Macro Must-See Chart: Will This Gold Sell-Off Be Shorter Than in 2016? (2024/11/12)

Oil Market Fundamentals vs Institutional Expectations Analyst: In the context of pessimism surrounding the crude oil market and multiple institutions updating their forecasts this week, let's review: many bearish predictions this year have not materialized. The IEA had predicted a supply surplus of about 1.6 million barrels per day this year. What is the reality? Global oil inventories have actually decreased by 71 million barrels. Upgraded Expectations for U.S. Stocks Yardeni Research: We are raising our year-end target for the S&P 500 index as follows: 6,100 points for 2024, 7,000 points for 2025, and 8,000 points for 2026. Our new target is to reach 10,000 points by the end of this decade, which means a 66.6% increase from the current level of 6,000 points over the next five years. The Dollar Index at a Crossroads Analyst: The dollar index futures have returned to the upper boundary of a 1.5-year wedge pattern. This is a critical point, either a breakout or a pullback. Elections vs Foreign Exchange Analyst: The chart below shows the price trends of the Euro (top left), Mexican Peso (top right), Japanese Yen (bottom left), and Renminbi (bottom right) since last week's U.S. elections (in blue), compared to the same period in 2016 (in black). The Mexican Peso is the biggest anomaly, and it has significant room for further decline. The Bottom of Gold Analyst: After Trump won the election in early November 2016, gold prices fell sharply for several weeks until mid-December (refer to the leftmost part of the chart). Subsequently, gold experienced a significant upward trend in 2017. It is reported that Western speculators (leveraged hedge funds and commodity futures traders) are attempting to replicate the sell-off seen at the end of 2016, aggressively closing long gold futures positions and actively shorting. However, given that Eastern buyers are stepping in (potentially providing price support again), and the magnitude of this decline is considerable, my intuition is that the duration of this sell-off... ------- The "Must-See Macroeconomic Charts" series is updated daily exclusively on the Insider Planet, with researcher Lexie curating "must-see" charts shared by Wall Street giants for you every day. **Scan the code to unlock all content for this issue (at least 15 charts per issue), enjoy one year of Insider Planet benefits, and access a series of macro strategy analyses, professional trader insights, key data forecasts, and more. **_