LI AUTO (LI) is set to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 performance before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday.
Revenue Forecast: According to a survey by FactSet of six analysts, the median estimate suggests that LI AUTO's quarterly revenue may more than double to reach 40.2 billion RMB (approximately 5.59 billion USD). LI AUTO projected in November that its revenue would increase by 118% to 123% year-on-year, stating that revenue is expected to reach at least 38.46 billion RMB amid increasing demand for electric vehicles.
Net Profit Forecast: FactSet data indicates that the estimated quarterly net profit is 2.65 billion RMB, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter but a significant increase compared to the same period last year. Analysts predict that the company's full-year net profit will reach 8.91 billion RMB.
Furthermore, based on forecasts from 15 brokerages, LI AUTO is expected to turn a profit in 2023, with the net profit attributable to common shareholders ranging from 6.089 billion to 9.353 billion RMB, with a median of 8.173 billion RMB. Combining predictions from 3 brokerages, LI AUTO's 2023 non-GAAP net profit is expected to range from 8.289 billion to 12.096 billion RMB, representing a significant increase of 396 to 578 times compared to the 20.89 million RMB net profit in the same period of 2022 (non-GAAP).
LI AUTO's Hong Kong-listed shares have surged over 91% in 2023, outperforming the broader market significantly.
Outlook: The delivery volume and revenue of LI AUTO in the next quarter are worth watching, as CEO Li Xiang recently provided guidance on delivering 800,000 vehicles in 2024 on his Weibo account.
New Models: Analyst Hanyang Wang from 86 Research mentioned that investors already have high expectations for the fourth quarter, so the market is more focused on LI AUTO's new models Mega and L6 to be delivered in the first quarter of 2024, as well as the company's cash flow situation.
Capital Expenditure: Wang added that due to the pressure of price wars in the electric vehicle market, investors will pay attention to LI AUTO's capital expenditure situation.

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According to the forecasts of 3 securities firms, LI AUTO's non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is expected to range from 8.289 billion to 12.096 billion, compared to 20.89 million for the same period in 2022, representing a year-on-year increase of 396 to 578 times.

Earnings Report Preview | Expected annual net profit of Li Auto may increase by over 400 times!