to truly understand something. It's best not to overestimate oneself. Yes, it is based on understanding the business. Of course, thinking that you understand doesn't mean you really understand. However, if the investments I manage can achieve an annualized return of 12%, I will be satisfied. This approach has a high probability of meeting this target. This is my expectation. The actual results of my investments over the past twenty years have been better than this. 28. It is difficult to understand a company without a traceable history of 10 or 8 years. Understanding a small company is almost an impossible task unless the person who started the company happens to be someone you have known for a long time. Knowledge is not easy, and neither is action. In fact, it is not easy to know what is right, and it is not easy to do things right. Those who think that knowledge is easy and action is difficult may not fully understand. Doing things that stand the test of time, betting with a winning probability of over 90%, and not paying much attention to timing You don't know what you don't know. Pretending to understand investment is very dangerous. Pretending to swim is dangerous, and pretending to invest is the same. However, many people do not quite understand where the danger of pretending to invest lies until they understand the danger. In fact, there is no special method. Unless you can do things that stand the test of time. After five, ten, or twenty years, you will understand the difference. Gambling usually refers to bets with a winning probability of 48%, and bets with a winning probability of over 90% are what I usually call investments. I have never calculated it, just a rough guess. It is better to be vaguely correct than precisely wrong. You should not gamble with something you don't fully understand. Investments that you dare not risk your fortune on are not considered legitimate investments. I am a believer in fully investing. In my investment portfolio, I mainly focus on Apple in the US stock market, Moutai in the A-share market, and Tencent in the Hong Kong stock market. The biggest characteristic of my "fully investing" philosophy is that I don't pay much attention to "timing," but I do care a lot about "business models + corporate culture." Of course, the prerequisite is that the price looks cheap when looking back after 10 years. "Fully investing" does not mean that you must always be fully invested. When there are no suitable investment targets (including when prices are too high), it is okay to hold cash. This is also one of the reasons why you should not easily sell good companies. It is easier to make mistakes when holding cash. One important reason not to sell good companies easily is, what will you buy after selling? It is generally uncomfortable to hold cash, and many people may end up buying companies whose profit models they can't even understand clearly after selling good companies, leading to sleepless nights. It's not worth it! My understanding of "not timing the market" is roughly: when I feel that the price is not expensive from a 10-year perspective and I happen to have money, I can buy it without waiting for a cheaper price, because this price is already good from a 10-year perspective. (Whether to sell) is not related to the current PE ratio, but to the future business situation in the next 30 years. Many people think that (buying stocks) is hunting, but it is actually farming. There is a song called "I bet my life" - on you! by Imagine Dragons. I like this song, and I often think of investment when I listen to it. The word "bet" here may seem like gambling, but it is not. Munger and Buffett are very similar in many ways, both very wise and worthy of respect. Munger is relatively smarter (not in a derogatory sense), always wanting to know everything about everything; Buffett, on the other hand, is relatively simpler. 40. It seems like those who constantly talk about increasing or decreasing entropy are the ones trying to complicate simple matters to appear knowledgeable. Who cares about the specific mistakes made by someone running on the wrong path? The outcome was determined from the beginning. It's best to correct mistakes as soon as possible, as the cost is always minimized. In the end, every company becomes what it was meant to be. The same goes for stock prices. There are no long-term inexplicable stock prices, but there may be short-term fluctuations. (Question: Is the friend mentioned by Li Lu referring to you?) "I have a friend who is very successful in investing, and he told me that investing is similar to playing golf. I agree with him. You must maintain a calm mindset, as any excitement will surely lead to poor performance. Each stroke is independent and unrelated to the previous one. And each stroke requires careful consideration of risk and return. The outcome of one hole does not determine the overall result. It's not until you retire that the result is determined. The records you leave behind are the true achievements of your life, and the longer the time, the more difficult it is. So playing golf can help cultivate the character of an investor." It's very likely. The difficulty lies in determining when the valuation is cheap. Is Apple cheap now? Is Moutai cheap? Is Tencent cheap? Is Alibaba cheap? Is BRKB cheap? What does "cheap" really mean? Many people compare the current price to the past price, but is LeEco cheap? Is GAME STOP cheap? Is AMC cheap? If you don't understand the business, anything you say is meaningless. "I will go all-in on the S&P 500 one day." Here, "one day" refers to after retirement. Buffett said he will retire five years after his death, and that's what I mean too. Every decision is independent. It doesn't matter what you already hold when deciding what to buy. Munger has used a lot of margin and almost went bankrupt in the 1970s. Live well, seek enlightenment, care for and trust your children, and make sure to watch "Forrest Gump" again when you have time. Besides the brain, is there anything else that can move in "immortality"? Is it AI? What's the point? It's enough to live well. Immortality goes against the laws of nature, and it's not something I pursue. When you die, you die! Personally, I don't pursue longevity. Health and living a meaningful life are more important. If there comes a day when I can no longer play sports, I may need to search for the meaning of life again. (Question: In that case, playing golf is a significant part of your life, even more important than investing!) They are all enjoyable activities. Thinking is a habit. I don't know how it develops, but I have indeed seen many people who are not accustomed to thinking. The conclusion that "educated people generally have difficulty understanding the Dao" is a typical statistical misunderstanding. In reality, everyone finds it difficult to understand the Dao. Those who achieve "great success" in investing or business are often a minority who have grasped something, or it may even be luck. Moreover, many "successes" cannot withstand the test of time. If we were to conduct a statistical analysis, I believe the proportion of educated people who understand the "Dao" is definitely higher than that of those who are uneducated, although the overall proportion is still small. Reading and enlightenment are two different things. Reading can be for learning, hobbies, or even killing time, while enlightenment is about deep thinking. Reading may help with enlightenment, but it is not a necessary condition. Deep thinking is a prerequisite for enlightenment. After getting into investment, I found that the proportion of people willing to think is much smaller than I imagined. Reading doesn't necessarily mean reading books, it can also be reading financial reports or browsing the internet, etc. Mr. Buffett likes to read financial reports, while I prefer browsing the internet. I suddenly thought that the translation of "reading" might be misunderstood. I don't read books, but I have a lot of "reading" online. (Question: I have always been confused about what it means to become the person I should be. Does it mean that everyone is destined to become a certain type of person when they are born?) It means that all the decisions you make in your life will shape the person you ultimately become, the "person you should be". In fact, it is a probability problem. In reality, everyone's so-called success or failure is the ultimate result of all their choices. This is what it means to become the person you should be (not the person you want to be). "Being responsible" means setting high standards for oneself, not judging others. Life is not easy, and depression is really scary. Sometimes I also have some uncomfortable thoughts that won't go away. The method I use is to quickly shift my attention. Playing games is a good way to shift attention, listening to suitable music, and exercising (such as golf, swimming) are also methods. This is not professional advice, just my personal experience. Sharing is a hobby, so why talk about selflessness? Since I was young, I have always heard people talk about "selflessness", is that an expectation of others? Hoping that others are "selfless" is actually quite "selfish", right? Anyway, I have never really seen a normal "selfless" person in my life. I think you have some misunderstandings about the Dao. The Dao actually doesn't have any life goals, and it's not even that disciplined. It often accidentally eats or drinks too much. However, the Dao does like to focus on the essence. The Dao is indeed a lucky ordinary person who has figured out some lazy ways, some of which may be helpful to other ordinary people as well. Doing the right thing can save a lot of trouble. I may have a reading disorder. I can't get into reading without a purpose. I actually envy those who can spend a whole day reading a book. I can probably only persist for five minutes. My attention span in class is also about five minutes, the same goes for meetings, and then I don't know where my mind goes. There are differences between people, and sometimes the differences are quite significant. Thinking that one of the characteristics of Chinese people is a love for gambling is actually a blatant discrimination! I don't gamble, and I have seen many Chinese people who don't like gambling, as well as white people who do, like Mickelson. Liking gambling is actually an irrational behavior, and thinking that Chinese people like gambling is a kind of unfounded superiority. The book "Built to Last" is indeed helpful in understanding good companies. Actually, this song is quite good overall, but the phrase "there will always be a return for what you give" cannot be guaranteed to be true, because there may not always be a return for what you give, especially when you do something wrong. "Having talent" emphasizes that without effort, there will be little reward, but it doesn't mean that there will always be a reward for effort. However, there is a higher probability of being rewarded for doing the right things. Looking back after 30 years, the rewards can be significant. Actually, it's quite natural to be "too lazy to move" or "too lazy to think". I am like that myself. However, I enjoy golf, so I often "get moving". I like to delve into things that interest me because I find joy in it. So, liking something is important. I must find time to watch Forrest Gump again. I've watched it more than ten times before, but it's been many years since I last watched it. I like this movie because it is a very well-made historical film that effectively portrays many aspects of that period of history through the story of a "small character" like Forrest Gump. I don't have any unique educational methods! How can caring for and trusting children be considered unique educational methods? That's just bizarre, isn't it? What kind of children will be raised without care and trust? Money can help in nurturing children's talents, but it is often not the most important factor. Moreover, is it really that important for children to "achieve success"? Over the years, I have seen too many children who have achieved success but are not leading fulfilling lives. Parenting. A sense of security is the most important thing, and any behavior that undermines that sense of security should be stopped. Lately, I have blocked many people, simply because "I don't like you either!" Everyone has their own path to follow. Explanation: It means that everyone has different pursuits and choices. Diligence is not a sufficient condition for becoming wealthy. However, diligent people have a higher probability of becoming wealthy if they are on the right path. Customers, as a whole, are definitely rational, given enough time. It is difficult for those who do not understand this to understand business. "Healthier and more sustainable" emphasizes the importance of a stop doing list, which means not doing unhealthy and unsustainable things. Oh, I haven't heard any news about Zong Qinghou for a long time. I think I bumped into him once about ten years ago, and he jokingly said that we had switched roles, he should retire and I should continue working. In fact, we are both doing what we love. About Apple and Moutai How do I view Apple? The main points have been discussed for over a decade. The most important foundation for Apple's product launches is "what can I do for the users". Many years ago, there was a rumor online that Apple would release an Apple TV, and I said, "What can Apple do with such a big TV?" As a result, Apple didn't release it. I still find it difficult to see the logic behind Apple releasing an Apple car. What significant improvement in user experience can an Apple car bring? Apple's earnings reports are always so boring, it's better not to read them. This morning, I joined other members to play a round of golf, and after playing nine holes, someone said they had to leave because Apple was releasing its earnings report. I thought to myself, what's so interesting about Apple's earnings report? Playing golf is more important. In the end, I had to finish the remaining 18 holes by myself. 75. I did have a conversation with Mr. Buffett about Apple, but that was in 2018, after he had already bought Apple. However, I did express my view that Apple's business model is better than Coca-Cola's, and Mr. Buffett was deeply impressed. Apple has experienced more than 10 drops of 40% or more from its peak in the past 20 years, not to mention countless drops of 10-20%. If you had bought Apple on margin, you would have been scared to death, if not bankrupt. I have no intention of reducing my holdings in Apple. I'm only thinking about how to increase my stake. If you are really planning to hold for 10 years, the probability of losing money is low. At least no one has lost money in the past 10 years. But the opportunity cost may not be worth it. I believe Moutai will reach a market cap of 5 trillion yuan sooner or later, but I haven't thought about how long it will take. It probably won't take 50,000 years. I don't remember the P/E ratio of Moutai when I bought it. I just focused on its business model. It's generally right not to buy companies with high P/E ratios. I don't like buying companies with high P/E ratios unless I see the future. Many people think the liquor business is easy to do. I don't know much about liquor, but it's easy to see that there are very few brands that have been successful in this supposedly easy business for so many years. There must be some reason behind it. The premise of "daring to be the best in the world" is being able to "overtake others from behind"! It is said that it takes about 3-5 times the enemy's forces to have a chance to "overtake others from behind". I think it's "ignorant and fearless" to start selling liquor just because they have some money. They really have no idea what a brand is. You must think that Moutai has no competitors that can learn from it, right? Ha, I have a friend who, for some reason, started a distillery in Moutai Town a few years ago. He used to drink Moutai, but now he drinks "liquor that is not worse than Moutai" and often takes friends to drink it. Friends have to say "it's okay, it's okay" to save face, but the next morning they hardly mention it again. Ah... what are they thinking? Oh, Zong Qinghou also started a distillery there. So my "silly friend" is just as silly. Jiaduobao and Moutai are not comparable. They are far apart, like the difference between the Brazilian team and the Thai team. Maybe even bigger. If we consider a 10-year period, I believe Moutai will probably outperform inflation. This is just my understanding, not a guarantee. (Tencent) I also believe that Tencent will probably outperform inflation. About other industries and companies: new energy vehicles, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, ChatGPT, shipping, etc. (New energy vehicles) The degree of homogeneity will be much higher than that of traditional car companies, and it's really hard to say who will survive in 10 years. Maybe 10 years is not long enough, but we will probably know the result in 20 years. Perhaps in 10 years, all car companies will be "new energy" if "new energy" does indeed completely replace "old energy". I don't know much about the automotive industry, but my intuition tells me that it's not easy to differentiate cars, but it's definitely much easier than differentiating silicon wafers. It is highly likely that the survival status of "new energy" car companies in the future will be similar to that of traditional car companies at present. They will be able to sustain their business, but it won't be a particularly good business model. Tencent and Alibaba, after studying them for a while, I still can't figure them out, I can't make a decisive move. I don't understand Pinduoduo, it's probably like Warren Buffett not understanding Microsoft. It seems that the era of not being able to find opponents even with a telescope is truly over. I hope this will bring out the best in Alibaba and ultimately benefit consumers. I did indeed buy some things on Temu, they are indeed cheap and usable, but they don't help me understand its business model. I can't figure out what the situation will be like in 10 years or beyond, so Temu won't change my opinion of Pinduoduo in any way. I always feel like I can't understand e-commerce, I don't know where the moat is, I don't know who will be doing relatively well in 10 years. For example, I find it difficult to understand why Alibaba and others don't learn or can't imitate the impressive aspects of Pinduoduo. If everyone follows suit and learns the impressive aspects, who will be more impressive in 10 years? Everyone wants to learn from Apple, but they can't. In reality, there are very few things in this world that people can't learn. I don't know much about e-commerce (including Pinduoduo), but I like many things about Jack Ma. In the past, I thought Jack Ma was amazing, and today I still think so, regardless of the stock price. In my eyes, Jack Ma is the man who rides a bicycle, ready to run away at any time, but still bravely shouts at those big guys who steal manhole covers. The Jack Ma I have seen has actually not changed. I didn't look at anything else, I just saw that Warren Buffett bought more than 20% of Sinopec (Sinopec Corp). I know he is serious, so I bought about 1 million shares. I won't add more or spend time on it, anyway, I can't understand it even if I spend time on it. So many people have been puzzled by Apple for so long, why should I be able to understand it quickly? However, I understand Warren Buffett, so I'll follow along for fun. It's difficult for me to make big money from this company, I'll be satisfied if I can make a dozen percentage points within a year. Actually, it's a bit like what Warren Buffett did with Activision Blizzard. He believed that Microsoft would buy it, so he bought some shares. Don't think that Warren Buffett understands Blizzard, and don't ask me what's going on with Sinopec. This behavior is simply called arbitrage, of course, there is also a small probability of being trapped. The differentiation of securities firms is generally small and the conversion cost is also small, so it is generally difficult to be a particularly good investment target. I know what banks do, but I find it difficult to understand this business model because there are many loans and I can't figure out where the risks are. In fact, domestic banks are generally very cheap, but they also seem very deep. Regardless, ChatGPT is still worth paying attention to, although it doesn't seem to be usable as a search engine at the moment. I hope it can force out the strongest Google. People's desire for ChatGPT to disrupt search is somewhat similar to their desire for fully autonomous driving, although I also hope they can achieve it. However, it seems very likely that everyone will have their own AI assistant, which will greatly increase efficiency. 93. Both Zoom and SF Express are challenging businesses. Even businesses with poor business models are still businesses. During a period of good leadership, sometimes even difficult businesses can do well, but they are relatively difficult for investment. I don't quite understand the business model of Japanese trading companies. It seems to be a product of Japanese culture, and I haven't seen successful examples elsewhere. I wonder if it's similar to the xx trading companies that were everywhere 20-30 years ago? Mr. Buffett may have seen an opportunity by looking at the financial statements. I have always liked Disney's products, but I have never understood Disney's business model. Why does Disney seem so powerful but always struggle to make money? It seems that this business model is not as wonderful as it seems, but rather a tiring one. However, I will still keep my investment in Disney, after all, it belongs to less than 1% of my investments. My view on Amazon has always been: it is difficult to make money in retail; cloud services will be influenced by other big companies, and companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple will occupy a certain market share in the future. In short, I don't have much understanding of e-commerce, and I have no intention of seriously investing in it so far. When I invested in NetEase, I was still a novice. Being fully invested in stocks for less than half a year, it increased 20 times, and I was indeed a bit dizzy at the time, and I even had a shocking experience in my dreams. As for Apple, I basically don't worry about anything. I have never had a sleepless night because of Apple. Regarding getting close to the supply chain. During the time when Changhong TVs were very popular in the early years, I once told a friend that Changhong is so far away from the supply chain that its costs will be much higher than its competitors in the long run, and they will definitely not be able to sustain it. Operating a business jet is a bit like an airline, but the differentiation is greater than that of an airline because customers are less price-sensitive. However, it is not a very good business model, at least much worse than Apple. Intuitively, energy storage products are difficult to differentiate, and technological differences will be quickly eliminated. Price wars will always accompany this product or industry. I don't really regret selling Netflix because I don't understand how they can make better profits. I still don't understand it now. DSX, I looked it up, this company is called Diana Shipping Inc. It must have been quite painful for those who bought it eight years ago and still hold it now. Important point, the business model is very important! Shipping is like an airline, with a very poor business model. After a long time, nothing is cheap, not the kind of investment I like. Intuitively, I feel that the business model of this industry is not the kind I like. It requires a lot of borrowing (which means high risk), and the products have no differentiation (which means it is difficult to have good long-term profits). A very bad business model. Spending a long time holding onto a company with a bad business model is a high opportunity cost and also affects one's mood, right? The time spent is also an opportunity cost. Microsoft has a very strong moat, but unfortunately I didn't understand it before. I have started to understand it in the past two years, but I haven't had the opportunity yet. Is Sunac still thriving? Whose "sun" are you referring to?