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<p>This week, the average daily turnover rate of A-shares has dropped to the lowest level in recent years, with market participants shifting towards low-turnover passive funds. Although historically low volume may signal the market bottom, more indicators are needed to support this, such as turnover rate and profit upgrades. The alleviation of recession concerns in the United States, along with improvements in CPI and retail data, will ease market pressure, and real assets may see a tailwind. The key question is whether demand can stabilize after the interest rate cut</p>

- A-share market saw a significant decrease in trading activity this week (20240812-20240816), with daily turnover hitting the lowest since 2020Q4. The shift to "low-volume" trading reflects a transition in market participants towards passive funds and insurance capital, while active trading funds like margin trading and northbound trading have decreased in activity. Market recovery indicators like increased turnover volatility, rising industry profits, and improved investor sentiment are still awaited for a clearer market outlook.
- Concerns over a global recession have eased as recent US economic data, including July CPI and retail figures, alleviated recession worries, leading to a rebound in industrial metals and gold prices. The shift signifies a reevaluation of asset choices amid changing macroeconomic conditions. Post-rate cut, the stability of demand and the potential improvement in physical assets post-stress testing indicate a favorable outlook. The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and August non-farm data will provide further economic insights.
- Domestic economic resilience persists as July data shows strength in production and rising demand in manufacturing and infrastructure investments. With pressure on physical consumption gradually lifting, driven by infrastructure projects and government investment initiatives, a rebound in investment demand is anticipated. Banks have shifted focus from trading-driven gains to fundamental advantages, benefiting from adjustments in asset and liability structures under central bank policies, indicating a stabilized net interest margin.

Is "ground volume" followed by "land price"?