The Fed's indicators issue a warning: the probability of an economic recession reaching 70%

The economic recession warning issued by the Federal Reserve has attracted attention, with a recession probability reaching 70%. The model used by the Federal Reserve shows that the 10-year Treasury yield, 3-month Treasury yield, and current federal funds rate are key variables in predicting a recession. Although this model has shown a recession indicator of over 70% twice in the past, an economic recession did not occur. Economics professor Jonathan Wright believes that the risk of tightening monetary policy leading to a recession exists, but the predicted 70% probability is exaggerated. He believes that the Federal Reserve is still deliberately adopting a restrictive monetary policy to reduce inflation