12 investment banks look ahead to the Federal Reserve: Focus on how Powell communicates with the market after Trump's victory

Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement will not have significant modifications or provide much guidance on future plans. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates until at least December. It will also cut rates four times in the first half of 2025 to 3.25-3.5%. Danske: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If there are unexpected data/political developments, the Federal Reserve is more likely to change its forward guidance rather than its interest rate decisions. It still believes that there will be a 25 basis point cut at each meeting until June next year. Barclays: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement may mention that the committee still believes the risks of inflation moving towards 2% are roughly balanced to achieve employment and inflation targets. Powell will signal further rate cuts, but without explicit guidance. JP Morgan: Following Trump's victory, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, and then quarterly cuts until rates reach 3.5% after the December policy meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will avoid making strong statements about the future policy path. Standard Chartered: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, and surprises are unlikely. The FOMC may lean hawkish on future rate cuts, especially if Trump wins the election. Powell is expected not to discuss policy from a political perspective. Bank of America: The weakness of the October non-farm data is sufficient for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both November and December. Powell may emphasize the robustness of the economy and the return to inflation targets. Trump's return to the White House may make the Federal Reserve more cautious in the future. Mitsubishi UFJ: The baseline expectation is a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve due to weak non-farm data, as the FOMC does not want to signal a change in policy stance, and it will also indicate that election trends do not affect its views. The market will consolidate without significant fluctuations. TD Securities: After Trump's victory, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in November, December, and January, pausing cuts in March. Next year, it will cut rates to 3.5% in a pattern of cuts—pauses—cuts, reaching a neutral rate of 3.0% in the first half of 2026. Rabobank: Regardless of the election outcome, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and in December. The Federal Reserve's attitude towards inflation is more accommodative, and it will focus more on the labor market, trying to ensure a soft landing for the economy. Deutsche Bank: The U.S. election will not affect the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point cut this week and another 25 basis point cut in December, although the future path may be more contentious. Powell is unlikely to provide forward guidance on future policy paths. Morgan Stanley: The Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both November and December, with the statement raising its assessment of economic growth and continuing to acknowledge progress on inflation. Powell is not expected to commit to the scale or pace of future rate cuts, as decisions will depend on data. Nordea Bank: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both November and December, and the impact of Trump's policies on inflation will take some time to manifest. There may be another 25 basis point rate cut in March next year, although there is also a significant possibility that there will be no rate cuts throughout the year.