Luxury goods giant LVMH: Growth slows in the first quarter, multiple core businesses fall short of expectations

In the midst of a cold winter in the luxury goods industry, despite luxury giant LVMH weathering the luxury goods market slowdown better than most peers, it is now also feeling a hint of chill. On the overnight of April 16th, LVMH Group released its first-quarter financial report, showing a slowdown in year-on-year sales growth and various businesses falling short of expectations. The overall data of the group shows that LVMH achieved organic revenue growth of 3% to 20.696 billion euros in the first quarter, slightly below analysts' expectations of 3.28%. Note: The Q1 revenue in 2023 was 21.035 billion euros, and in fact, the Q1 revenue in 2024 decreased by 2% year-on-year. Despite the overall decline in sales, organic income is growing. "Organic growth" refers to the growth rate achieved through the expansion of the company's own business without considering external factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, company mergers and acquisitions, reflecting the real growth generated internally by the company. The revenue changes in various business segments are as follows (compared to Q1 2023): Fashion and Leather Goods Division: Q1 sales were 10.49 billion euros, with organic income growth of 2%, the slowest Q1 growth since 2016 (excluding the COVID-19 period in 2020), and below analysts' expected growth of 3.22%. Wines and Spirits Division: Q1 sales were 1.417 billion euros, with organic income growth of -12%, worse than analysts' expected decline of 8.66%. Perfumes and Cosmetics Division: Q1 sales were 2.182 billion euros, with organic income growth of 7%, exceeding analysts' expected growth of 6.72%. Watches and Jewelry Division: Q1 sales were 2.466 billion euros, with organic income growth of -2%, falling short of analysts' expected decline of 0.75%. Selective Retailing Division: Q1 sales were 4.175 billion euros, with organic income growth of 11%, higher than analysts' expected growth of 10.5%. By region: Sales in the Asian market (excluding Japan) decreased by 6%, far below analysts' expected growth of 4.14%. Nevertheless, the company's CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony stated that demand for fashion and leather goods in China increased by nearly 10% in the first quarter. Organic income in the U.S. market grew by 2%, in line with expectations. Organic income in the Japanese market increased significantly by 32%, exceeding the expected 14.7%. Organic income in the European market grew by 2%, below the expected 3.49%. LVMH stated that despite the current geopolitical and economic uncertainties, we are satisfied with the performance in the first quarter. After the financial report was released, LVMH's stock price plunged by approximately 3 USD in the short term, falling by about 2.5% during the day, then rebounded, and ultimately closed up by 3.09%. Why did the revenue of the wine and spirits division decline by nearly 12% year-on-year? LVMH Group pointed out that during the epidemic, there was a surge in demand for champagne. Compared to the high growth period after the epidemic, champagne sales have decreased and are gradually returning to normal. In addition, distributors in the first quarter of 2023 anticipated an increase in market demand and restocked, leading to a sharp increase in sales in Q1 2023, resulting in a higher comparison base this year. Furthermore, Hennessy is a famous brand of cognac in France. In the United States, due to the still uncertain market environment, retailers of Hennessy cognac have been more cautious when placing orders, limiting the order quantity. It is worth noting that the famous Minuty estate in Provence rosé wine was included in the financial report for the first quarter for the first time, which may bring new growth opportunities for this division in the future