Will US stocks continue to rise in the fourth quarter? The answer lies in historical data
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In 2024, the U.S. stock market has shown strong performance in the first nine months. Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 Index rises by more than 20% in the first nine months, the fourth quarter usually continues to climb. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.1% increase in this scenario, with a median return of 4.1%. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices also exhibit similar trends. Despite the recent weak performance in the stock market, if the S&P 500 maintains a 20% increase, 2024 will be the first consecutive two years of positive growth since 1998
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