On December 5th, Thursday, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time in history during intraday trading. Last April, when the trading price of Bitcoin was around $27,000, Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of emerging markets foreign exchange research and cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered, accurately predicted that the price would reach $100,000 by the end of this year. Now that Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 threshold, Kendrick is even more optimistic about the future, expecting that under the backdrop of potential increased institutional investment in Bitcoin, the price will rise to around $200,000 by the end of next year.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6408c589-9a69-4a71-9419-5d6201ee45d5.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6408c589-9a69-4a71-9419-5d6201ee45d5.jpeg"/>Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's surge to $100,000 this year is mainly due to strong support from institutional investors. Throughout 2024, the flow of investment funds into Bitcoin has been dominated by institutional investors. Standard Chartered expects this trend to continue in 2025, helping Bitcoin reach the bank's target level of approximately $200,000 by the end of 2025. Additionally, further absorption by U.S. pension funds and/or sovereign wealth funds will make Standard Chartered more optimistic about the price increase.Specifically regarding institutional fund flows, since the beginning of this year, institutions have significantly purchased Bitcoin through U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and major holders of Bitcoin, particularly the software company MicroStrategy, which is seen as a proxy for Bitcoin, with a net purchase of 683,000 Bitcoins. Among these, 245,000 Bitcoins were purchased in the weeks following the U.S. elections.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5bc7f4ee-1832-491b-9f15-4f236d49f165.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5bc7f4ee-1832-491b-9f15-4f236d49f165.jpeg"/>These fund flows are undoubtedly the driving force behind Bitcoin's recent surge and breakthrough of the $100,000 mark. What will happen in the future?Kendrick's report states that by 2025, Standard Chartered expects institutional fund flows to continue at or exceed the pace of inflows into Bitcoin seen in 2024. MicroStrategy is on track to realize the plan announced at the end of October, which aims to raise $42 billion over the next three years to purchase Bitcoin, so the purchasing volume of MicroStrategy in 2025 should reach or exceed that of 2024.Regarding U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chartered noted from the 13F filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the reported holdings of pension funds account for only 1% of the shares in the nine new Bitcoin ETFs.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/43ecd886-4a97-453b-8b56-7f914bc3c796.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/43ecd886-4a97-453b-8b56-7f914bc3c796.jpeg"/>Standard Chartered expects that with the regulatory changes following the Trump administration's arrival, traditional financial institutions will find it easier to invest in digital assets, and by 2025, the proportion of pension funds holding Bitcoin ETFs will increase. Even allocating a small portion of the total $40 trillion U.S. pension fund to Bitcoin would significantly boost the priceAgainst this backdrop, Standard Chartered believes that a target price of around $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 is achievable. If U.S. pension funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or a potential U.S. strategic reserve fund absorb Bitcoin more quickly, Standard Chartered will be even more optimistic about the price performance.Kendrick mentioned in the report that Standard Chartered had previously pointed out that the U.S. government might establish a strategic reserve fund for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered believes the probability of this fund being established is low, but if it does happen, the impact will be significant. In addition to creating a new buyer for this small asset class, the strategic reserve fund could also provide cover for other SWFs to purchase Bitcoin or disclose that those funds have already bought Bitcoin.Kendrick's report states that in July this year, when Trump mentioned the possibility of a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund, the U.S. government held 210,000 Bitcoins, accounting for about 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. Considering the scale of global foreign exchange reserves and the relatively small total market value of Bitcoin, Standard Chartered believes that the strategic reserve fund is an important upward driver for Bitcoin prices.Even if foreign reserve managers allocate just 1% of their funds to Bitcoin, the amount would be substantial and could significantly boost Bitcoin's price

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Standard Chartered believes that this year's investment flow into Bitcoin has been dominated by institutional investors and will continue to maintain or exceed this year's level next year. After the Trump administration took office, U.S. pension funds are expected to increase their allocation to Bitcoin, and if the U.S. establishes a strategic reserve fund for Bitcoin, it will also attract global sovereign wealth funds to allocate Bitcoin

- On December 5, Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the first time, a prediction made by Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick last year when Bitcoin was around $27,000.  
- Kendrick attributes this surge to strong institutional support, with significant investments from entities like MicroStrategy, which has purchased 683,000 Bitcoins this year.  
- Looking ahead, Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach approximately $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by continued institutional investment and potential changes in regulatory environments.

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After accurately predicting Bitcoin's rise to $100,000 this year, STANCHART analysts are bullish again: aiming for $200,000 by the end of next year