The Renminbi has appreciated again.Not only the Renminbi, but also the Japanese Yen and Euro have shown strong trends in recent days. However, the US data released on Wednesday and Thursday was quite good, yet the US Dollar Index not only failed to rise but even fell. Why is that?Profit-taking from Trump trades has emerged.From the perspective of win rates, as the countdown to the election begins, the verbal battles between the two parties are becoming increasingly intense, and uncertainties are rising. Trump's win rate has slightly adjusted, prompting the first wave of profit-taking from Trump trades.Figure 1 Trump's win rate and the US Dollar Index both adjusted<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b42dc027-b5a1-4658-9304-abff0f627b79.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/b42dc027-b5a1-4658-9304-abff0f627b79.png"/>In terms of timing, the October non-farm payroll data to be released tonight is expected by many in the market to be significantly low due to the impact of hurricanes and strikes (e.g., JP predicts only 100,000 jobs for October), which would suppress the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields, moving in the opposite direction of Trump trades. Therefore, taking profits early and observing from the sidelines is a good choice.Additionally, the Bank of Japan also provided some support yesterday. Although there was no interest rate hike in October, Governor Kazuo Ueda's statements at the press conference indicated that the Bank of Japan's decisions are temporarily unaffected by domestic political turmoil (they will still consider raising rates later), leading to a rapid appreciation of the Yen from 153 to 152, which also brought positive sentiment to the Renminbi and other non-USD currencies.Figure 2 USDJPY technicals seem to have peaked<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a4573e4c-2603-440d-8651-1c73f0a02305.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a4573e4c-2603-440d-8651-1c73f0a02305.jpeg"/>In the performance of a basket of products, the signs of &#34;profit-taking from Trump trades&#34; are also spreading. In addition to the decline of the US Dollar Index and the strengthening of the Euro, Renminbi, and Yen, gold has also shown a significant decline, while emerging market currencies like the Korean Won and Mexican Peso have appreciated to varying degrees.Figure 3 Gold decline and Korean Won appreciation<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5fb08fd1-a77f-49ca-aa2e-14d95d1ddaff.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5fb08fd1-a77f-49ca-aa2e-14d95d1ddaff.jpeg"/>Summary for quick reference:<ul><li>Ahead of the non-farm payrolls, Trump traders have begun to take profits early, resulting in the weakness of the US Dollar Index in the past two days.</li><li>Regarding the Renminbi, the view remains that it will fluctuate around the 7.12 range before the election.</li></ul>Waiting for fresh election results...Author: Zhang Haoyu, Source: Good Morning Forex, Original Title: &#34;Have Those Betting on Trump Left First?&#34;

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Analysis suggests that ahead of the non-farm payrolls, Trump traders took early profits, leading to a weakening of the U.S. dollar index, while the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and euro strengthened. Despite good U.S. data, the dollar index failed to rise and instead fell due to a pullback in Trump's winning probability. The market expects that the October non-farm payroll data may be on the lower side, which could further pressure the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. The Bank of Japan's statements also boosted the appreciation of the yen, driving other non-U.S. currencies stronger. In summary: ahead of the non-farm payrolls, Trump traders took early profits, resulting in a weak dollar index, while the Chinese yuan maintained fluctuations

- The Chinese yuan has appreciated recently, alongside the yen and euro, despite positive U.S. economic data.  
- The decline in the U.S. dollar index is attributed to profit-taking by traders anticipating changes in Trump's election odds, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to be weak.  
- The Bank of Japan's recent statements have also positively influenced the yen, contributing to a broader strengthening of non-U.S. currencies.

Did those who went long on Trump leave first?