JP Morgan expects the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to be 4.25% by the end of 2025

A team of strategists from JP Morgan, including Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Liam Wash, wrote in a report that they expect the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to decline slightly for most of next year, with little change from current levels by the end of 2025. The bank anticipates that as the U.S. economic growth slows slightly to around 2%, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another 100 basis points before the end of 2025, the performance of short-term U.S. Treasuries will outperform long-term ones next year. They predict that the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond will close at 3.75% by the end of next year; in contrast, it reported 4.28% on Tuesday. They forecast that the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond will fall to 4.10% by the end of the third quarter, then rebound to 4.25% by next year