Over $2.8 billion bet that Bitcoin will break through the $90,000 mark?

Bitcoin broke through $81,000 on Monday, setting a new historical high, with futures premiums soaring, clearly indicating that investors believe the world's largest cryptocurrency is poised for greater gains in the context of Trump winning the U.S. election. At the popular derivatives exchange Deribit, the open interest betting on Bitcoin prices exceeding $90,000 has increased to over $2.8 billion. The exchange is one of the few crypto-native platforms that offer futures trading. Deribit covers a significant portion of the offshore options market. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, told CNBC, “The options market is largely leaning towards Bitcoin maintaining its positive momentum. The trading premium for call options is higher than that for put options, and the open contracts for out-of-the-money call options have increased.” Call options give the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset at a specific price within a designated time. Buying call options is a bet that the asset's price will rise. Purchasing put options is a bet that the asset's price will fall. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers Bitcoin futures contracts, which are a popular way for U.S. institutions to bet on the future price of Bitcoin. Velde told CNBC that last Friday, the average premiums for Ethereum and Bitcoin futures on the CME were 14.5% and 14%, respectively. In contrast, he said these premiums were 7% before the election and had hovered just below 10% for most of the past six months. “The recent surge in futures premiums is a significant divergence, highlighting the recent inflow of bullish capital,” he added, noting that after the election became clearer, yields stabilized at double digits more or less. Velde stated, “In addition to the increase in leverage, we are also seeing the first meaningful example of rising offshore derivatives yields, indicating that this trend is being led by steadfast risk-takers preparing for further gains.” The early stages of Bitcoin's rise coincided with a significant increase in open contracts for perpetual swaps, which allow buyers to speculate on price movements without a set expiration date. However, Velde noted that liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is typically worse on weekends than on weekdays, as CME futures and ETFs are not open for trading, so once these markets reopen, the trends often overreact and pull back significantly. President-elect Trump promised during his campaign to make the U.S. the “cryptocurrency capital of the world.” His commitments to the cryptocurrency industry include using over $16 billion in Bitcoin accumulated by the U.S. government through asset seizures to establish a national cryptocurrency reserve, as well as significantly lowering interest rates. Easing monetary policy typically coincides with surges in cryptocurrency prices, as it makes borrowing cheaper. Against the backdrop of Trump's victory and the Federal Reserve's unanimous vote to lower the benchmark interest rate again, cryptocurrencies surged broadly over the weekend. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, rising 30% over the past seven days. Solana's market capitalization surpassed $100 billion last Sunday The total market value of all spot Bitcoin ETFs now exceeds $80 billion, having increased by $2.3 billion over the past three trading days. In the fintech sector, companies related to cryptocurrencies are performing at the forefront, as they funded Trump’s campaign victory. Coinbase's stock price rose 48% last week, marking its strongest performance since January 2023. Coinbase is one of the largest corporate donors in this election cycle, having donated over $75 million to the political action committee Fairshake, which represents cryptocurrency interests, and its affiliated political action committee. It also plans to provide $25 million to super political action committees supporting cryptocurrency in the 2026 midterm elections. Trump has vowed to remove Gary Gensler, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which could be a positive sign for companies like Coinbase that will be battling the regulators in court over alleged securities violations. “Last Tuesday night was undoubtedly a significant night for cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency voters,” said Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal in an interview. “We will have the most pro-cryptocurrency Congress in history, and Coinbase played a role in all of this.” Robinhood, which allows users to buy and sell various digital currencies, rose 27% last week. The online brokerage received a Wells Notice from the SEC in May, which typically occurs before formal charges are made. Robinhood's General Manager of Crypto told CNBC that Robinhood aims to operate within the government's framework. “If you think about cryptocurrency, it’s evolving very quickly. It’s complex, and it’s built by engineers for engineers,” said Johann Kerbrat, Vice President and General Manager of Crypto at Robinhood. “We want to help policymakers understand this and assist them in providing the right protections for customers.”