Counterpoint Research: Global smartphone shipments in the third quarter increased by 2% year-on-year, reaching 307 million units

According to the Counterpoint Research global Q3 market tracking report on smartphones, global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increased by 2% year-on-year, reaching 307 million units. Global smartphone revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, with an average selling price increase of 7%, both revenue and average selling price hitting record highs. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of growth for the global smartphone market. Although the smartphone market has seen strong year-on-year growth over the past few quarters, the main reasons are the recovery of the macroeconomic situation and consumer demand. In commenting on the performance of the smartphone market in various regions during Q3, senior analyst Prachir Singh stated: "The global macroeconomic crisis is basically over, and as past benchmarks normalize, the previously observed wave of recovery has begun to slow down. Some markets, such as Latin America, Japan, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia, continued to recover in Q3, achieving year-on-year growth. However, due to the slowdown in economic recovery, shipments in Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa declined year-on-year, with ongoing conflicts in these regions continuing to suppress consumer confidence." In the largest global markets, shipments in the United States declined year-on-year due to persistently low replacement rates affecting the market. Indian mobile brand manufacturers began stocking up in various sales channels slightly earlier than usual for the holiday season, boosting year-on-year growth. With the continuous improvement of the economy and consumer demand, China's shipments also saw year-on-year growth in Q3, with Huawei's recovery being a driving factor. Although the growth in shipments has slowed in recent quarters, global smartphone revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2024, increasing by 10% year-on-year, reaching a record high for Q3. Apple leads the market in smartphone revenue, capturing 43% of the share and setting historical records for Q3 revenue, shipments, and average selling price. Regarding Apple's (AAPL.US) performance, research director Jeff Fieldhack stated: "Apple's success in Q3 is mainly due to the earlier launch of the iPhone 16 series, an increasingly Pro-oriented product mix, and ongoing expansion into non-core markets. Nevertheless, caution should be exercised, as the performance of the iPhone 16 series has been mixed across regions, with sales in major markets like the U.S. declining year-on-year compared to the 15 series. However, the large user base of iOS devices from three to four years ago may help maintain stable sales for the iPhone 16 in the coming quarters, especially with the continuous rollout of Apple Intelligence features." Samsung's revenue and shipments declined by 2% year-on-year, mainly due to declines in India and Latin America. Xiaomi's (01810) revenue growth outpaced its shipment growth, primarily due to an increased proportion of high-end devices centered around the Xiaomi 14 series In August, Xiaomi briefly became the world's second-largest in sales. Vivo was the fastest-growing among the top five smartphone brands, ranking as the number one smartphone brand in terms of shipments in both China and India in the third quarter. OPPO's shipments and revenue declined year-on-year in the third quarter. The brand's global sales rebounded to year-on-year growth in September, with Latin America and "Other Asia-Pacific" leading the way. Markets outside the top five smartphone brands recorded strong double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, significantly outpacing shipment growth in the third quarter. Android brands such as Huawei, Google, and Motorola drove growth for other brands, with Motorola achieving its highest quarterly shipments since entering the smartphone era. As most major brands achieved strong revenue growth, the net share of the segment priced at ≥$400 increased by 2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024. The ongoing trend of premiumization across various regions is prompting smartphone brands to reconsider their high-end product portfolios and device financing strategies. The premiumization trend is expected to continue in the coming years, with the global average selling price of smartphones projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3% from 2023 to 2028. Tarun Pathak, Director of Research at Analyst Perspectives, commented on the smartphone outlook: "The global smartphone market has matured, and shipments are expected to remain stable in the coming years. Emerging markets such as India, the Middle East and Africa, and Southeast Asia may drive growth. With the continued premiumization trend across various markets, smartphone revenue is expected to continue growing through 2028. As adoption rates rise, new technologies such as GenAI and foldable phones may also drive average selling price increases. By 2028, it is expected that more than half of the smartphones shipped will have GenAI capabilities, as broader use cases continue to emerge, this feature will become prevalent across different price ranges."