CICC: Trade Recession or Trade Rate Cut?

CICC analysis believes that regardless of whether the US economy is in recession, the timing of the Fed rate cut may be brought forward and the magnitude increased. If unwilling to participate in recession trades, rate cuts are an effective hedge against recession risks. In response to the US economic situation, over 70 economic indicators are grouped for analysis, with core indicators such as personal consumption and fixed assets as the main judgment basis, forming a complete tracking framework. The results show that core consumption indicators are healthy, while investment and real estate indicators have cooled down, and employment and credit indicators have significantly cooled down