<p>Recently, as part of Deutsche Bank's Autonomous Driving Day, Deutsche Bank held an investor meeting with Tesla's Head of Investor Relations, Travis Axelrod.</p>
<p>The meeting focused on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD), robotaxi, and Optimus, while also discussing the status of new models for 2025 and the positive and negative impacts on profit margins.</p>
<p>After the meeting, Deutsche Bank raised Tesla's target stock price from $295 to $370, primarily reflecting a higher valuation of Tesla's autonomous driving efforts. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla's stock price has risen by 57%.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/784f4ca3-658c-4ce6-abac-fc6c1f676f81.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/784f4ca3-658c-4ce6-abac-fc6c1f676f81.png"/></p>
<p>Deutsche Bank summarized the key points of this investor meeting in the report:</p>
<h2>New Model Launch in the First Half of Next Year, Annual Sales Growth Target of 20-30%</h2>
<p>New model release plan: Tesla plans to launch a new model named &#34;Model Q&#34; in the first half of 2025, with a post-subsidy price of under $30,000, which would be $37,499 if the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit policy is eliminated. In the second half of 2025, Tesla also plans to launch other new models to expand its potential market size. It is speculated that one of these may be a three-row long-wheelbase Model Y variant launched in China.</p>
<p>Capacity growth: All these new models will be manufactured on existing production lines. <strong>Tesla reiterated that the sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, and this growth range is based on the ability to maximize existing capacity utilization</strong>.</p>
<p>Supply chain and capacity: Tesla stated that to achieve the upper end of the growth range, flawless execution is essentially required, and expressed confidence in the rapid expansion capability of the supply chain in the Chinese market, while it may be more challenging in North America.</p>
<p>Mexico factory plan: Tesla's factory plan in Mexico will continue to depend on geopolitical dynamics and tariff situations under the new Trump administration.</p>
<h2>New Product Launches Will Disrupt Profitability</h2>
<p>Product launches and profit margins: Tesla explained that 2025 will be a year of product launches, and whenever this occurs, due to products being in the early construction phase, fixed cost absorption efficiency is low, which will disrupt profitability.</p>
<p>Cost reduction: However, this impact may be offset by lower goods sales costs brought about by more affordable products.</p>
<p>Demand curve and profit margins: The profit margin in 2025 will also depend on the average selling price (ASP) determined by the demand curve.</p>
<p>Growth targets: The main goal is to focus on increasing sales volume and adding additional gross profit, rather than targeting a specific gross margin percentage, aiming at least for overall free cash flow (FCF) breakeven.</p>
<h2>Launch of Autonomous Taxi Operations Next Year</h2>
<p>Autonomous taxi service: Tesla still expects to launch an autonomous taxi service in California and Texas next year using existing vehicles (Model 3/Y), providing paid ride services
User Interface and Value Chain: In terms of user interface, the company plans to use an internally developed ride-hailing application and control the &#34;value chain.&#34;</p>
<p>Regulatory Challenges: Tesla believes that regulation is the biggest obstacle to the widespread deployment of autonomous driving taxis, and the company hopes to adjust through updates to federal-level rules.</p>
<p>Fleet Adjustment: Management intends to initially use the company's own fleet entirely and eventually adjust supply dynamically based on customer demand/traffic patterns.</p>
<h2>The expected cost to build a CyberCab will be less than $30,000</h2>
<p>Manufacturing Costs: By adopting a boxless manufacturing process, the expected cost per vehicle is projected to achieve a reduction of about $20,000 to $30,000 at operational rates, which is unattainable under current traditional manufacturing processes.</p>
<p>CyberCab Production: It is expected that when CyberCab begins production in 2026, it will be the first product to use boxless manufacturing, and any subsequent products are also expected to use the boxless process.</p>
<p>Production Cost Target: At full production capacity, the company expects the cost to build a CyberCab to be less than $30,000.</p>
<p>Investment in Services and Charging Facilities: With the launch of CyberCab in 2026, the company will need to invest in its service/cleaning and charging facilities (e.g., installing wireless charging), with Texas and California likely being the first states to roll out such services due to their proximity to manufacturing facilities and headquarters.</p>
<h2>Computing Power Drives Significant Improvement in FSD</h2>
<p>FSD Version 13: FSD Version 13 has been rolled out to early users, and if no issues are found, it typically takes 2-3 weeks to roll out to a broader audience.</p>
<p>Performance Improvement: This version is expected to demonstrate a performance improvement of 3-5 times compared to v12.5 in terms of critical intervention mileage (approximately once every 10,000 miles).</p>
<p>FSD Unsupervised Version: Management continues to target the launch of the FSD unsupervised version in the second to third quarter of next year, coinciding with the start of autonomous taxi operations.</p>
<p>Training Computing Power Improvement: The significant improvements seen over the past year can be attributed to an increase in training computing power, rising from 20,000 GPUs to about 90,000 GPUs in just 10 months.</p>
<p>FSD Adoption Rate: Tesla commented that after the V12 version was released in North America, the adoption rate increased (over 20%), compared to April of this year, and rose again during the 10/10 event.</p>
<h2>No Competitors in Autonomous Driving in Europe and America</h2>
<p>U.S./European Competition: Management does not believe there is any real competition in the U.S./Europe from a cost/scale perspective.</p>
<p>Waymo and Cruise: For pure autonomous taxi efforts like Waymo and Cruise, Tesla believes they are essentially using more sensors (e.g., lidar) to compensate for the shortcomings of rule-based software.</p>
<p>Data Generation and Scale: Unlike Tesla, which has a large customer fleet to generate sufficient data to effectively train large end-to-end models, Waymo relies on a very small fleet.</p>
<p>Competition in China: In China, Tesla has observed more entities adopting a similar end-to-end visual architecture approach
European Regulatory Challenges: For Europe, the regulations on autonomous driving create a challenging environment, as drivers must approve the vehicle's automatic responses, which undermines the purpose of autonomous driving capabilities.</p>
<p>Third Generation Dojo Chip: The third generation Dojo chip, expected to launch in 2028, will be another significant driving force, as the first generation could not compete with Nvidia in terms of cost/performance, and the second generation (2026) still cannot compete in performance (but should achieve cost parity).</p>
<h2>Optimus Progress: Over 1,000 humanoid robots to be deployed internally in factories by 2026</h2>
<p>Deployment Goal: The goal is to deploy over 1,000 humanoid robots internally in factories by 2026 and then sell them to external customers.</p>
<p>Optimus Intelligence Development: From a development perspective, the &#34;intelligence&#34; of &#34;Optimus&#34; will continue to improve and should eventually reflect the rapid advancements in FSD over the past year.</p>
<p>Manufacturing Goal: The ambitious target is to reduce the bill of materials (BoM) to around $30,000.</p>
<p>Sales Strategy: When selling to customers, the strategy may be to sell or lease the robots together with hardware and software.</p>
<h2>Others</h2>
<p>Megapack Demand: Demand for Megapack remains very strong, and the company maintains its expectation of over 100% growth this year, implying an output of about 27 GWh.</p>
<p>Legal Litigation: The company believes that the recent court ruling rejecting Musk's compensation plan is erroneous and will appeal the decision, although there is no timeline for the response</p>

TSLA

<p>Tesla 再次强调，2025 年的销量增长目标为 20-30%，这一增长基于最大化现有产能利用率的能力。FSD 过去一年的显著改进归因于训练计算能力的增加，从 20000 个 GPU 增加到大约 90000 个 GPU，仅用了 10 个月的时间</p>

- Deutsche Bank hosted an investor meeting with Tesla's investor relations head, Travis Axelrod, focusing on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD), robotaxi, and new models planned for 2025.  
- Following the meeting, Deutsche Bank raised Tesla's target stock price from $295 to $370, reflecting a higher valuation of Tesla's autonomous driving efforts, with the stock up 57% year-to-date.  
- Key points included plans for new models, production capacity growth, and the anticipated launch of autonomous taxi services next year, despite potential profitability challenges during product rollouts.

Wallstreetcn

Tesla

Tesla Investor Meeting: New models to be launched in H1 2015, annual sales growth target of 20-30%, computing power drives significant improvement in FSD, autonomous driving has no competitors in Europe and the United States