Vanguard Group "pours cold water": The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year!

Vanguard Group predicts that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year, as housing costs are too high and the job market remains overheated. Despite the rise in unemployment rate, the recruitment trend remains strong, with a slight decrease in wage growth. Vanguard Group's senior economist stated that an early rate cut may trigger inflation. Inflation remains above the target level, with rising housing costs being the main driving factor. Vanguard Group predicts that the core PCE inflation rate will rise to 2.9% by the end of the year, and the Federal Reserve hopes to lower it to below 2.5% before considering a rate cut. Vanguard Group estimates that if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates in 2024, it will not exceed once, and the scale will not exceed 25 basis points