Whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December is still in a state of uncertainty

According to a report by Hong Kong's Wind Information, recently, Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari stated that a rate cut in December is a reasonable consideration. According to CME's "FedWatch" data on November 26, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate until December is 44.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 55.9%. Kashkari is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Expectations for a rate cut have weakened; a survey conducted from November 12 to 20 showed that nearly 90% of economists expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but there were also 12 economists who expected rates to remain unchanged, and market pricing now shows that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is less than 60%. Although progress in reducing inflation has slowed, Kashkari remains somewhat confident that inflation will continue to decline slowly, and the labor market remains strong. In the context of inflation gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target while the labor market remains stable, a moderate rate cut would help further consolidate economic growth without triggering a significant risk of inflation rebound. Kashkari believes that the constraints of policy on the economy may not be as strict as previously thought, which means there is some room to further stimulate the economy through rate cuts without causing the economy to overheat or inflation to spiral out of control. Uncertainties affecting the December rate cut decision have recently shown some resilience in economic data, such as relatively stable performance in the consumer market, which has led the market to question the necessity and urgency of a rate cut, resulting in weakened expectations for the magnitude of future rate cuts