Many economic data released:
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Expectations of interest rate cuts continue to boost the U.S. housing market. In February, the total annualized sales of existing homes increased by 9.5% to 4.38 million households, reaching a one-year high. Inventory surged to the highest level since 2020, with the median sales price increasing by 5.7% year-on-year to a historical high of $384,500.
The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. for March exceeded expectations, reaching a 21-month high since mid-2022, while the Services PMI hit a 3-month low but remained in expansion territory. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly grew in March, with the price index at a four-year low.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week fell by 2,000 from the revised previous value and were lower than expected, remaining close to historical lows.
Driven by the service sector, commercial activities in the Eurozone improved slightly in March, but the contraction in German manufacturing is &#34;unsettling&#34;.
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Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday indicated that the central bank is not too concerned about recent inflation increases. Maintaining the outlook for three interest rate cuts this year in the backdrop of a still strong labor market has boosted risk sentiment, with traders betting on a nearly 70% probability of a rate cut in June.
More Western central banks signal a return to loose monetary policy:
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The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, becoming the first developed country to cut rates.
The Bank of Canada expects quantitative tightening to end next year and will no longer purchase Canadian mortgage bonds.
The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but two hawks abandoned their support for a rate hike, marking the first time since September 2021 that no committee member advocated for a rate hike. This was interpreted by the market as a dovish signal, opening the door for a rate cut as early as June.
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The Bank of England's decision led to a collective decline in the GBP/USD exchange rate and UK bond yields, with the FTSE 100 index rising by over 2%. However, the Central Bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised interest rates by 500 basis points to 50% to address inflation rates as high as 67%, causing a short-term rally in the Turkish lira.
<h2>U.S. stocks rise for the fourth consecutive day, S&amp;P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all hit new highs, Apple falls 4% for the worst performance in seven months</h2>
On Thursday, March 21, following the Federal Reserve's unchanged &#34;dovish&#34; guidance on three interest rate cuts this year, the major U.S. stock indices opened higher as scheduled. With the assistance of large technology and semiconductor stocks, the Dow and Nasdaq opened up by 150 points, subsequently hitting new intraday highs.
The Dow rose by nearly 380 points or about 1%, with Goldman Sachs and Home Depot leading with a 3% increase in constituent stocks. The S&amp;P 500 index rose by a maximum of 0.7%, led by the industrial and banking sectors, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 also rose by 1%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which rose nearly 2% yesterday to achieve its best performance in over a month, once again led the way with an initial increase of 1.5%.
At the close, U.S. stock indices rose for the fourth consecutive day, with the S&amp;P hitting a new closing high for three consecutive days, marking the 20th record-breaking session of the year, standing above 5,200 points. The Dow and Nasdaq hit new highs for two consecutive days, with the Nasdaq 100 also reaching a record high
This week, more than half of the US stock indexes have all risen by over 2%, with the S&amp;P up 2.4%, the Nasdaq up 2.7%, the Dow up 2.8%, and the Russell small-cap stocks up 2.9%:
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The S&amp;P 500 index closed up 16.91 points, a 0.32% increase, at 5241.53 points. The Dow closed up 269.24 points, a 0.68% increase, at 39781.37 points. The Nasdaq closed up 32.43 points, a 0.20% increase, at 16401.84 points.
The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.44%, with the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC) measuring the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closing up 0.46%, hitting a new high since March 7.
The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose by 1.14%, marking the largest increase among major indexes for two consecutive days and reaching the highest level in nearly two years since March 4, 2022. The &#34;fear index&#34; VIX fell by 1% and dropped below 13.
Major US stock indexes hit new closing highs again, but Apple's decline narrowed the Nasdaq's gains significantly towards the end of the session.
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Some analysts believe that the expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks in Europe and the United States this year have led to the continued rise in the stock market and have also strengthened investors' optimism about corporate earnings. Based on the &#34;improvement in corporate earnings prospects and the AI boom background,&#34; Societe Generale has raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 from 4750 points to 5500 points, becoming the most optimistic investment bank on Wall Street. However, UBS warned that the gains in large tech stocks are not sustainable.
Most star tech stocks fell. &#34;Metaverse&#34; Meta rose by 0.4%, Amazon erased a 1.8% gain to close flat, Microsoft rose by about 1%, Netflix fell by 0.8% to fall below the highest level since the end of 2021, Apple closed down by 4.1% to its worst performance in seven and a half months since August 4 last year, with a market value loss of over $110 billion, Google A fell by 0.8%, and Tesla fell by 1.6%.
Chip stocks rose across the board but halved their gains in the afternoon. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.3%, reaching a high of 4% during the session, approaching the psychological barrier of 5000 points and the intraday historical high set on March 8, non-farm payroll day. Nvidia rose by 1.2%, up for the fourth consecutive day approaching the historical high set on March 7, Nvidia's double long ETF rose by 2%; Intel rose by 0.5%, TSMC's US stock rose by about 2%, but AMD opened high by 4.4% before turning down by 0.6% to hit a three-week low;
Micron Technology rose more than 14%, achieving its best performance since December 2011, while Broadcom rose 10% and closed up 5.6%.
AI concept stocks turned lower after midday. Palantir fell by 0.3%, Oracle fell by 0.1% after hitting a three-day high, C3.ai fell by nearly 1%, Adobe dropped by 1.5%, SoundHound.ai fell by nearly 16%, and BigBear.ai dropped by almost 4%. However, AMD rose more than 8%, ending a five-day decline, and Silicon Valley AI infrastructure hardware unicorn Astera Labs surged by 29%, doubling its IPO price from Wednesday.
On the news front, the Biden administration officially filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, claiming that the iPhone, smartwatches, and payment ecosystem have monopolistic characteristics, causing the &#34;Big Seven Sisters of US tech stocks&#34; to give back gains. There are also reports that the EU is targeting Apple and Google, investigating these two companies in the first digital market law probe, which may lead to heavy penalties and potentially investigate Meta next.
Memory and storage chip leader Micron Technology exceeded expectations in the second quarter with revenue increasing by nearly 58% year-on-year, turning a net loss into a profit, and attributing its success to the multi-year opportunities opened up by artificial intelligence. TD Cowen upgraded Broadcom's rating to outperform the market, emphasizing further potential upside in the AI business. The investment bank also raised NVIDIA's target price to $1100 and reiterated its buy rating.
Chinese concept stocks deepened their losses after midday. ETF KWEB fell by 1.7%, CQQQ fell by 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 1.6%, approaching a one-week low after rising by 1.9% yesterday and outperforming the US stock market all day.
Popular individual stocks fell across the board, with JD.com down by 3.9%, Baidu down by over 2%, Pinduoduo down by 7.5%; Alibaba down by 0.5%, Tencent ADR down by 1%, Bilibili down by 8.8%, Nio down by nearly 2%, Li Auto down by 7.5% after lowering first-quarter delivery guidance, and XPeng down by 3%. However, Lufax Holding, which plans to distribute approximately 10 billion yuan in special dividends, surged by nearly 46%. According to reports, Alibaba is set to sell Bilibili ADRs, with an expected pricing of $11.60 per ADR, potentially realizing $357.8 million.
Bank stocks continued their upward trend from yesterday. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose by 2.2%, marking a five-day consecutive increase to reach the highest level in a year since the industry crisis in March last year, while the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) rose by 1.4%, following a 3% jump yesterday.
Other notable stock movements include:
<blockquote>
Retail investor-focused &#34;American Reddit&#34; surged by a maximum of 70% on its first day of listing, closing up by over 48%. This is the first mainstream social media IPO since 2019, with the overnight disclosed offering price of $34 at the upper end of the guidance range, valuing the company at approximately $6.5 billion
The two economic leaders, FedEx and Nike, announced their financial reports after hours. FedEx's operating profit exceeded expectations, narrowing the performance guidance range, with the stock price rising more than 11% after hours, driving UPS up by 3%. Nike's revenue exceeded expectations, rising more than 2% after hours.
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European stocks rose across the board, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 closing up 0.90%, hitting historical highs in both intraday and closing levels. The German stock index hit a new high for the third consecutive day, while the UK stock index saw its largest increase in six months, approaching historical highs along with the French stock index. Gucci's parent company, Kering, which fell nearly 12% yesterday, continued to decline by over 1%, while Dior rose by 2.5%. Among the &#34;Eleven Arhats&#34; of European stocks, ASML rose by about 5.6%, SAP hit a new closing high, and Roche fell by over 2.5%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6640334f-316c-4422-b51f-7537b6e7db9c.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6640334f-316c-4422-b51f-7537b6e7db9c.jpeg"/>
<h2>US Treasury yields first fell then rose, while European bond yields collectively declined, and UK bond yields briefly plunged into double digits</h2>
In pre-market trading, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries both fell by 4 basis points, but rebounded at the beginning of the US stock market session. Following the announcement of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy yesterday, the 2-year US Treasury yield briefly plunged by 9 basis points to a daily low.
The more interest rate-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield rose by nearly 4 basis points during the US stock market session to 4.64%, moving away from a one-week low. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by over 2 basis points to 4.29%, still giving back nearly half of the gains since last Thursday, having hit a high of 4.35% on Monday, the highest since late November last year.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/0f3ab973-ae46-4ee0-ba19-dfa1f9104c98.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/0f3ab973-ae46-4ee0-ba19-dfa1f9104c98.jpeg"/> US Treasury yields first fell then rose
As the benchmark 10-year German bond yield in the Eurozone fell by nearly 3 basis points, the 2-year yield dropped by 5 basis points, and the Swiss National Bank's rate cut announcement briefly pushed it below 2.85%. After the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, the 2-year UK bond yield, sensitive to interest rates, briefly plunged by 11 basis points, while the 10-year benchmark bond yield fell by 7 basis points, with a significant narrowing of losses by the end of the session.
<h2>Oil prices fell for two consecutive days, dropping 1% intraday and erasing most of the weekly gains, while European natural gas also fell for two consecutive days</h2>
International oil prices fell for two consecutive days, further moving away from the near five-month high set in late October last year.
WTI May crude oil futures closed down $0.20, a decrease of over 0.24%, at $81.07 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures closed down $0.17, a drop of about 0.20%, at $85.78 per barrel.
US WTI crude oil fell by about $1 or 1.2% at its lowest, breaking below $81. International Brent crude fell by $0.89 or 1%, approaching $85 and staying below $86, essentially erasing the gains made earlier in the week
Oil prices fell for two consecutive days, with a 1% drop during trading hours.
Some analysts believe that this is mainly due to the continued contraction of manufacturing activities in the Eurozone, one of the world's largest crude oil import regions, led by major economies such as Germany and France. However, the tightening fundamentals on the supply side from Russia, OPEC+, and others remain unchanged.
The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell by over 5% for two consecutive days, breaking below 27 euros per megawatt-hour, essentially giving back the gains from earlier in the week. ICE UK natural gas also saw a 4.6% decline for two consecutive days. US natural gas futures fell by about 2% during trading, returning to lows for the month.
The US dollar rose back above 104 to a two-week high, the pound fell by 1%, the yen was below 151, and Bitcoin rose above $67,000 before turning lower.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against a basket of six major currencies, fluctuated and rose back above the 104 level, reaching a two-and-a-half-week high since March 1. Yesterday, after the Federal Reserve decision, it had fallen to the daily low.
The euro fell from a one-week high against the US dollar, essentially erasing yesterday's gains and falling below 1.09. The pound against the US dollar dropped by over 120 points or 1%, falling below 1.27 to a two-week low. The yen against the US dollar remained below the 151 level, approaching the four-month low set yesterday and nearing the low levels since the burst of the Japanese asset bubble in June 1990. Offshore yuan against the US dollar fell by over 110 points, breaking below 7.22 yuan.
Major cryptocurrencies opened high and fell. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose above $67,000 in pre-market trading, fell to $65,000 at the end of the US stock market, after reaching a historical high of nearly $73,798 last week, dropping below $61,000 at one point this Wednesday, with a market value evaporating by about $200 billion. The second-largest Ethereum rebounded 11% from its low and rose above $3,500, then fell back to $3,400.
Spot gold rose above $2,200 to a new high before turning lower, silver fell by nearly 4%, London aluminum rose by over 1%, and tin rose by over 2%.
COMEX April gold futures closed up 1.10% at $2,184.70 per ounce. COMEX May silver futures closed down 0.39% at $25.007 per ounce
Spot silver plunged the most by 3.7% and fell below $25 per ounce, completely wiping out yesterday's gains.
Spot gold rose nearly $36 or 1.6% in pre-market trading on Thursday, breaking through $2222 and $2200 integer levels to hit a new all-time high. However, it turned lower after the midday session of the US stock market and approached $2180.
Citigroup's North America head of commodity research, Aakash Doshi, believes that the upward trend in gold prices will continue. With the current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may rise to $2300 per ounce in the second half of this year, hitting a new high. Credit Suisse also predicts that gold prices could reach $2400.
Analysts also suggest that the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, as well as investors seeking diversification in their portfolios when other asset classes underperform, have also driven strong physical demand for gold.
London industrial metals are generally rising. Dr. Copper, a barometer of the economy, closed up 0.2%, holding above the $8900 integer level, ending a two-day decline. It had briefly surpassed $9160 during Monday's session, reaching an 11-month high. London aluminum rose over 1.2%, London zinc rose 0.6%, London lead fell slightly, London nickel continued to rise slightly, London tin rose 2.4%, approaching a seven-month high again, marking the fifth day of increase in seven days

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More Western central banks have signaled easing, with the market raising the odds of a 70% rate cut by the Fed in June. US stocks have risen for four consecutive days, with SPDR S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all hitting new highs. The industrial and financial sectors are leading the gains, with European stocks also reaching new highs. Chip stocks rose together but halved their gains in the afternoon, with NVIDIA up over 1% approaching historical highs. Micron Tech surged over 14% driven by earnings, while FedEx rose 11% after hours. Apple, facing antitrust lawsuits from the US government, led the decline in large tech stocks, while Reddit closed its first day of trading up 48%. Chinese concept stocks fell across the board, with Pinduoduo and Li Auto down 7.5%, and Bilibili down nearly 9%. The dovish guidance from the Bank of England pushed down Eurozone bond yields and the pound, while US bond yields initially fell then rose, pushing the dollar back to a two-week high and causing the pound to drop by 1%. Oil prices fell for two consecutive days, dropping 1% intraday, while gold briefly rose above $2200

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SPDR S&P 500 hit the 20th historical high of the year, Apple fell 4%, the worst in seven months, and gold hit a new high before turning lower