According to the Zhītōng Finance and Economics APP, the globally renowned data analysis company GlobalData recently released a report stating that the weight loss drug Zepbound, launched by the American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY.US), which is widely welcomed by global consumers and known as the &#34;miracle weight loss drug,&#34; may soon face direct and intense competition with the weight loss drug VK2735 under the &#34;newcomer in weight loss drugs&#34; Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US). Viking is expected to launch its leading weight loss drug VK2735 in the United States in the coming years, with the main ingredient of this drug being similar to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.
This latest forecast comes after Viking, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, announced its second-quarter performance last month. The company stated that it will accelerate the timeline for the Phase 3 clinical trials of VK2735. VK2735 is a weight loss drug based on a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, with its main component similar to Eli Lilly's Zepbound, also known by Eli Lilly as &#34;tirzepatide.&#34;
The core effective ingredient of Eli Lilly's weight loss drug is tirzepatide, while the main effective ingredients of Ozempic and Wegovy, launched by its largest competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO.US), are semaglutide. In clinical practice, doctors often consider using Eli Lilly's Mounjaro or Novo Nordisk's Ozempic for weight loss + blood sugar reduction based on individual patient conditions, especially for patients with both diabetes and obesity.
Tirzepatide and semaglutide are new drugs used to treat type 2 diabetes and for weight management, but they have significant differences in mechanism of action, molecular structure, and effects. In a previous groundbreaking study, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide showed significantly better results in weight management compared to Novo Nordisk's semaglutide.
Tirzepatide is a dual receptor agonist that can simultaneously activate GLP-1 and GIP receptors. This dual mechanism of action may make it more effective in regulating blood sugar and weight than a single GLP-1 receptor agonist. Semaglutide is a GLP-1 receptor agonist that regulates blood sugar and weight by mimicking the action of GLP-1 hormones. Therefore, tirzepatide is a synthetic peptide that combines the characteristics of GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonists, while semaglutide is a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist that mimics natural GLP-1 hormones but has its half-life extended through chemical modification.
It is understood that after receiving written feedback from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Viking, headquartered in San Diego, California, has announced that VK2735, which produced positive mid-term data earlier this year, will enter Phase 3 clinical trials. Compared to a previous mid-term trial, this update signifies an accelerated timeline for Viking's weight loss drug development.
&#34;If VK2735 enters Phase III clinical trials next year, it may become one of the next mainstream weight loss therapies to enter the market, and due to its similar mechanism of action, it will directly compete with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.&#34;
&#34;GlobalData pharmaceutical industry analyst Costanza Alciati said.
Alciati added that Viking is expected to meet with the FDA later this year to discuss the plan. &#34;By directly entering the crucial Phase III clinical trials, it may enter the market earlier than expected, saving costs of over hundreds of thousands of dollars.&#34;
However, developers of upcoming weight-loss drugs may face new challenges as their two main competitors, Novo and Lilly, are seeking to expand the labels of their obesity treatment drugs.
For example, Novo and Novo Nordisk have successfully obtained formal approval from the US Food and Drug Administration to push their obesity treatment drug Wegovy into the cardiovascular treatment market to reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases in overweight and obese patients, such as the probability of heart attacks.
After Lilly's Tirzepatide brought similar cardiovascular treatment benefits in a significant Phase III trial, Lilly announced last week that the company will meet with US regulators later this year to submit relevant data.
&#34;Observing whether new therapies entering the obesity market will follow Lilly and Novo Nordisk's approach of pursuing label extensions or choose other strategies to enhance their competitiveness will be a very interesting thing,&#34; Alciati concluded.
Weight-loss drugs are popular worldwide, with an immensely broad future market size
The latest survey data released by the well-known health research institution KFF shows that currently, one in every eight American adults has tried new rapid-growing diabetes and anti-obesity drugs, including Novo and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Lilly's Mounjaro, highlighting the rapid spread of these treatment methods among adults. The KFF survey also shows that about half of those who have tried injecting these weight-loss drugs are still taking them. This new public opinion survey was conducted at the end of April and sampled nearly 1,500 adults through online and telephone surveys in English and Spanish.
Weight-loss drugs such as Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound, as well as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, are penetrating the obese and diabetic populations in the United States and globally. In the United States, the incidence of diabetes and obesity has been steadily increasing for decades.
According to research data from Bloomberg Intelligence, by 2030, the market size of such weight-loss drugs is expected to reach at least $80 billion. Goldman Sachs' expectations are even more optimistic, with a forecast report from Goldman Sachs showing that by 2030, the annual sales of the global anti-obesity drug market may grow to around $130 billion, while the annual sales earlier in 2023 were only $6 billion. The World Obesity Federation (WOF) estimates that by 2035, over 4 billion people (more than half of the world's population) may suffer from varying degrees of obesity.&#34;

VKTX

American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Zepbound may directly compete with the "rising star of weight loss drugs" Viking Therapeutics' weight loss drug. Viking plans to launch its leading weight loss drug VK2735 in the coming years, which is similar to Lilly's tirzepatide. This prediction was made after Viking announced its second-quarter performance, and the company will accelerate the clinical trial schedule for VK2735. Tirzepatide and semaglutide are new drugs used for treating type 2 diabetes and weight management, but they differ in mechanism of action and effects. This competition may have an impact on Lilly's weight loss drug market

"Weight loss drug newcomer" Viking may be the most direct competitor to Eli Lilly