Goldman Sachs lowers its forecast for US economic recession to 20% based on strong retail and employment data

Goldman Sachs economists, after analyzing last week's retail and unemployment data, have lowered the probability of a US economic recession in the next year from 25% to 20%. They pointed out that if the September 6 employment report performs well, the probability may be further reduced to 15%. Retail sales in July saw the largest increase since 2023, and the number of unemployment benefit applicants has dropped to a record low. In addition, Goldman Sachs is more confident in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September, despite the risk of unexpected downturns. Overall, the current economic data supports stable growth in the US economy