CICC: A Guide to Watching and Trading the U.S. Election
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CICC analyzes the U.S. election and believes that an overall "contrarian strategy" has a better chance of success, but "a complete Republican victory" will take time. Trump is leading in national polls, but the margin is narrowing, especially in swing states. The betting market also shows that Trump's odds advantage is weakening. The proportion of early voting and mail-in ballots is expected to reach 65%
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