The bull market in the U.S. stock market is about to celebrate its two-year anniversary, marking the latest milestone of this round of rebound. Apart from the most optimistic investors on Wall Street, this rebound has exceeded the expectations of almost everyone.
According to the latest information from the Wisdom Financial APP, since the S&amp;P 500 index hit a closing low of 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, the index has risen by more than 60%. This increase far surpasses the expectations of many financial professionals, forcing Wall Street institutions to raise their year-end targets multiple times.
Data shows that despite some fluctuations in the upward trajectory over the past three months, the overall bull market shows no signs of slowing down. According to FactSet data, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the &#34;Wall Street Fear Index,&#34; briefly reached its highest intraday level since March 2020 during the global market plunge on August 5. However, this fear quickly dissipated, and the stock market rebounded rapidly. A similar decline occurred in the first week of September, but this pullback also attracted demand from investors looking to buy at lower levels.
Subsequently, the S&amp;P 500 index has shown strong performance in the first three quarters of this year, achieving its best performance since the late 1990s. If the current upward trend can be maintained until the end of the year, the S&amp;P 500 index will see a consecutive annual increase of over 20% for the first time since 1998.
However, there have been increasing potential risks in the market recently. The current valuation of the U.S. stock market is relatively high compared to historical levels, second only to the peak at the end of 2021. In addition, geopolitical risks have resurfaced, with the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating again, driving up oil prices and making stock market investors nervous.
With the arrival of the third-quarter earnings season, investors will closely watch the financial reports of giant companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US, GOOG.US), hoping to find clues as to when these companies' massive investments will pay off. Subsequently, NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) financial report will also be closely watched. NVIDIA showed strong performance in the previous earnings report in August but still failed to boost the stock price.
Furthermore, the U.S. election on November 5 has led many traders to purchase hedging tools to guard against potential volatility that the election results may bring, especially in cases where the results may be disputed.
Due to these uncertainties, millions of investors worldwide are seeking guidance on the next market trend.
A group of analysts from Ned Davis Research have conducted in-depth research on the performance of bull markets when they reach their two-year mark. Data shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 12 bull markets that have lasted at least two years. If this bull market can continue until this weekend, it will be the 13th time.
Among them, 7 bull markets successfully entered the third year, indicating favorable odds for the continuation of the current bull market. According to Ned Davis' statistics, the median increase of the past 12 bull markets at the two-year mark is 54.4%, which means that the increase over the past two years is not particularly significant compared to historical data.
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However, the future trend is even more difficult to predict. According to the analysis by the Ned Davis team, bull markets typically achieve a median increase of 13.3% in the third year, but bull markets that fail to continue experience a 5.9% retracement.
It is worth noting that bull markets do not end because of &#34;aging.&#34; Ned Davis' analysis shows that each bull market's end is triggered by some kind of catalyst. Economic recession is the most common reason, leading to its end in the third year in three different bull markets. The fourth exception occurred in October 1966 when the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to combat inflation, thus ending the bull market.
The fifth exception was the bull market that began in March 2009, when the stock market decline was caused by Standard &amp; Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the global panic triggered by the European sovereign debt crisis.
The Ned Davis team believes that as long as the following three conditions are met, the current bull market is likely to enter its third year.
First, the downward trend in inflation that began at the end of 2022 must continue. If investors see clear signs of inflation accelerating again, it could trigger market volatility. Second, the Federal Reserve must successfully achieve a &#34;soft landing&#34; for the U.S. economy, meaning controlling inflation within the target range of 2% while maintaining slightly slower but still positive growth. If the economy enters a recession, the stock market could plummet. However, the Ned Davis economic team believes there is currently not much reason to worry about this.
Third, the largest U.S. companies must continue to maintain profit growth. Wall Street expects profit growth for the &#34;Big Seven&#34; companies benefiting from artificial intelligence to start slowing down later this year. Other companies will need to fill this gap, and while forecasts indicate this is likely to happen, forecasts always have uncertainties, and the final outcome will depend on the economic performance in the coming year.
On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1.1%, the S&amp;P 500 index and the Dow falling nearly 1%

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The bull market in the US stock market is about to celebrate its two-year anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising by over 60% since October 2022. Despite challenges such as high valuations and geopolitical risks, the overall bull market shows little sign of slowing down. Investors are focusing on the upcoming earnings season, especially the performance of Microsoft, Alphabet, and NVIDIA. Meanwhile, concerns about market volatility have been raised due to the US election on November 5th

- The U.S. stock market is approaching its two-year bull market anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising over 60% since its low in October 2022.  
- Despite recent volatility and potential risks, including high valuations and geopolitical tensions, analysts suggest the bull market could continue into its third year if inflation trends downward and corporate earnings remain strong.  
- Historical data indicates that while bull markets typically see gains in their third year, they can also face significant pullbacks if economic conditions worsen.

There is almost no sign of slowing down, the bull market in US stocks will celebrate its two-year anniversary!