Expectations are stable but there may be variables; will CPI disrupt the Federal Reserve's rate cut rhythm?

On December 11th, Wednesday at 21:30, the United States will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Market forecasts suggest that the CPI for November will show inflation performance remaining relatively stable. Since inflation peaked in the summer of 2022, the upward pressure on prices in the U.S. has significantly eased, but as inflation approaches the Federal Reserve's target, the rate of decline has noticeably slowed. A Reuters survey indicates that economists expect the overall CPI year-on-year rate to record 2.7%, slightly higher by 0.1 percentage points than the previous value, with a month-on-month rate of 0.3%; the core CPI year-on-year rate is expected to be 3.3%, with a month-on-month rate of 0.3%. Josh Hirt, a senior U.S. economist at Vanguard, stated, "The data from the past month has not shown significant changes." He pointed out that the overall inflation rate is currently fluctuating within the range of 2.5%-3.0%. He believes that the slowdown in the progress of inflation's decline can be partly explained by base effects, as the data from the same period last year was weak, making this year's figures appear stronger, while also reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in areas such as services and housing. He expects the month-on-month core CPI for November to be 0.25%, slightly below market consensus. The pace of inflation's decline is expected to slow, facing new resistance to the Federal Reserve's targets. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that price increases in categories such as used cars, airline tickets, clothing, and auto insurance in November will exert upward pressure on inflation. Additionally, food and energy prices have also risen. Their forecast is for core CPI to grow by 0.28%, consistent with market consensus