Key Macro Charts: Strong Correlated Indicators for Gold Price in the New Phase (2024/9/24)

Gold Buying Demand In August, India's gold imports hit a record high, surpassing $10 billion. The World Gold Council estimates that the country imported 140 tons of gold, three times the total in July. From 2024 to date, India's gold imports have increased by 30%. Focus on the Australian Dollar Analyst: Despite widespread market skepticism, it can be seen from the chart below that the Australian dollar has broken through long-term resistance levels. Given its close connection to the commodity market, this may indicate that investors' confidence in capital allocation to resource-driven economies is strengthening. I believe that these profound macro changes may usher in an era vastly different from the past decade, especially for markets that will benefit from rising commodity prices. U.S. Treasury Yields Analyst: Investors need to focus on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently testing near the 3.765% resistance level, if it closes above 3.765%, it may continue to rise to 3.85%. Despite remarks from Goolsbee, Bostic, and Kashkari hinting at a possible 50 basis point cut, yields remained stable that day. This is not just about rate cuts: PMI data shows that due to rising production costs, prices of goods and services are increasing. So ironically, while the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates in the U.S. may still rise. Highly Correlated Indicators for Gold Prices Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was a very close relationship between gold and ETF holdings (green area in the chart below). However, since then, the correlation between the two has completely disappeared, replaced by a strong correlation between gold prices and another set of data, as shown in the red area in the chart. Gold buying demand comes not only from hedge funds, but the biggest driver is central banks, especially China's purchases, which have led to the decoupling of the physical gold market from ETFs. While the buying activities of many central banks are kept confidential, hedge funds serve as an indicator of central bank purchasing dynamics due to their access to "non-public" central bank information. Therefore, the spot gold price is now directly correlated with the indicator in the chart below. ------- The full text of the "Must-See Macro Charts" series is exclusively updated on the Planet, where researcher Lexie selects thousands of "divine charts" shared by Wall Street giants daily. From investment banking giants to economic legends, and to legendary figures in the fund industry, everyone is watching. There is no analysis more reliable than a data chart. Scan the code to unlock all the chart content of this issue and enjoy one year of exclusive rights to macro news on the Planet N/A