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<p>CICC believes that it will be difficult for US stocks to rise significantly, and the future trend is closely related to the results of the US presidential election. Although the US economy faces the risk of cyclical recession, there is no systemic risk, mainly due to the rise in unemployment rate and the stability of household balance sheets. The Fed may pause QE due to inflation, and liquidity drive is the main reason for the recent rise in US stocks</p>

- The US economy is sliding towards a cyclical recession with no systemic risks, as indicated by the accelerating rise in the unemployment rate, historically linked to economic downturns. Despite this trend, the household balance sheet remains robust, indicating limited systemic risks due to low debt levels and potential liquidity support from the Federal Reserve in case of a crisis.
- The era of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve may temporarily end due to rising inflation, influenced by structural shifts post-pandemic and a potential move away from QE as inflation rises. The stock market's post-pandemic surge has been primarily driven by liquidity, with historical instances of market upswings tied to liquidity injections and policy changes.
- The future trajectory of the US stock market remains uncertain, with constraints like inflation limiting Fed easing measures and potential political outcomes impacting market dynamics. The market's direction post-election hinges on factors like tax policies, Fed actions, and the resurgence of the "suction effect" driving market trends, with different scenarios depending on the election results.

Has the rebound in US stocks ended?