As Wall Street lowers its estimates, investors' concerns about Tesla's first-quarter electric vehicle deliveries have intensified. However, the actual situation may not be as dire as Wall Street imagines.
According to the market consensus compiled by FactSet, Tesla's first-quarter deliveries are expected to be 457,000 vehicles, higher than the 423,000 vehicles in the same period of 2023, and significantly above analysts' latest forecast of 425,000 vehicles.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives pointed out that any result exceeding 420,000 vehicles would ease the market's concerns, as the market is currently worried that deliveries may fall below 410,000 vehicles.
However, the situation may not be as bad as analysts imagine. Tesla announced last Friday on X that the six millionth Tesla has been produced.
Tesla is expected to announce its first-quarter 2024 delivery data this Monday and its first-quarter earnings on April 17.
By combining Tesla's historical production and sales data for each quarter, it can be estimated that it produced approximately 440,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2024 (as of March 29). Considering the possible production on March 30 and March 31, the total production for the first quarter could reach 450,000 vehicles.
It is worth noting that production is not the same as sales. There is usually a certain gap between production and sales, with the recent average gap being around 15,000 vehicles per quarter. Therefore, based on Tesla's latest official post, first-quarter deliveries should be between 425,000 and 435,000 vehicles.
Analysts believe that Tesla's first-quarter deliveries will be the biggest catalyst for its stock price this week.
If deliveries reach around 430,000 vehicles, it should be enough to drive the stock price higher. Tesla's performance in the first quarter has been disappointing, with the stock falling nearly 30%, making it the worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500 index.
In addition, deliveries of 430,000 vehicles will also mark another year-over-year growth in Tesla's deliveries. Since the sales decline in the second quarter of 2020 due to the pandemic, Tesla's quarterly deliveries have never declined year-over-year

TSLA

Analysis expects Tesla's first-quarter delivery volume to be 457,000 vehicles, far exceeding analysts' latest forecast of 425,000 vehicles

Tesla hints that this week's Q1 delivery data may not be so bad