<div id="readability-page-1">7 月 24 日，美股市場迎來了「黑色星期三」的爆擊：標普 500 指數創 ChatGPT 問世以來的最大單日跌幅，並結束了自金融危機以來跌幅不超過 2% 的最佳表現；納指和納斯達克 100 指數暴跌超 3.6%，創 2022 年 10 月以來最大規模跌幅。 過去兩年一路高歌猛進的超大型科技公司們，在二季報的開局，便遭遇了 2022 年以來最慘烈的潰敗。在此之前，它們被大家稱為「華麗七巨頭」（Magnificent 7），而現在，市場的看法似乎已經改變了...特斯拉、Google 財報不佳，七巨頭一夜蒸發 5.5 兆今年上半年，人工智慧熱潮將美股推向新高，但也讓投資人對它的潛在收益產生了更多懷疑。而在特斯拉、Google 不理想的第二季報出爐後，這種懷疑進一步加深，七巨頭市值在一夜間蒸發了 7,620 億美元（約 5.5 兆人民幣）。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbqh8CXZNOWbzkvIfiDD-feYU1-ZFEfQtl-Dledp3LJEfbVGPifX7o6jmz_0QpYTbx1vcoAI6VQsH8oob4En2-y_i8Ovbj5fSEU88Fw5XYmXdYQvUFw_6AAui5DduFg73se_KHt7K5aQ3zkCz_Welm0nVM/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="339" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbqh8CXZNOWbzkvIfiDD-feYU1-ZFEfQtl-Dledp3LJEfbVGPifX7o6jmz_0QpYTbx1vcoAI6VQsH8oob4En2-y_i8Ovbj5fSEU88Fw5XYmXdYQvUFw_6AAui5DduFg73se_KHt7K5aQ3zkCz_Welm0nVM/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>特斯拉財報顯示，儘管第二季營收取得超預期表現，但汽車銷量連續第二季出現下滑，汽車業務毛利率跌至 15% 以下，整體淨利則近乎腰斬，同比大降 45% 至 14.8 億美元。此外，特斯拉 CEO 馬斯克在財報電話會上宣布，計劃在 10 月 10 日舉辦 Robotaxi 發布會，而這一日期較他最初提出的 8 月 8 日有所推遲，他承認過去的預測有些 “過於樂觀」。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdgWEYeVvy5vTAOEBNYr11uH9sl9MF3uoDf9jxk__3aVtS451vBl0q7fUEhn99cmtKXdo98wZovb_IrXO9wg2aOj90zCwqxaIOKsD5o8I0DEp5WzkVLYWYgEB_glOUHBImOQWfgztuDNIxJMWmBgXxl2j2N/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="269" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdgWEYeVvy5vTAOEBNYr11uH9sl9MF3uoDf9jxk__3aVtS451vBl0q7fUEhn99cmtKXdo98wZovb_IrXO9wg2aOj90zCwqxaIOKsD5o8I0DEp5WzkVLYWYgEB_glOUHBImOQWfgztuDNIxJMWmBgXxl2j2N/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>谷歌這邊，二季報整體喜憂參半：「喜」的是搜索廣告和雲業務增長比預期更強勁，而 “憂” 的則是原本市場看好的 YouTube 廣告表現顯著低於預期，且公司大力投入 AI 下資本開支也超出市場預期。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXca7omRoKMA_bo0iXA1bDeLsakjs8my4wucvvVA-q0ueOG3IzyGFLRdoTsHymcCbvhP_-rEkK471P1uWeX8ZYgouC_UuBg5ZrtsGy_lgnhcsn8s-wMaMlSdj0utysNb_YkYGFMBlauh63i71FLwYZl-Rcw/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="309" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXca7omRoKMA_bo0iXA1bDeLsakjs8my4wucvvVA-q0ueOG3IzyGFLRdoTsHymcCbvhP_-rEkK471P1uWeX8ZYgouC_UuBg5ZrtsGy_lgnhcsn8s-wMaMlSdj0utysNb_YkYGFMBlauh63i71FLwYZl-Rcw/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>於是，財報發布後，特斯拉股價重挫超過 12%，Google 亦下跌了 5% 以上。並且在兩者的「帶頭」下，其他科技巨頭也向下俯衝。投資人越來越意識到，AI 現在更像是一種支出，而對 AI 能力的巨額投入是否真的會帶來回報卻還不可知。槓桿押注廣受歡迎，科技下殺血本無歸此前，在人工智慧推動下的美股科技巨頭大漲期間，一批以科技股為核心的槓桿型 ETF 廣受歡迎。對於希望利用槓桿增強回報的投資者來說，此類 ETF 可以將標的資產的日波動放大兩到三倍，並被設計成短期持有。美國市場上現有 192 隻槓桿 ETF，總管理資產為 652.9 億美元，其中最大的一隻 Direxion 三倍做多半導體 ETF(SOLX.US) 規模過百億，另外還有 Direxion 三倍做多標普 500ETF(SPXL.US)、ProShares 三倍做多納指 ETF(TQQQ.US) 等。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdMbIw2R2LLVrMybyHunTCOm0BNZ_tEj0BYhlhETbGZ3dPEUd-q6OTkCvNGSi80IC3xWAxTPN-EllS4DfL3H0DuBOUzE4J_b2romTvNevnM52droXFzdsVoeU0Tjgnk6MMPiUuAxOF4pgKztKhno91bXrY3/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="327" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdMbIw2R2LLVrMybyHunTCOm0BNZ_tEj0BYhlhETbGZ3dPEUd-q6OTkCvNGSi80IC3xWAxTPN-EllS4DfL3H0DuBOUzE4J_b2romTvNevnM52droXFzdsVoeU0Tjgnk6MMPiUuAxOF4pgKztKhno91bXrY3/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>今年以來，槓桿多頭和空頭單股基金已累積了約 90 億美元的資金流入，槓桿多頭 ETF 的流入巨大，例如 SOXL 在上週就吸收了超過 15 億美元資金。在近期科技股的大幅下殺裡，抄底槓桿多頭產品的投資人慘遭「血洗」。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7sM8CLE3Dy5vV53jZxfMTssbirHJ-EaoKgee6_OioI64fwENmJx8IBLB59q91P7xQ_PJsNgibqEwZBss2-6h_NxYmYKxkekBBtnXRGpaDpuoDohEb344tkgMtT9OYf48e7RLto095UoR2nmq-6eqvQI0/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="339" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7sM8CLE3Dy5vV53jZxfMTssbirHJ-EaoKgee6_OioI64fwENmJx8IBLB59q91P7xQ_PJsNgibqEwZBss2-6h_NxYmYKxkekBBtnXRGpaDpuoDohEb344tkgMtT9OYf48e7RLto095UoR2nmq-6eqvQI0/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>「集中交易」風險降臨，市場風格開始轉向先前，華爾街就有不少人擔憂 AI 泡沫破滅的可能，認為人工智慧的反彈使得標普 500 指數過去一年增加了 9 兆美元的泡沫，而這個泡沫注定會破裂。從市值漲幅看，幾乎整個標普 500 指數的上升都是由科技巨頭們推動的。週三對於科技股的集體拋售是空頭認為市場中潛在的「集中風險」的另一個教訓。儘管暴跌有利於逢低買入，但財報季才剛開始，蘋果、微軟、亞馬遜和 Meta 等公司都將於下周公布業績，考驗仍將持續。彭博彙編的數據顯示，在已公佈業績的標普 500 指數公司中，利潤超出分析師預期的幅度是自 2022 年底以來的最低水平，而營收意外則是至少兩年來最糟糕的。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfKkXnfb4d8K-QeDweSKexJriil8KjfD8pVgh85bwZlNO3DGFjLIJWE_U7ePVYjskTGatWAPVmKk7WTbjCVrGE1cgoUHwdQMNE4hWMTdNtNN0od16_3WZlg56w6CNuJz8DGFPah9VxZYnfqiBHBydciXLFt/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="554" height="340" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfKkXnfb4d8K-QeDweSKexJriil8KjfD8pVgh85bwZlNO3DGFjLIJWE_U7ePVYjskTGatWAPVmKk7WTbjCVrGE1cgoUHwdQMNE4hWMTdNtNN0od16_3WZlg56w6CNuJz8DGFPah9VxZYnfqiBHBydciXLFt/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>盈透證券高級經濟學家 Jose Torres 稱，股市調整遠未結束。 “估值擔憂與前期收益、非理性繁榮、盈利預期過高以及總統選舉相伴，本季度可能出現 10% 至 15% 的調整，這是一年中歷史上最糟糕的時期。”交易員開始從大型股轉向了市場的落後部分。以羅素 2000 指數為代表的小型股表現連續第四個交易日（也是最近 11 天內第 10 次）超過大盤股，顯示投資者的品味已從主導基準指數的大型科技公司中轉向。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdTWTAsnNhm8sTBYwVlmhawTKA7Pe0jHiXS0oX_fiuvHEKYIeTgH_1SdduDplYVD5jqdV5FwSvjxd5LS3GqwygPgSHq24YZwRv5HhBHT6AnFYhGqO6BDtunIUl5bwBFJ161eCbuUGfadz9-WwLEUkVPB4-H/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="329" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdTWTAsnNhm8sTBYwVlmhawTKA7Pe0jHiXS0oX_fiuvHEKYIeTgH_1SdduDplYVD5jqdV5FwSvjxd5LS3GqwygPgSHq24YZwRv5HhBHT6AnFYhGqO6BDtunIUl5bwBFJ161eCbuUGfadz9-WwLEUkVPB4-H/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>過去小型股因對利率上升的敏感性而受到的打擊比大型股公司更嚴重，但第一季顯示出初步穩定的跡象。產業分析師預期小型股獲利將大幅反彈，樂觀情況下到 2024 年第四季末，獲利成長率將達到 50% 以上。<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeE22NFMe4fDem614XnR1-pqsxxZbyg17U-M_EJjdveAMe88rT4OaZemEWLwkBMSoh--xfWhrJwadrd4RHwRifZErGdEXIVfWTg50t0elt2e3qe_reM_uX3BmisvPhHK3A5cW8PKQE4J8ybEMVX_TelgLLm/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="602" height="443" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeE22NFMe4fDem614XnR1-pqsxxZbyg17U-M_EJjdveAMe88rT4OaZemEWLwkBMSoh--xfWhrJwadrd4RHwRifZErGdEXIVfWTg50t0elt2e3qe_reM_uX3BmisvPhHK3A5cW8PKQE4J8ybEMVX_TelgLLm/query-a2V5PVRja3d3NkFGQ1hQdmVkMm0yUzlVdnc"/>這也意味著，市場的風格轉向或許還會持續進行。當科技巨頭們不再像看起來那樣 “華麗”，曾經的繁榮最終都可能會變成難以下嚥的 “苦果”。</div>

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After the second-quarter earnings reports, the market value of US tech giants experienced a significant evaporation. Poor financial results from Tesla and Google led to an overnight shrinkage of 5.5 trillion RMB. Tesla's revenue performance exceeded expectations, but car sales declined and net profit dropped significantly. Google's search advertising and cloud business showed strong growth, but YouTube advertising performance was below expectations. Investors are starting to question whether the massive investment in artificial intelligence can bring returns. This event exposed the risks of tech giants, and the market has generated more doubts about the AI hype

- On July 24, the US stock market experienced a "Black Wednesday," with the S&P 500 index recording its largest single-day drop since ChatGPT's inception, ending its streak of less than 2% declines since the financial crisis. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 indices plummeted over 3.6%, marking the largest drop since October 2022. The once-lauded "Magnificent 7" tech giants faced a brutal setback in the second-quarter reports, with Tesla and Google disappointing, leading to a combined loss of $762 billion overnight.
- Tesla's revenue exceeded expectations in Q2, but with consecutive declines in car sales and a drop in the automotive gross margin to below 15%, net profit nearly halved year-on-year to $1.48 billion. Google saw mixed results in its Q2 report, with strong growth in search ads and cloud business but disappointing YouTube ad performance, causing concerns over AI investments. Following their decline, other tech giants followed suit, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding AI returns.
- Amid the recent tech sell-off, leveraged bets on tech stocks faced severe losses, with concerns over the bursting AI bubble growing. The market shift towards smaller stocks, as seen in the Russell 2000 index outperforming large-cap stocks, indicates a change in investor preferences. Small-cap earnings are expected to rebound significantly, potentially signaling a prolonged market style shift away from the once-dominant tech giants towards smaller companies sensitive to rising interest rates.

Evaporate 5.5 trillion! Is the AI bubble bursting, finally releasing "risk" for US tech giants?