Top trader Vitol: Global oil demand will peak within ten years, and the metal business is the future

With the advancement of the global energy transition, Vitol, the world's largest independent energy trader, is actively considering entering the metals market. On Thursday, Vitol's CEO Russell Hardy stated at the Financial Times Commodities Summit held in Singapore: “ Global oil demand is expected to peak within the next decade and will eventually decline. In contrast, the metals business will experience significant growth during the electrification phase.” Hardy mentioned that Vitol is particularly interested in the three major metal markets: steel, iron ore, copper, and aluminum. In August of this year, Vitol announced the acquisition of energy trader Noble Resources; in April, the company poached two metal traders from Mercuria. In recent years, energy trading giants like Gunvor and Mercuria have been actively expanding into the metals sector to seize opportunities brought by the clean energy transition. Key minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium play crucial roles in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, electric vehicles, power grids, and solar panels, which are important components driving the energy transition ecosystem. It is widely expected that copper demand will experience exponential growth and may face shortages. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, existing mines and projects under construction will only meet 80% of copper demand. Hardy stated that developing the metals business to a scale comparable to the energy business will be a long and challenging process. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the company has profited significantly from Europe's energy crisis. He also mentioned that the metals market is highly competitive, and trading companies must find their own "advantages" and "pathways." However, he also stated that he would not be "in a hurry to achieve results": “This is a ten-year goal, and I will not put pressure on myself to reach a specific level in three or five years.” Hardy emphasized that oil and gas remain the company's "truly important" business sectors.