On March 6, Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment report showed that in February, the number of employed people in the U.S. was 140,000, slightly below the expected 150,000, but higher than the revised previous value of 111,000.
While the number of employed people rebounded, the wage growth for job stayers continued to slow down, reaching 5.1%, the smallest increase since August 2021. For job switchers, the year-on-year wage growth was 7.6%, marking the first acceleration since November 2022.
Looking at the industry breakdown, according to ADP data, in February, the number of employed people increased in most industries, with the service industry leading the way, including leisure and hospitality, education, and healthcare, adding 41,000 jobs, up from 28,000 in January; the manufacturing industry added 28,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in January; only the natural resources and mining sector and the information services sector saw a decrease in employment, with reductions of 4,000 and 2,000 people, respectively.
Analysis indicates that companies are still hiring employees at a healthy pace. In terms of company size, large enterprises with 500 employees saw the largest increase in employment, adding 61,000 people, while medium-sized enterprises with 50-249 employees added 53,000 jobs.
ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson stated:
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Employment growth remains strong, with a lower wage growth trend but still higher than the inflation rate. In short, the labor market is vibrant, but it does not affect the Fed's interest rate decision this year.
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After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined to 103.62. U.S. stock futures edged up slightly, with Nasdaq 100 index futures expanding to nearly 0.9%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond showed minimal fluctuations, currently at 4.138%.
On Friday evening, the US Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data, which may show significant differences between the two employment reports. According to market expectations, the non-farm employment in February is expected to decrease by 200,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7% from the previous month. The average weekly wage growth rate is expected to slow down from 0.6% to 0.2% on a month-on-month basis, indicating a cooling labor market.
Considering the stickiness of inflation and the relatively strong economy, the third most important figure in the Federal Reserve, FOMC permanent voter, and New York Fed President Williams recently stated in a public speech that there is no need for the Fed to further tighten its policy. He believes that there is still a &#34;long way to go&#34; to achieve the 2% inflation target and considers three interest rate cuts within the year as &#34;an appropriate starting point.&#34;

The analysis points out that the U.S. labor market is vibrant, but this data will not affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this year.

"Mini non-farm" rebounds! The employment figures for February in the United States show an increase of 140,000 people, in line with expectations.