Jibang Consulting: HBM5 20hi's future products will adopt Hybrid Bonding technology, potentially triggering a business model revolution

According to the information obtained from the Wise Finance APP, TrendForce has stated in a publication that HBM products have become the focus of the DRAM industry, making advanced packaging technologies such as Hybrid Bonding highly anticipated. Based on the latest research, the three major HBM manufacturers are considering whether to adopt Hybrid Bonding in HBM4 16hi and have already confirmed the use of this technology in the HBM5 20hi generation. TrendForce pointed out that the adoption of Hybrid Bonding may lead to changes in the commercial model of HBM. Compared to the widely used Micro Bump stacking technology, Hybrid Bonding, which does not require bumps, can accommodate more stacking layers and thicker grain thickness to improve warping issues. Chips using Hybrid Bonding have faster transmission speeds and better heat dissipation. TrendForce mentioned that the three major manufacturers have decided to continue using the Advanced MR-MUF and TC-NCF stacking architecture in the HBM3e 12hi and HBM4 12hi generations. For the HBM4 16hi and HBM4e 16hi generations, as Hybrid Bonding does not have significant advantages over Micro Bump, it is still uncertain which technology will be favored. If manufacturers decide to adopt Hybrid Bonding, the main reason would be to go through the learning curve of new stacking technologies early on to ensure smooth mass production of HBM4e and HBM5. Considering stacking height restrictions, IO density, heat dissipation requirements, the three major players have confirmed the use of Hybrid Bonding in the HBM5 20hi generation. However, adopting Hybrid Bonding comes with multiple challenges. For instance, investing in new equipment for new stacking technologies will displace the demand for Micro Bump and no longer enjoy the accumulated technological advantages. Challenges such as particle control with Hybrid Bonding need to be overcome, which will increase the unit investment amount. Additionally, since Hybrid Bonding requires Wafer to Wafer stacking, if the front-end production yield is too low, the overall production yield will not be economically beneficial. TrendForce also pointed out that the adoption of Hybrid Bonding may lead to changes in the commercial model of HBM. Stacking in Wafer to Wafer mode requires ensuring that the grain sizes of the HBM base die and memory die are completely consistent; the design of the former is led by GPU/ASIC companies. Therefore, TSMC, which provides both base die and GPU/ASIC foundry services, may bear the heavy responsibility of stacking the base die and memory die If this model is followed for development, it is expected to impact the industry position of HBM manufacturers in base die design, base die stacking with memory die, and overall HBM order acquisition and other commercial aspects