Huawei's third foldable phone, another speculative machine?

Editor | Yang Bocheng Cover Image | Wenxin Yige "Huawei's most leading, innovative, and disruptive product is here! This is a groundbreaking product that others can only think of but cannot achieve. With 5 years of persistence and investment, we have turned science fiction into reality." This product mentioned by Richard Yu may be the upcoming global first mass-produced foldable phone from Huawei - Mate XT Extraordinary Master. Image Source: Richard Yu Weibo According to the official teaser video, the back design of Mate XT Extraordinary Master phone is similar to the Mate 60 RS Extraordinary Master style. The module is overall black, surrounded by a metal-colored decorative frame, and a polygonal camera module on the back. The back cover of the body is made of plain leather material, with a vertical metal-colored "HUAWEI ULTIMATE DESIGN" logo visible below the camera module. ![](http://www.kdocs.cn/api/v3/office/copy/aGFIN1d3UU9KRnl0OFpBZGovdG1IdC9TSnN6cjlpaWhWMld6cHNXaUVHUWUyR3QrclRUMUcvS1h4RFRiK0l4emVtQ1k1K3RJOVZvbzN5QXFoeWt6YUtPN3hGcG5KdnpoT0tHL0dwNitBRWt6TGJBUk1lVXVJeGdjTXRYclR4REE0dVlFY3FidlBpUCtvbU10S0N1bkxlTitaVFlKc2w2UFFRZEFidHB1V3l6bW5CbkFuVytQVjV2WDVPakMrenRkTjlualhGcGhNQm1zcStoQXUzcFE2K09MUTJWNUdJTmp2cXhFQ3J2dTNZN2lzSUs2OUN0RnBycndEVVNmLytacklpYThiQ2VGVTQ0PQ==/attach/object/ea1a7fd09b0df5357a77a964f9d8af87bc82e Source: Official Huawei The mass production of Mate XT, an extraordinary master, has led domestic mobile phone manufacturers to follow suit. Although Transsion, known as the "King of Africa," took the lead in releasing the three-fold screen phone PHANTOM ULTIMATE 2 ahead of Huawei, the model is still a prototype. There is currently no public statement from Transsion on when global mass production will be achieved. Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, also pointed out that Honor has layouts in technologies such as three-fold and rollable screens. While the technical preparations have been made, the specific release time will depend on market response. It is rumored in the supply chain that Xiaomi is developing a three-fold phone, which is expected to appear in physical model or prototype form at the World Mobile Communications Conference in February 2025. In contrast to the domestic trend of developing from large foldable and small foldable screens to multi-foldable screens, Samsung is developing a rollable phone. According to South Korean media Business Post, Samsung recently applied for a patent for a rollable display for smart devices. Furthermore, according to foreign media Patently Apple, Samsung has applied for a patent for an electronic device with a rollable display in Europe, with patent number 20240281093. A rollable display can be simply understood as a "rolling shutter door" commonly seen in daily life, where part of the screen rolls inward for storage and can be pulled out for a larger screen when needed. Compared to foldable screens, rollable displays require more advanced technology support. Overseas media predict that due to the higher technical difficulty of rollable technology, commercial rollable phones may not appear until after 2027. Considering that it took 11 years from the development to the launch of Samsung Galaxy Z Fold, it implies that the launch time of Samsung's rollable phone may be even longer. Although the technical difficulty of three-fold screen phones is lower and commercialization may be higher compared to rollable phones, the disadvantages in terms of price, after-sales price, durability, universality, and scenarios may still need further discussion on whether three-fold screen phones can achieve substantial growth in the short term. 01. Mate XT Scalpers Have Speculated Nearly 100,000 Units Since June 2018, Royole Technology took the lead in releasing the world's first foldable flexible screen phone FlexPai ahead of Huawei and Samsung. In the following years, except for Apple, major mobile phone manufacturers have successively released related foldable screen models, with shipments of larger, lighter, and thinner foldable screen phones continuously increasing. ![](http://www.kdocs.cn/api/v3/office/copy/aGFIN1d3UU9KRnl0OFpBZGovdG1IdC9TSnN6cjlpaWhWMld6cHNXaUVHUWUyR3QrclRUMUcvS1h4RFRiK0l4emVtQ1k1K3RJOVZvbzN5QXFoeWt6YUtPN3hGcG5KdnpoT0tHL0dwNitBRWt6TGJBUk1lVXVJeGdjTXRYclR4REE0dVlFY3FidlBpUCtvbU10S0N1bkxlTitaVFlKc2w2UFFRZEFidHB1V3l6bW5CbkFuVytQVjV2WDVPakMrenRkTjlualhGcGhNQm1zcStoQXUzcFE2K09MUTJWNUdJTmp2cXhFQ3J2dTNZN2lzSUs2OUN0RnBycndEVVNmLytacklpYThiQ2VGVTQ0PQ==/attach/ Counterpoint data shows that in Q2 2024, global foldable smartphone shipments increased by 48% year-on-year, with Latin America reaching a growth rate of 450% due to its relatively low base. Relying on a thinner and lighter body, the Honor Magic V2 replaced Samsung to become the best-selling foldable smartphone in Western Europe that quarter. Despite the high growth, several realities of the foldable smartphone market cannot be ignored: first, the issue of hinge creases still exists. On the JD platform, many foldable smartphones from various manufacturers have received negative reviews related to hinges; second, the high cost of repairs, with the price of replacing a new screen for Huawei Pocket2 being around 3000 yuan. If the original old parts can be collected and replaced free of charge, the cost is still over 2000 yuan, which is enough for consumers to purchase a brand-new device. The development path of consumer electronics products generally involves: an increase in manufacturers' shipments → dilution of manufacturers' R&D costs, after-sales costs, and supply chain costs → price reduction, driving an increase in shipments → continued cost dilution, leading to an increase in sales. Traditional large flat-panel smartphones have grown along this path. If foldable smartphones want to follow this path, they still face many obstacles. Huang Tao, Vice President of vivo products, stated that overcoming various technological challenges requires manufacturers and suppliers to continuously push for maturity. In the current situation where the overall volume is not large enough, the overall difficulty of driving things forward is quite high. Therefore, high-priced foldable screens are unlikely to enter the mainstream market and will remain a niche market in the short term According to Trend Force's data, the global shipment volume of foldable smartphones is expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2023, accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market shipment volume. In 2024, this number is projected to increase to 17.7 million units, with the market share only slightly rising to 1.5%. When it comes to tri-fold smartphones, the challenges they face may be more prominent. On one hand, to ensure user experience, tri-fold smartphones prioritize being lightweight compared to large foldable screens and small foldable screens. For example, the prototype of the Tri-fold phone by Transsion has a folded thickness of 11mm, which is almost close to the thickness limit of tri-fold smartphones like Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6, Huawei Mate X5, and Honor Magic V3. To achieve a lightweight design, tri-fold screens need to use flexible OLED screens and hinges with stronger durability, which pose high requirements on the yield rate, cost, and profitability for supply chain manufacturers. It is reported that the Phantom Ultimate 2 prototype achieves a Z-shaped fold through two sets of hinges, with an official claim that its hinge can withstand up to 300,000 folding cycles and has a high strength of 2100MPa. Huawei's tri-fold phone consists of a dual hinge structure for both internal and external folding, with high requirements for the flexibility, durability, and hinge strength of the display. Currently, the core issue faced by hinges is the low yield rate. According to a research report by Shanxi Securities, the median yield rate of hinges in the industry is around 50%-60%, making it the biggest bottleneck in the assembly process of foldable screen panels. The difficulty of using a dual hinge structure in tri-fold smartphones is expected to be even higher. In addition to hinge issues, chips are also a major concern, highlighting the existing weaknesses in the supply chain. A research report by CITIC Construction mentions that tri-fold models represent a new form of folding, posing significant challenges to the supply chain. If the supply chain delivery capacity cannot meet the demand in the future, it may result in lower-than-expected shipments of Huawei's tri-fold models. With low yield rates and immature technology in the upstream supply chain, coupled with the need for Huawei to ensure normal profits for distributors, the estimated price of Huawei's tri-fold screen may be as high as 20,000 yuan. If we consider the screen repair cost of the Pocket2, the repair cost of a tri-fold screen will only be higher. In other words, the purchase cost plus the potential repair cost, the cost of using the Mate XT Master at least amounts to 20,000 yuan. Whether it was the hot sales of Mate60 in the market last year, causing shortages that satisfied distributors and scalpers, or the Nova Flip which sold over 45,000 units within 72 hours of its launch, with an 85% increase in sales compared to the Pocket S. Whether it's the Mate X5 series with a shipment volume more than 4.5 times higher than the X3, or the upcoming Mate XT Master being marketed as the world's first mass-produced tri-fold screen phone, scalpers are driving up the price of the Mate XT Master to sky-high levels. On Xianyu (a Chinese online marketplace), the price of the Mate XT Master has reached 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, with some sellers offering prices as high as 100,000 yuan, resulting in a premium rate of nearly 5 times Image Source: Xianyu APP The Mate XT, positioned in the ultra-high-end business market, may bear the responsibility of Huawei's push into higher-end markets. On one hand, Huawei's existing production capacity cannot meet global demand, necessitating the launch of more high-end products to continuously increase revenue and profit. On the other hand, according to some distributors, Huawei's TOC business is transitioning from selling products to managing customers. This indicates that Huawei wants to break free from the constraints of traditional stores, shifting from a stationary business model to a mobile one, and also signifies that Huawei's integrated business is undergoing a comprehensive shift towards high-end products. 02. What is the core advantage of the tri-fold phone? Undeniably, the global mass production of the Huawei MateXT tri-fold screen phone showcases the comprehensive technological strength of Huawei and its supply chain manufacturers. There are market rumors that BOE is the panel supplier for Huawei's tri-fold screen. As early as 2022, BOE announced the successful development of F-OLED flexible N-shaped folding display technology, capable of simultaneous internal and external folding. The internal fold R3 waterdrop-shaped folding has a lifespan of 200,000 times, while the external fold R5 folding has a lifespan of 100,000 times. If BOE officially supplies Huawei, the expected lifespan will further increase, indicating that the overall technological strength of domestic panel manufacturers may be able to compete with the pioneer of folding screen panels, SDC. However, whether the MateXT can shoulder the high-end task for Huawei remains to be seen. Apart from supply chain issues, Meizu's CEO Li Nan publicly criticized Huawei's tri-fold screen as being impractical at 10mm thick. Moreover, the focus on design and technology is shifting towards luxury rather than cost-effectiveness, appealing to a very small number of middle-aged men who are serious about and enjoy high-end products. This implies that there are few consumers willing to pay over 20,000 yuan for Huawei's Mate XT Image source: Weibo In addition, after the large-scale launch of the tri-fold screen mobile phone, it is urgently needed to answer several key questions in the market in order to increase manufacturers' shipments and benefit related supply chain manufacturers. That is: What is the core advantage of the tri-fold compared to existing consumer electronics? Or, what kind of differentiated experience can a tri-fold phone priced above 20,000 yuan bring to consumers? Manufacturers have exposed two forms of tri-folding. One is the tri-fold used by Richard Yu in the cabin, which expands to a size close to a tablet, with the left screen displaying a message list, and the middle and right screens seemingly displaying other split-screen browsing content. After the actual launch, there may be a completely new design and planning in terms of split-screen operation, and the overall device is expected to have more usage scenarios compared to existing foldable screen devices. The other form is the "tent mode" when the Transsion Phantom Ultimate 2 is unfolded, where users can operate different pages through touch pens. Although the overall operation is similar to a tablet, the other screen remains idle Image Source: Official website of Transsion Consumer Zhang Nan (pseudonym) from Fuyang, Anhui, told DoNews that he personally believes that tri-fold screens are somewhat redundant. Compared to traditional flat phones, they have no advantages in terms of repair costs, portability, or price. Compared to tablets, the gaming graphics are not as good as tablets, and the overall user experience is not as good as tablets. Compared to business laptops, both he and his colleagues are used to either Apple or Microsoft operating systems, and the price is higher than high-configured business laptops. Compared to large foldable screens, he does not need them for his daily business and social interactions. If you simply want to satisfy entertainment needs and pursue a large screen experience, why not just buy a large TV or projector directly? Hu Yang (pseudonym), a mobile phone salesperson from Zhoukou, Henan, who shares the same feelings as Zhang Nan, mentioned that many customers he deals with on a daily basis are more concerned about phone configurations and lagging issues, with limited focus on the screen. Consumers primarily use their phones for gaming, payments, short videos, and social media, and some consumers adjust based on their profession and personal habits. The problem with current smartphones is not that they lack functionality, but that they are severely excessive. As Hu Yang mentioned, since 2024, apart from Apple, major smartphone manufacturers have been launching AI phones one after another. In order to meet regulatory requirements, domestic phone manufacturers are seeking collaborations with overseas large-scale models, while overseas phone manufacturers are seeking collaborations with domestic large-scale model manufacturers. However, according to a report by Canalys, consumers currently interested in AI phones can be divided into four categories: technology enthusiasts, value maximizers, pragmatists, and skeptics. Among them, pragmatists account for the largest proportion at 67.9%, but currently, the actual buyers of AI phones on the market are technology enthusiasts. It is estimated that by 2025 or 2026, value maximizers and pragmatists will start purchasing AI phones, and the related supply chain will also target this group in advance. As a result, AI phones currently contribute limited shipment volumes to manufacturers. Canalys data shows that in Q2 2024, global smartphone shipments only increased by 5% year-on-year, with most of the growth coming from markets in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. If manufacturers continue to lower the prices of AI phones to offset the high costs of developing large models, this means that tri-fold screen phones may find it difficult to use AI as a selling point. Furthermore, as the consumer market pays more attention to comprehensive value for money, whether the Mate XT Extraordinary Master can replicate the sales myth of Mate60, Nova Flip, and Mate X5 also faces challenges. Although the shortage of Mate60 provided a basis for the early sales boom of Pura 70, on the day of Pura 70's sale, the real-time search heat on Meituan Flash Purchase increased by over 3600%. Scalpers even marked up by 2000 yuan, and some popular colors were out of stock. However, when compared to other phones in the same price range, Pura 70's overall value for money advantage is slightly lacking. Therefore, the popularity of Pura 70 did not last long, and since July, it has been discounted multiple times With the increasing number of future manufacturers releasing tri-fold screen smartphones, what exactly is the differentiated selling point that can be recognized by consumers? This is worth deep consideration by all manufacturers. Image Source: Slow Buy APP 03. Traditional flat-panel phones still have multiple issues to be resolved As smartphone manufacturers continue to develop foldable, small foldable, and tri-foldable phones, traditional flat-panel phones still face many challenges if they want to achieve significant growth. Firstly, there is the battery life issue. Zhang Wei (pseudonym), a long-time freight driver, told us that during the entire process of running a truck, the navigation function needs to be open, requiring high battery life for the phone. Although he has purchased flagship phones from many manufacturers in recent years, the overall battery life is not satisfactory. After using navigation for three to four hours, the battery quickly drops from 80% to 20%. What's even worse is that in the hot summer, smartphones not only run slowly but sometimes cannot even be charged. It is not just Android phones; Apple phones also face criticism from many users for slow performance in winter and difficulty charging. Secondly, there is the issue of lag in traditional flat-panel phones. Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that in July this year, Apple's market share in China has dropped to single digits, while the overall market share of Android phone manufacturers has reached 90%. However, Rong Qiang (pseudonym), a salesperson at an Apple store in Fuyang, Anhui, told us that many customers they encounter on a daily basis come for the smoother and lag-free Apple operating system compared to Android phones. Many Apple users are either not used to the Android operating system or switch to Apple after using an Android phone for a while due to lagging issues. Some Apple users who are highly concerned about value for money even inquire about the availability of second-hand Apple phones in the store. As Rong Qiang mentioned, whether it's complaints about lagging in Android phones on Black Cat Complaints, or the numerous negative reviews from many manufacturers on JD.com mentioning lagging issues, or the relatively high proportion of second-hand Apple phones on Zhuanzhuan, all indicate the need for continuous resolution and optimization of lagging issues in current Android phones Source: Black Cat Complaints Source: Black Cat Complaints Thirdly, consumers are paying close attention to the issue of prices. With the increasingly fierce price war between JD.com and Tmall, it is continuously impacting the pricing system of mobile phone manufacturers. For example, during this year's 618 shopping festival, starting from midnight on May 20th, JD.com successively took down popular products from Redmi Turbo3 and K series for nearly 5 hours In addition, several mobile phone brands such as OPPO, vivo, iQOO, OnePlus, and Honor have also been discounted by JD.com. The incident originated from JD.com and Tmall adopting the same pricing strategy. However, in order to expand its 3C market share, Tmall offered an additional discount of 100 yuan on top of existing discounts for 88VIP members. In order to compete with Tmall, and under the business focus emphasized by Liu Qiangdong on improving efficiency, reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and focusing on pragmatism, JD.com required mobile phone manufacturers to bear the subsidy costs. As a result of the negotiations between the two parties, some models of mobile phones were temporarily delisted. However, consumers are not concerned about the negotiations between JD.com, Tmall, and the brands, and the price reduction still triggered dissatisfaction among a large number of consumers. On the Hei Mao complaint platform, there were over 4,000 complaints related to mobile phone price reductions, covering multiple mobile phone brands. In other words, how to achieve a balance among channels, profits, and consumer interests is also one of the problems faced by the brands. Image Source: Hei Mao Complaints Not only in the domestic market, but India is also considered one of the important overseas growth markets. Despite the high temperatures and price increases causing a slowdown in demand in the Indian mobile phone market, Counterpoint data shows that in the first half of 2024, the shipment volume of mobile phones in India increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 69 million units. Although the average selling price has increased, leading to a sustained stagnation in consumer demand, the shipment volume of smartphones in India from January to June 2024 still reached a year-on-year growth rate. Smaller long-tail brands under vivo such as iQOO, Motorola, Nothing, and independent brands under Xiaomi like Poco have become the main driving force behind the continuous growth in India's year-on-year growth rate for 4 consecutive quarters Whether it is Vivo violating some visa regulations in India and claiming to have embezzled $13 billion from India, or India previously freezing Xiaomi's assets exceeding $600 million, or the Indian government only allowing domestic registered operators to bid for GPU procurement, all indicate that domestic mobile phone manufacturers in India still need to overcome many obstacles in order to truly survive, establish themselves, and achieve greater growth. There is nothing wrong with manufacturers rolling out technology, and the process of mutual rolling can also lower product prices and enhance domestic technological capabilities. However, if manufacturers want to drive explosive sales through foldable screens, there may still be many challenges to overcome