In the post-COVID era, the sensitivity of the U.S. stock market to economic data is extremely high, experiencing significant fluctuations in response to both positive and negative surprises. However, with Trump's election, this situation may soon change, as his administration will bring a high degree of uncertainty, making his new government's policies potentially more important than the macroeconomic data that dominate Wall Street activities and attract attention.
On Friday, this assertion will face its first &#34;test&#34; — the November non-farm payroll report will be released that day. In this regard, Bank of America advises market participants to &#34;exercise caution&#34; when assessing the data due to the presence of noise.
Ohsung Kwon, a strategist for equities and quantitative strategies at Bank of America, stated in a report on Tuesday, &#34;In the post-pandemic era, the market's reaction to macro data has never been so intense. Why? This may be the result of high volatility, high forecasting difficulty, and the Federal Reserve's 'data-dependent' stance, but will the situation change if tariffs and unexpected policy announcements become the main macro drivers of stock volatility?&#34;
He added that Trump has indicated plans to implement a tougher and broader tariff policy than during his first term. For example, using tariffs to compel Canada and Mexico to control the influx of immigrants into the U.S., not just for economic reasons.
From the options market perspective, traders expect the non-farm payroll data to lead to a bidirectional reaction in the stock market of about 0.86 percentage points, which Kwon referred to as &#34;moderate&#34; and the lowest level since July. He said, &#34;We are keeping an eye on this.&#34;
Similar to the October report, Bank of America expects noise in the non-farm payroll report data due to storms in the Southeast and the Boeing strike. The company anticipates that the U.S. will add over 240,000 jobs in November, exceeding market consensus, with 100,000 of those new jobs resulting from the easing of storm and strike impacts. In contrast to Bank of America's forecast, the market predicts that the U.S. will add 195,000 jobs in November, compared to 12,000 in October.
In this regard, Bank of America warns that given the significant revisions to previous non-farm payroll numbers, they wrote, &#34;We recommend a cautious stance on the initially released data and to place more trust in the data after collecting more information and after the first and second revisions.&#34;
Regarding the Federal Reserve, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates again after the meeting on December 18. However, Bank of America stated that if the CPI data released before the meeting shows another significant month-on-month increase, &#34;the Fed may find it difficult to continue cutting rates.&#34;
Origin: Jin Ten Data

Bank of America’s latest report advises investors: Do not place too much "importance" on Friday's non-farm payroll data

- In the post-COVID era, U.S. stock markets are highly sensitive to economic data, experiencing significant volatility in response to both positive and negative surprises.  
- With Trump's election, this dynamic may shift, as his administration's policies could become more influential than macroeconomic data, with the upcoming November jobs report serving as a critical test.  
- Bank of America advises caution due to potential noise in the data, predicting job growth of 240,000, influenced by recent storms and strikes, while warning that prior employment figures have seen substantial revisions.

Has the market made a choice? Bank of America: Trump may be more important than non-farm payrolls!