Key Point: Accelerated Growth in US Retail Sales Data in March
On April 15th, the latest US retail sales data was released. The year-on-year retail sales increased by +4% (previously +2.1%), and month-on-month by +0.7% (consensus +0.4%, previously +0.9%); while the control group retail sales increased by +1.1% month-on-month (previously +0.3%, consensus +0.4%).
In detail, the sub-items with strong growth include non-store retail (+2.7% month-on-month), miscellaneous (+2.1% month-on-month), gasoline stations (+2.1% month-on-month), and general merchandise stores (+1.1% month-on-month); while the weaker performing sub-items include sporting goods (-1.8% month-on-month), clothing (-1.6% month-on-month), furniture and home appliances (-0.7%), and motor vehicles and parts (-0.7%).
Stock Price Performance: Overall Retracement, Defensive and Value Sectors Leading
This week, against the backdrop of a pessimistic monetary policy outlook and rising risk aversion, the S&amp;P 500 fell for 5 consecutive trading days, with a total decline of 3%, confirming a retracement phase. In terms of style, large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value -0.7%) &gt; small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value -1.6%) &gt; small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth -4%) &gt; large-cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth -4.9%).
In terms of sectors, 7 industries rose this week, while 17 industries declined. The rising industries mainly include food, beverage, and tobacco (+3.1%), household and personal products (+2.5%), banks (+2.3%), insurance (+2%), and utilities (+1.8%); while the industries with significant declines include automobiles and auto parts (-11.7%), semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (-11.1%), technology hardware and equipment (-5.9%), software and services (-4.5%), and retail (-4.2%).
Volume and Price Performance: Funds Flowing Out of Technology Industries into Traditional Industries
This week, the daily average fund intensity of the S&amp;P 500 (daily average change x daily average volume) was -$2.61 billion per day, compared to -$0.71 billion per day last week, indicating a significant acceleration of fund outflows in the US stock market. The 4-week average is +$0.22 billion per day, and the 13-week average is +$0.48 billion per day.
Industries that saw funds inflow mainly include healthcare equipment and services (+$64.40 million per day), transportation (+$38.60 million per day), banks (+$37.30 million per day), food, beverage, and tobacco (+$31.00 million per day), and insurance (+$26.10 million per day); while industries with significant outflows include semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (-$1.42 billion per day), technology hardware and equipment (-$0.41 billion per day), automobiles and auto parts (-$0.36 billion per day), software and services (-$0.29 billion per day), and retail (-$88.70 million per day).
Investment Recommendation: S&amp;P 500 Enters Accumulation Zone, Following a Three-step Approach
With the S&amp;P 500 falling for three consecutive weeks, it has confirmed a retracement pattern. Last week, we suggested that the S&amp;P 500 should be slowly accumulated once it falls below 5050. This week, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 4967 points, already entering the recommended accumulation range
Next, we believe there are three additional positions to increase holdings, they are:
<ol>
<li>
120-day moving average (approximately 4900 points, highly probable to reach);
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<li>
200-day moving average (approximately 4700 points, moderately probable to reach);
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<li>
Intrinsic earnings support line (approximately 4500 points, the fundamental bottom line). If the S&amp;P 500 confirms a rebound in advance, consider adding positions on the right.
</li>
</ol>
Risk Warning: Uncertainty in economic fundamentals, uncertainty in international political situation, uncertainty in US fiscal policy, uncertainty in US Federal Reserve monetary policy

.SPX

.IXIC

NVDA

TSLA

MSFT

GOOG

AAPL

AMZN

LB Select

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite Index

NVIDIA

Tesla

Microsoft

Alphabet - C

Apple

Amazon

Meta Platforms

Institution: U.S. stocks enter the accumulation zone, with three steps to increase positions